Every year we talk about how the strong bikers will break away from the known "tactical" racers and change the way the race is won. Every year they fade because they put too much effort on the bike and it haunts them on the run. I feel many disregard how well Reid, Deboom, Brown, etc. can ride. If a weaker runner puts significant time into these, no weakness athletes, they will pay for it late in the run if not sooner.

Yes Larsen is a great athlete, but he will not be in the top five this year. Macca is a different story as he is a complete triathlete. However, If Macca rides with Larsen he will blow up on the run. If he rides with the germans he will be caught late in the run.

This post means nothing if LVL shows up as the LVL of old. If this is the case he will win no matter what is thrown at him.

agree on LVL...if this is the 96-99 LVL, he is untouchable. great swimmer, can bike with everyone but SL (he stayed with hellriegel in 96) and is definitely the best runner in the field.

Did he really beat Deboom soundly a couple of times? I thought he beat him at Eagleman and by not much.

Either way, has Luke Bell been tested on the full IM? How's he fared at that distance?And Hawaii is a test on completely different level than any other race, in my opinion.

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And the road gets rocky along the way
But if it gets too smooth, it's time to call it a day
-Kinks

Luke spanked Tim at Eagleman, 7 minutes. My bad on the second time, Luke won Vineman and I thought he beat Tim, but I was reminded it was Steve Larsen. And yes, he was at Hawaii IM last year, 16th

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Irony can be humorous, but it does not have to be.

"I've always said that an Ironman is a reflection of your character" - Kevin Moats

Heather's tough--winning in the heat both times this year--but those wins were in the 9:40's

What the heck - I'll take a shot:

Men's:

1. LVL or Macca

2. Macca or LVL

3. TDB

4. Cam B

5. SL

Dark Horse Winner picks: Michael Lovato - he won IMCDA and beat Spencer Smith.



Womens:

1. N.B.

2. L.B.

3. F.K.

4. H.F.

5. G.K.

Dark Horse Winner Pick: I will go with Gina Kehr. She had a great second place at IMUSA and is awesome.

We also have a rookie Kona age grouper here in S.F. who is fire on the bike (once he gets his butt out of the water) and can post a decent run. He won't win it...unless a tidal wave takes out a a bunch of lead groups...but it will be very interesting to see what Michael Tymoff can do in the age group category.

Alan

hi,
this year will nina kraft win in a hard 'battle' in front of natscha, lori 3rd. mens race is IMO more difficult. but it can be another german year. they are all in (very) good shape, have to do it better, than last year. i would bet a bit on it:

1 of them (lothar, normann or thomas perhaps) in top3, another one top6, 2 other top 10.

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kind regards
Kai Baumgartner

Macca has done the best to prep for the race. He did not foolishly compete in the Lifetime sprint because he is focusing on a IM. We saw how bad TBD did because I can only bet that he was training for an Ironman when he raced this summer for Lifetime.

I am not saying that is absolutely correct, because the good lord knows it doesn't matter what distance I'm training for, I'll be finishing when the volunteers are eating pizza and relaxing. I don't understand though how Macca is going to race in phoenix only a couple weeks later in a half IM?

I agree that Macca is very well prepared. We has been training in Cairns, Far North Queensland, Australia for several weeks getting "cooked" just like you do in Kona!

The weather was been stinking hot here in Honolulu for the last few weeks - "Kona winds" as we locally call them. I can only imagine what Kona will be like in 18 days!

...and I just got my Kona IM volunteer info today - I am working the transition area which will be absolutley awesome, especially since this year T1 and T2 are in the same area.

Go Macca!

"Hairy Legs" - an Aussie living in Hawaii

[reply][And I would have gone with Karen Thurig as my female pic, however, I believe she is not going to be in Kona this year. [/reply]

Karin Thürig will be racing in Hawaii. But it is not her mai focus. She will do the TT worls in a week (October 8th) in Hamilton CA. Ten days later she will start in Hawaii:
http://www.karinthuerig.ch/Seite/Wettkampfdaten2003.htm



Felix

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http://www.weilenmann.ch.vu

Natascha can only beat herself. That has only happened once before, I think.

There will always be a soft spot in my heart for Tim DeBoom after 2001 (I was there to watch). As long as Macca keeps talking smack instead of just shutting up and proving himself in Kona, I can't cheer for him. His attitude puts me off. Peter Reid and Cam Brown are both great guys so I hope they stay at the top this year too.

I'm with you on Deboom & Macca.

One guy wins Kona for a second year in a row in incredibly tough conditions. His bike time is 8 minutes slower than an incredible cyclist who blew his brains out on the bike and disintegrated on the run. But everyone seems to think the guy who blew up is a hero and the new "hope and future for the sport" just because he told everyone before hand ( and after and...) he was going to go so hard he would probably blow up.

The easiest thing to do is to go too hard on the bike. What is so heroic about that. The hardest thing to do is to win.

Amen. I'm tired of the uber-biker rhetoric and I won't buy it (at least in the case of IMH) until proven otherwise.

There is something inspiring about a guy laying it all out on the line while everybody else sits back watching each other. I wouldn't call it heroic, but I would call it brave. This kind of racing is what made Pre an icon. It's the same thing that makes people root for the breakaways in the Tour de France.

I have to agree with east coast and say we'll see a surprising strong finish from Luke Bell. That kid is STRONG!

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Andy

'You'd be surprised how many people violate this simple principle every day of their lives and try to fit square pegs into round holes, ignoring the clear reality that Thinsg Are As They Are.'

I think you can call it brave, heroic, or whatever. I do not feel it is anymore brave or heroic than running down the leaders one by one later on.

This is all just "tactics". Macca, SL, etc. are just using their strengths to try and win the race. The same is true for TDB, Reid, etc. Macca is doing the occasional trash talking to bait these guys into foregoing their proven game plan.

My prediction is SL melting early in the run and Macca fading late in the run yet holding onto top 3-5.

All-in-all very fun.

The Macca mouth is just old by now. The guy runs his mouth so much it's annoying. His comments after last year's IMH were just low class. He discredited Deboom and Reid, saying they didn't bike hard enough and that the girls almost biked as hard as them. The last I checked, some 70 old nun beat Macca to the finish line. He didn't even finish the race. It's the world championships, for crying in the sink, and he calls it quits b/c he was having a hard day on the run. After watching last year's race on tv, I was really impressed with Lothar Ledar (I think it was him) and Karen Smyers. They both blew up and were literally brought to a standstill. What did they do? They swallowed their pride and finished the race, even though they were way out of contention. Hope Macca learned something from them.

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___________________________
And the road gets rocky along the way
But if it gets too smooth, it's time to call it a day
-Kinks

"There is something inspiring about a guy laying it all out on the line while everybody else sits back watching each other."

I think there is something inspiring about a guy running a 2:50 marathon in 100 degree heat while others quit because they "bravely" outbiked the winner by only a few minutes. The winner must not have sat back and watched too much.

I do agree its fun to watch the bikers go out hard. It definitely makes it more interesting to watch. But the winner's check goes to the fastest overall time not to the bike prime.

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"It is better to just strike a straight blow with a crooked stick than to spend your whole life trying to straighten the damn thing out!" (Bill Oncken)

Don't overlook Lothar Leder for the overall victory. He is focused on Kona this year. After the amazing sprint victory over Macca in Roth, he's the man to beat. Experienced, fit and tough as nails. Rested too perhaps.

Second will go to TDB, then Cam Brown, Reid, and yes, fifth to Hellreigel.

Women: Badmann, Kraft, Fuhr, Bentley, Bowden. PNF, gets in the top ten.

Anybody know if Chan McRae is gonna race Kona? I went to his website and he has IMFL on his schedule but not Kona.

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E-Z

--It ain't a good idea to swim near MY bubbles!

Sorry. Going to have to weigh in here - there is far too much flack being thrown at Macca here for someone not to stick up for him.

So the guy talks himself up? How is that different from every other elite sportsman out there? These guys talk big because it is all on the line (ie. it is there profession and livelihood) and they will use every means possible, including psychological motivation, to get themselves to a point where they BELIEVE that they will win. If you don't like someone, don't pay attention to them.

My tips - Macca and Bell to go one-two!!

But seriously, I think TdB is and incredible athlete and will win.

Chicks race? Natascha, all the way.

Don't know but several of the top guys do Florida if they don't feel they have a change to win (or podium) at Kona rather than waste the money (it is an expensive race for them even with home stay). Raynard Tissink for one is not going to Kona but going to Florida - at least as of the last time I talked to him. McCrae may be doing the same thing.

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Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks

Leder isn't the man to beat. And neither are Peter Reid, Chris McCormack, Steve Larsen, Cameron Brown, Luc Van Lierde or anyone else. Tim DeBoom is the man to beat; he's the two time defending champion, and he has proven that he knows how to win the race. All the strategies the others have tried have yet to work. DeBoom runs a controlled, efficient race, and the result is the title of IM World Champion AND a pretty big payday. Until you beat the man, you can't be the man. DeBoom hasn't been beaten in Hawaii in two years. Right now, he is the man.

On the women's side, it's Natascha for the same reasons. She's the one to beat. Nothing I've seen recently makes me think that anyone will beat her unless she makes a mistake.

DeBoom and Badmann. Again.

RP

Absolutely!!! Blowing up is easy. Getting your butt handed to you on a plate and finishing anyway is what brave really means.

Chann is not racing Kona and is racing Florida. I'm excited - he's my guest coach while my regular coach, Jamie Cleveland, is in Kona!