Nobody really knows

Racing started here in Oz and in some Asian locations four months ago.
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 It did last Fall in Texas at least on a limited basis.

Just our of curiosity where do you live and how old are you (in terms of getting the vaccine). Congrats that you don't have to worry about this for yourself and potentially giving this to others. That must be a relief.

Like the Santos Tour Down Under and the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race?

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no sponsors | no races | nothing to see here

What about the vaccine means he can't give it to others?

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The Sunshine Coast 70.3 was held in mid September,Ironman Cairns in Late September,the Hervey Bay 100 was run in November,the Queensland Triathlon series has been underway for months,Busselton 70.3 held in mid October. The Noosa leg of the Ocean Swim Series in on next month and a week later the first running of the Ultra355k Australia will be held in Hervey Bay.The list goes on and on.

The two bike races you mentioned were only cancelled because of logistics involving quarantine for a huge number of overseas professionals and assorted race staff.To replace the usual cycling festival the Santos Festival of Cycling begins next week.
Santos Festival of Cycling | January 2021 | Tour Down Under

Plenty of other sports are up and running
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Racing resumed in the southeast US last fall. I expect the spring FL and TX races to happen and the spring TN races are iffy. I do not expect any early races in CA, HI, MI, northeast, etc. Early races in ID, VA, OK, etc. are probably iffy as well.

If I remember, you live in Massachusetts. If so, based on the State's Covid plan, mass public athletic events (e.g. road races, triathlons, bicycle races) are not allowed until Phase 4. Phase 4 occurs once the vaccine is readily available and administered. Presumably, all the infection rate hurdles in the lower phases must also be met. Give that, the early season races (May, June and probably July) are a no-go. The August and September races may occur. Maybe we'll get lucky and there will be some Cyclocross this year.

The BAA is planning on a fall (October-ish) Marathon but that is still up in the air.

Curious on your thoughts for IMCDA in late June?

Or IMCOZ late November?

;-)

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Dan Empfield
aka Slowman

I don't know anything and this only a guess:

Ironman figured out how to run Ironman Florida (anyone can argue whether this was good idea or not... I'm just saying they got the race in).

Just thinking about US IM races... My guess is that if things are going in the right direction, like others have said, in certain geographies... some spring races happen. And then more races happen in summer... with momentum starting in July/August.
I believe Kona happens.

I don't believe America will wait for everything to be completed be sorted in relation to infection rates, vaccination rates, etc. As soon as people get vaccines and numbers go down... and as soon as there is a feeling (and media reporting of).. "new admin is getting this under control"... people will start moving again, traveling again. I believe in a very significant way. Will this likely be the right thing to do for US as a whole? No. Will it probably extend virus impact longer than is necessary? Probably.

In all of this, I believe events like Ironman will find a way to get a lot of races done. Too much riding on it for all parties involved. Some may not happen due to individual race circumstances.

Will the races have to be run in very different way? Yes. But they have the protocols and plans in place...so no scrambling to figure out. Will people likely have to make a choice whether they think it's safe? Yes. I think this is where we will see the most heartache (for athletes, etc). Do you feel confident in racing? Many will. Many will not.

No idea on those two. My opinion is based on recent race activity (did they have any races in 2020) combined with local political patterns and Coronavirus numbers. ID's cases & deaths look like they are flattening out, so that helps optimism for a spring race. I have not been following their politics.

Cozumel? No idea. Mexico's numbers are not looking great now, but November is a very long way away. And, Cozumel is a tourist destination. And, the vaccine should be broadly deployed by 3Q

One thing in favor of some spring races happening is that once the first round of vaccines are out to the high risk groups then the death rates should plummet and people are more likely to get more lax about it as a whole. not saying that it is necessarily "right" to become lax at this point but id expect society as a whole to start becoming more lax as death rates drop and people in general being eager to get back to things being semi-normal

but I think consensus is that June/July/August is when more races will start happening than not but in the spring there still will be some races location dependent

Handheart is right I live in Massachusetts. I’m 40 years old. Got it on dec 23rd and get my second dose this afternoon. Thanks it’s actually a relief that I’m helping the US slowly crawl to normalcy as well.

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I still lapped everyone on the couch!

*less likely to give it to others.

Currently training for IMTX. I give it a 50/50 at best. Probably wind up being pushed to October in Waco again. Which honestly I would not mind.

[pink] Oh and did racing ever even stop in Mexico? [/pink]

Where I live in Canada as a healthy 55 year old, I doubt I get anywhere close to a vaccine by June or July based on current projections. So I am just hoping that our current lockdown with a stay at home order ends 28 days from now, so I can see my parents, go to a pool and do basic things. I am hoping for small local tri, run and open water swim events with or without vaccine this summer

they have resumed in different forms. But maybe you should have rephrased your question to "when will over priced pampered race like events return with finisher chutes, finisher medals, and participation clothing/gear to brag about your participation - be back?"

Ontario?
I am in NS and given our 'bubble', and the current message from government that they won't open the bubble (to drop the 2 week quarantine requirement) until 70% are vaccinated, means that even if IM races in Quebec or elsewhere are held, I won't be able to go.

2022 for the win! (IF the vaccines actually prove to work).......

I am also training for IMTX and I'd give it the same odds. It's tough training for the same race for a second year in a row when I half expect it will be postponed again. But I don't want to lose my money by not training and then having the race go forward. I'm sure it's a dilemma that many face.

I am not so worried about IM racing. Local time trial format open water, run and tri racing should be doable whether people are vaccinated or not within whatever size of outdoor groups end up being allowed. By this summer 50-200 person events could fit into that. Quebec was allowing 250 person last summer.

Our largest local sprint/oly tri announced yesterday, that they are a go for June. Our traditional New Years race series raced live. A week later, our largest state trail racing series, kicked off live. The races are following covid precautions, but in our area (Kansas), real racing has returned to it’s normal schedule.

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Athlinks / Strava

I would put myself at the more nervous end of the spectrum in terms of COVID, but I'm not that worried about infections from participating in the race itself. The risk comes from the travel and people eating indoors around the event. There is also the question as to whether it's feasible or fair to place greater stress on the local health care system by either helping injured athletes or diverting medical personnel to a race. Harris County is currently at Level 1 (Stay Home) and Montgomery County does not seem to have COVID under control at all (see the images below taken from its COVID dashboard). The situation needs to improve significantly in the next three months if we are going to race.