https://www.trirating.com/...21-may-1st-seedings/

Magnus and maybe Long are going under 2hrs on the ride unless it’s a terrible wind day

It's early enough in the day that they may be off their bikes, before it is "terribly" windy.
But they day will have terrible wind. It's St. George.

Sub 2 bike split on a course with 3,000 ft elevation gain? That would be pretty incredible.

ETA: Sub 2 would be at least 1:15 under Sebi's 2018 course record. Couldn't find any descriptions of the conditions that year.

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Darren
https://www.strava.com/athletes/12385497

Sub 2 on that course would be a hell of a feat. I'm no Sam Long or Ditlev but I'm 13 minutes slower on that course than I am on the Boulder 70.3... the course is a little different this year than in the past but all the significant climbs are still there. I'm hoping they replaced the awful chipseal of the first 5 miles with nice asphalt given the construction of the new road. That'll speed things up a tiny bit.

The tri rating predictions for the men seem slightly better than random. Their predictions for the women seem better but I'd move Moench further up the list, assuming she is recovered well. She's been racing a lot which may affect her.

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Ed O'Malley
www.VeloVetta.com
Founder of VeloVetta Cycling Shoes
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Speaking of Ditlev, does anyone know what happened to him today in Florida? Seems to have dropped out about 6 miles into the run. Nothing on Instagram so far.

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Benjamin Deal - Professional - Instagram - TriRig - Lodi Cyclery
Deals on Wheels - Results, schedule, videos, sponsors

Does anyone think they are actually predictions or just best times added up on a spreadsheet? As far as I can see Thorsten doesn't take into account current or improving form or even physical suitability of an athlete over a specific run or bike course. He's also wrong an awful lot.

That's a good question. I don't know the exact methodology employed to make these predictions, I think I read it is based on past results and does a statistical analysis to predict the race results. Not sure it takes into account, current form, course profile, etc.

I just think it's an interesting talking point to get the discussion going about race day and make predictions, whether we agree with the predictions or not. :-)

Yeha good question, wondered that myself.

I know he is a strong biker, but is he just overbiking every time?