Change that to "Stages 10/11/12 are going to be awesome" and I'd agree. Think today may well be pretty conservative for the GC riders, given a descent/flat finish, all the crashes on the cobbles 2 days ago, rest day, and 2 summit finishes to follow. Wet weather may spice things up, but that also means taking risks and I don't think any of the main GC contenders are yet in a position where they need to be taking big risks. Think it could be a good day for stage hunting from somebody who is a good climber and descender and far enough off GC to not be a threat.

If he wasn't on Sky then Bernal might be a good pick, has the climbing chops and is 15+ minutes back, but would be astonished if he was allowed off the leash and not put to work in the Sky train. Maybe somebody like Rolland who is ~5 minutes back and not really an overall GC threat? Or more of a puncheur who can climb and whose team are in need of a win, like Boasson Hagen or Calmejane?

Tomorrow and Thursday should definitely establish the GC pecking order. Today might kick off if we get lucky, but I think it's more likely that it will mostly be Sky train high tempo stuff, maybe a few digs to see who's struggling or not paying attention but not full attacks. Might be enough to winnow out anybody who is having a bad day after resting/crashing. And re the Movistar and Sky leadership politics, that situation is more likely to lead to those riders marking each other rather than attacking each other.

Valverde today.

Lest us remember stage 10 2017 is when Froome made his move.
Goooo Froome!

If GC stick together and the break is kept on a short leash then agree Valverde is the likely winner. Think in that situation then Nibali and maybe Thomas will be ones to watch as well.

Depends what plan he's on. Based on him losing a few seconds on the short climb to the finish on Stage 6 then I'm guessing he's not on the usual Tour plan of "dominate in week 1 and 2, then hang on in week 3". So more likely he's on this year's Giro plan of "damage limitation in week 1 and 2, then hit form in week 3". If so it could make for a very interesting race as he might be vulnerable in these next 3 days, and an aggressive rider like Nibali would certainly look to fully exploit any weakness.

Would be great to see the GC contest go deep into week 3 with Froome having to attack in the Pyrenees rather than defending a lead with the Sky train as we're more accustomed to seeing

In related news, Wiggins is shit-stirring - https://www.theguardian.com/...danger-rift-team-sky

I have to say that it's quite ironic him calling Brailsford "divisive and self-serving", given that nearly all of the Sky politics took place while he was on the team, and they've been a largely unified bunch since he left. Think it says more about Wiggins than it does about Sky that despite all his achievements and now having his own team (named Team Wiggins, obviously) he still feels the need to weigh in like this rather than maintaining a dignified silence.

Well, I don't think these guys can ever really "walk away"

In terms of todays stage I think post race day someone will have losses. No won will win, but someone will lose time. Weather in Annency looks good.

Really bummed Porte is out

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Totally agree. I wonder if the peloton will let Teejay stage hunt at some point now.

I want to see Nibali go nuts on that last descent and win. Is it technical enough to gap people?

It is technical and if it is wet, some will really struggle.

I don't see any big gaps coming from today's stage as all the climbs are fairly short at 7-9km with the hardest climbs in the middle of the stage. Unless there is a big attack early, the GC guys will likely neutralize each other on the Col de la Colombiere, which is not that hard of a climb (or rather one that is long enough or steep enough to create big gaps).

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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
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I watched the women's race on the trainer this morning, and I think we could see some fireworks today. 2 steep climbs in a row with only a descent in-between would allow for another Froome Giro type attack from way out. The last descent is fast, but lots of switchbacks. So whoever is good at getting through those sharp turns without scrubbing speed will be able to put good time on people. And there's a little bump at the end where people could lose a few seconds as well.

Annamiek rode an impressive ride this morning!

Is he good enough to stage hunt? He's been pretty anonomous for a while, or have I just not been paying attention?

For most of his career it has seemed that he is only mentioned as a contender because there's no other riders from the US at the moment who can serve that purpose. That's not a criticism, just an observation! If he was from Britain, Italy, France, Germany, Spain, Columbia....... wouldn't he have been dismissed as a top rank contender long ago?

I don't disagree, this is definitely terrain that one could take time, if they are willing to do so with the next two days (which are tougher) looming.

Having ridden these climbs, I do believe they are too short for the GC guys to do much damage to each other. Could be wrong, and the guys who don't make the transition from the nervous flat stages well could lose big.

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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
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A quiet day as far as any major moves by the GC riders today? Maybe Bardet will try to take back some time?

Definitely some quiet time in the Green Jersey competition over the next three days. Only three more stages left in the race for the sprinters, and Sagan looks to have a comfortable lead, but you never know what might happen.

The Green Jersey is the "points competition", not necessarily the "sprint jersey", and it's interesting to see how Sagan manages to win the jersey. Figuring that Gaviria and Groenwegen are the two fastest sprinters this year (and throwing in Cav for you Dev), here's how they've been doing this year. (No points were awarded for the TTT.)

Stage
Name (Stage Place)(Stage Points)(Cumulative Points)

Stage 1
Sagan (2)(37)(37)
Gaviria (1)(63)(63)
Groenwegen (6)(14)(14)
Cav (36)(8)(8)

Stage 2
Sagan (1)(67)(104)
Gaviria (28)(15)(78)
Groenwegen (32)(0)(14)
Cav (35)(0)(8)

Stage 4
Sagan (2)(39)(143)
Gaviria (1)(61)(139)
Groenwegen (4)(18)(32)
Cav (21)(0)(8)

Stage 5
Sagan (1)(37)(180)
Gaviria (117)(8)(147)
Groenwegen (165)(0)(32)
Cav (163)(0)(8)

Stage 6
Sagan (8)(19)(199)
Gaviria (161)(9)(156)
Groenwegen (156)(0)(32)
Cav (151)(3)(11)

Stage 7
Sagan (3)(35)(234)
Gaviria (2)(47)(203)
Groenwegen (1)(50)(82)
Cav (10)(7)(18)

Stage 8
Sagan (2)(43)(277)
Gaviria (93)(11)(214)
Groenwegen (1)(50)(132)
Cav (8)(10)(28)

Stage 9
Sagan (5)(22)(299)
Gaviria (13)(4)(218)
Groenwegen (159)(0)(132)
Cav (52)(0)(28)

Gaviria was caught out by a crash on Stage 2 and the relegation on Stage 8 didn't help. Groenwegen had a slow start and he hasn't been very interested in picking up points in the intermediate sprints. Cav has fallen off. The "sprinters" didn't even try to keep up on Stages 5 and 6. But it's impressive that Sagan was never out of the top ten in any of the stages up to now. Throw in Sagan's efforts to pick up points on the intermediate sprints and it's obvious who ought to be leading the Green Jersey competition.

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

Greg said he would try to defend the gold, and being as this is just day one of the mountains i don't think any of the GC riders are really going to attack that hard today. I can see BMC keeping him close enough to keep yellow by a hair, but this descent into the finish screams of Nibali or Valverde breaking away alone (or together) to me. Then again it wouldn't be the first time Froome attacked on a descent.

I don't think SKY tries anything major until stage 12 when they try to grind everyone into oblivion and let Froome deliver at "Watt Sandwich".

my .02

Other ex-riders manage to comment on cycling without sounding quite so bitter about their old team and colleagues.

I agree with your assessment on Sky. They will put on a show sooner or later, it's just a matter of when.

Hopefully Sky and Movistar got ballistic on each other at the Lance vs Jan "the look" switchback near the bottom of Alpe d'Huez

I fully expect that to happen! I was standing on Alpe d'Huez at the 5km to go mark in 2015 and those guys were balls to the wall racing up that thing. It was stage 20 and Quintana was on a breakaway, but it should be a very intense race this time around. I still can't believe Pinot won the stage that day in hindsight.

I can't wait to watch today's stage. I have been in work meetings all day. Sounds like the GC battle was a bit of a snoozer though

I wonder what is happening with Zakarin. After he won Romandie a few years ago and some very gutsy stage hunting I always thought he would turn into a very solid GC rider. But after his giro crash in 16 he seems to always miss a tiny bit.

Not that I am a fan after his shady past. But I thought he always raced with grit.

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

Well tomorrow's shorter 100 km stage SHOULD make the GC battle more of a full gas affair. Wed will be a snoozer over Madeleine and Croix de Fer and a bit of a GC procession/poker game untl they get to the 3rd or 4th switchback on Alpe d'Huez....but I hope that Sky riding tempo does not nullify the attacks early on Alpe d'Huez, but I think that is what happens. Unless Movistar can somehow play the two climber card!