Lydiard had some interesting thoughts on marathon times in one of his books and concluded around 2:08 was about the best time possible from a physiological standpoint.

Well, with due respect to Lydiard, obviously that theory is shot to ____.

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Adrian in Vancouver

well...

what's the record right now, 2'06"?

i'd say that's pretty close...and the gap from 2'08" to 2'06" is a lot smaller than the gap from 06 to <00".

Although...it does depend on the course, apparently there is one in las vegas that's negative elevation for the course? i could see something like that being feasible.



although...lydiard didn't fathom periodization...so that might come into play?

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"Anyone can work hard when they want to; Champions do it when they don't."

The marathon record is under 2:05, Paul Tergat ran 2:04:55 in 2003 and I might be wrong but someone may have surpassed it since then. I think over the next decade times in the marathon will continue to drop fairly dramatically, the amount of talent in the distance seems to be growing, I might even say there are more "stars" (Khannouci, Gebresellasie, Tergat for example) competing in the marathon then any other distance event. If sub 2:00 is a possibility I would love to see it, I definitely think 2:04 or even 2:03 will be broken sooner rather then later.

the difference between 2.08 and 2.04 is probably the equivalent in terms of improving performance of going from 3.20 to sub 3? its huge but with people like Bekele and his younger brother who's actually faster than Bekele at the same age, faster marathon times are inevitable.

The question should not be IF the record will go sub 2, but WHEN.

I believe Bekele has said he thinks he could go 2-03.

Here's a graph of how the record has improved. Looks like we could be waiting 50 years or so, but it's definitely going to happen.

Doug Clark

The problem with looking at a graph like that is that you can draw a line of best fit and follow it along until the marathon time drops to 1 hour as well :) Sooner or later there will be a physical limit that just can't be overcome and the records will just level out.

ok...here may be a better question.



will the women ever catch the men?



as for going under 2...it may happen when someone either builds a better athlete, or builds better drugs... ;P

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"Anyone can work hard when they want to; Champions do it when they don't."

The first six miles of the course are slightly downhill, but there are still faster courses around - Rotterdam and Chicago for example.

Gebrselassie promised to rip it up in 2002 by doing the first half in 60 minutes - he was there or thereabouts and then died on his arse. It was something like his second ever marathon. So you'll excuse me for taking this story with a pinch of salt.

The first six miles may be slightly downhill, but its still a legal course, meaning that the net downhill must be miniscule. Also their is a bit of rough road that was taken out.

I can see a sub two hour but it is going to take an extraodinary athlete on a perfect day.

Even with Tergat running sub 2:05 the course wasn't perfect, and with all due respect Tergat was a bit past his prime. Not that he was old or anything, but like many of the top athletes, he didn't move up to the marathon until he wasn't able to win gold at the WC or Olys. (I realize that he never won their, but he certainly thought he could). The combination of younger, faster competitors and him slowing slightly caused him to move up.

So now take the brothers Bekele. Kenny is faster at 10 Km than Tergat by a decent bit and probably has more to come. Suppose he decides to take a shot at the marathon record? Assuming he can handle the distance, and his ability to double at worlds cross suggests he does, he has the following advantages over Tergat:

A) Faster runner @ 10 Km

B) He can find a faster course

C) He can find a rabbit for the first 18 miles or so (either gebresallassie, or his brother) and draft.

Obviously everything has to go his way, but I can see him taking 2 minutes off the record at least which puts 2:00 tantalizingly close.



Styrrell

Interesting.

The 10K times that the top runners are running would indicate that it's a possibility. However, even on flat courses, with the best competition the men are barely breaking 1:00 for a 1/2 Marathon. I think that is where the key indicator will come from. Can they run, even splits of 1:00/1:00 or a slight positive/negative variation of that to get to 2:00 for the marathon?

Fleck

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

When racing you only go as fast as you have to.It's all about winning.Maybe with the right incentive and co-operation we might see the time come down.I doubt it will happen soon.
Cullen

I agree with you Fleck. The hour run will be the indicator if it is possible.

I also think that taking 4'55" off the record is not conceivable in the short-term at this level of performance. The earliest I see it happening is when a stellar runner that show promise in their youth now (like Bekele's brother) moves up to marathon after only a few years of setting the standard in the 10,000 while they are still young enough to take the punishment that the marathon delivers.

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Adrian in Vancouver

Actually in many of the major marathons, there are SIGNIFICANT financial incentives to run fast times either course records or world bests. Rabbits are even paid extremely well to get the key contenders to certain places on the course in time XX. They have special vehicles who drive the course to pick the rabbist up when they drop out. There is an elaborate set up to deliver fast times, because to have the World Best set on your course is a huge thing for a race - look at the news and hype surrounding London this year.

Funny why this does not seem to work in triathlon.

Fleck

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

The only way is with a 10 man paceline, all running at just over 21.1K per hour and dropping out every 5 K or so. The apointed dude who is to break 1:59.59, would not stick his nose in the wind until the final 5K. Of course you need the second last guy to concede that he will empty his tank for the eventual sub 2 guy. Given the required pace, you pretty well need the top 5-10 guys in the world working towards this together, unlikely to happen.

I doubt we will see sub 2 in our lifetime !

Indeed, when Paul Tergat set the Marathon World Best, it was his final pacer and rabbit who was with him righ up until the final 100 metres. I think this guy was supposed to drop out at some point but he ended up hanging in there and recording the second fastest time in history!

Fleck

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

I could pace set the first 1/2 mile ;)

Will I be paid well?

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Adrian in Vancouver

I wonder if the race organizers would ever allow pace setters to start off at various points along the course.

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Adrian in Vancouver

Normal people don't really have a sense how fast these guys are running. I had a friend who tried to stay up with the leaders of the Vancouver Sun run 10K on his bike, and it was killing him! Even a fit person would have a hard time lasting one lap or even less on the track.

To stand right on the side of a track and see a field of world class distance runners run by, is an extraordinary sensation. It's almost like standing on the side of a road watching a bike race - these guys create their own wind!

Fleck

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Well I think that is against the rules.

Even pacing of the kind we see now( start, pace/rabbit for a bit then drop out), is in theory against IAAF rules, but it goes on all the time. However, almost every major track and road record has been set this way. Obviously a blind eye is being turned to this.

Fleck

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

Fleck, as we all know, RD's can pay "appearance fees" and athletes (who also happen to be pace rabbits) can "drop out", so clearly, there is no way of policing it.

I would say that running at 20 kph, the draft is about the same and biking at 30 kph due to the fact that a runner is in a sail like position and has all finds of drag. I know in XC ski races were we have a "runner like position" averaging 20 kph, drafting is huge.

A sub 2 hour marathon will not come about as a result of improved training, it will come about as a result of improved pharmacology.

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"A society is defined not only by what it creates, but by what it refuses to destroy."
John Sawhill

[reply]A sub 2 hour marathon will not come about as a result of improved training, it will come about as a result of improved pharmacology.[/reply]

Phooey. The improvements that can come to even elite runners through improve training technique is huge. We are not anywhere close to the marathon physiological limit, even without PED's. You sound like the people 50 years ago who were saying sub 4 minute mile was physiologically impossible. Sub 2 hours in the next 10-15 years is almost a certainty in my book.

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Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks

Frank,

The World Marathon best, has been dropping in a gradual linear fashion since Derek Clayton's long standing record at 2:09 was broken( Many thought that was untouchable). I agree with you, I think that if these guys were using PED's the drop in the times would have been more significant and dramatic. However, maybe I have my head in the sand.

The women's marathon times have REALLY dropped recently, but I think what we are seeing there is a catching up. Women were not allowed to race longer than 1500m on the track, or do any road races up until the early 1970's!

Fleck

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog