Well you can probably agree to disagree with me too then:-)

I ran 11.8 on a 100 meter track without any specific training at age 17 (apart from soccer) and could not run 5 k without stopping constantly. 12 years later I ran 10 k in 32.50 and a bit later a marathon in an ironman in 3.01. I'm still a relatively slow endurance runner but not as slow as I used to be. I was 20 years old before I could run 10 k in less than 40 minutes. Now I can't run a sprint to save my own life. I know there's a lot of 'evidence' out there to suggest you can't change your genetics and maybe you can't, but my findings are real!

Chase your dreams:-)

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Tommy 'Torpedo' Nielsen

http://www.torpedonielsen.dk

PED's?

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Fortitudine Vincimus

I would say that for 99.5% of the population going from 10:30 to 8:30 is impossible...that is 995 out of a 1000 person field or 1990 out of a 2000 person field. Out of 2000 people, maybe 10 people can go sub 8:30 if they put the work in....like Jonnyo or Gordo, or Tom Evans or Peter Reid (Peter was 10:2x in his first Kona).

Its just like out of 200000 people, only a few will make it to the NHL, or MLB or graduate top of the law faculty at Oxford University. Its just basic statistics...not everyone will excel at something even if they put the work in...but for a few it is possible, WITH THE WORK....you may be one of them, and the only way to do it is to put the work in....you may only end up at 10:05 or you may end up being the 8:15 guy...

Dev

So, what is your point?

I have read articles saying they can take a person off a coach with "genetics", give them a little training, and they would kick
the pants off of many marathon runners who have trained their entire life.

Why so upset? I know I got better genetics that most. Nothing wrong with that. BUT, if you do not use them, you never
knew you had them.

Again, whats the issue? Who cares about finishing time. What is important is one does chase their dreams, based on what
life has handed them. So, who cares if it is a 10K in 32.5, or 42.5. There is always someone faster or slower.
And now a days, if someone if fast, you are right it probably is not genetics, it might be steroids.

Dave

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Dave Campbell | Facebook | @DaveECampbell | h2ofun@h2ofun.net

Boom Nutrition code 19F4Y3 $5 off 24 pack box | Bionic Runner | PowerCranks | Velotron | Spruzzamist

Lions don't lose sleep worrying about the sheep

[reply]
There's paying what you think it costs, and then there is what it reallys costs - most of us are afraid to find out what it really costs.[/reply]

Exceptional! I'd like to use that as a sig line. Very good post as a whole...we have forgotten what many have paid to become great.

Of course Dev has a point, but wouldn't you like to know if you are one of those people? Only one way to find out:-)

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Tommy 'Torpedo' Nielsen

http://www.torpedonielsen.dk

Hi Dave

I agree a 100% with you on that one and that's why I like to see Thungerlegs getting into the process and see how far he can go:-) Generics or not!

Agreed 32.5 or 42.5 could be exactly the same joy of achievement. No doubt. (a finish time does not define you as a person)

No issue at all. I just don't like to see someone give up on a dream that might be achievable.

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Tommy 'Torpedo' Nielsen

http://www.torpedonielsen.dk

Comparing going 8:30 to making the NHL or MLB or becoming a top faculty member at Oxford is is not a correct analogy. It is actually much different. And so no, it is not just a function of basic stastitics. The question is whether what percentage of the population could achieve an 8:30 ex ante if they were to put in the required amount of time and volume training versus what perceange of the population chould make it to the NHL, MLB, etc ex ante if they were to put in the required trainining. The answer to the former is the same regardless of time spent training because there is a limited demand and hence limited number of spots for NHL, MLB players etc. That is, because of competition for those spots, only a certain percentage of the population will become MLB NHL players regardless of training time and volume. When one person attains an MLB spot, that necessarily excludes someone else from attaing the spot. And so if everyone were to train in the same way, the only ones attainging the spots would be the ones with better genetics. On the other hand, two people finishing 8:30 in an ironman is not mutually exclusive. Assuming all else equal (including genetics), one person (and everyone in the population) can finish 8:30 without excluding any other person from doing so as well. So the analogy is incorrect. What still needs to be answered, however, is whether 99% of the population has the genetics, if they put in the time and volume to train, could they finish in 8:30. On that, I agree with you that I don't think 99% of the population could, but I think the percenatge is probably a lot higher than some on ST seem to suggest.

Aerobike...agreed, my analogy is not entirely correct, in that there are limited slots in MLB vs potentially endless slots in the sub 8:30 club.

How about this one....let's use the sub 10.5 second 100m club. No matter how hard most people train, they will never get there....is sub 10.5 in sprinting and sub 8:30 Ironman equivalent...I don't think so...but maybe sub 11s for 100m and sub 8:30 for Ironman, regardless of how hard you train....sub 11 is not crazy fast, but its up there as is sub 8:30....people can get there with work...can 1 out of 100 from the general population get to sub 11 and sub 8:30 with work....I think that sounds about right...its still pretty exclusive.

I don't for a second believe that 99% of people can get to sub 8:30 with work...I only believe that 1% or less can. I know a shitload of age groupers and pros that have put in pro zone hours and quality training and never even cracked 9...just cause Jonnyo, Garret McGayden, Peter Reid and Gordo did it (the outliers in the last 10 years of IMC) does not mean 99% of people can get there...in fact, 99% will fail no matter what...its just the way things works...not everyone can be excellent at everything...we each have to find that aspect of life where can be good/the best....it may not be triathlon...it might be at Schrodinger's equations, lifting weights, public speaking, organizing races, or trading futures on the DRAM spot market...

Dev

 
Peter Reid DNFed his first Kona

Your kidding right?

Gordo's story: Be independently wealthy and throw as much money and time at triathlon as possible, including switching hemisphere's ever 6 months. Not very realistic or plausible for most is it?


I know guys who tough it out in cold winters, work full time jobs and go well under 9 hours. They truly know how to HTFU.

Absolutely!!!!

I hate when people say what "can't" be done.

I'm sure a 10:30 can become 8:30 bye most if the commitment and hard work is there.

[reply]
I would bet that 99+% of humanity could go an 8:30 IM if they were willing to commit to the level Gordo and other fast/faster pros have.
[/reply]

Does that include all of those obese people in Florida in electric wheelchairs? Or are they the unfortunate 1%?

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Andrew

http://www.theyogapod.com

Timeline is long... years. Haven't decided to dedicate myself to it yet, but debating. The problem for me is that I'm not sure I want to dedicate my life to it, there's way too much else in life to do. That would be my biggest limiter.

Very true, I agree wholeheartedly. Someone can "think" they can do it all they want, but until they get out there you never really know where in the spectrum they stand. But I do believe that the number of people who can put together an 8:30 is skewed to a smaller number because more people just don't have any interest in trying. I'm not sure if I have the interest or not, kicking the idea around...

I think that if you have the inclination to go for it then you should. I agree with the $$$ thing, see, you would probably need to be able to put in lots of 30-40 hour weeks of training plus TONS of rest time off your feet which would make it really hard to have much of a job. I really think that the faster the time, the fewer the folks that can do it. I see no reason why a person with some athletic ability who is willing to put in the time can't break 11 hours. I think those same folks if they have a good day and the right course can go sub 10. 8:30 would be sick and it is an awesome goal if you think it is do able.

For me, Im starting a bit slower, first a sub 11 ( I have had a few ugly finishes myself) after that, the sub 10 at IMFL ( a fast course). My major goal though is to get to the point where I am consistently in the sub 11 range.

I know guys who tough it out in cold winters, work full time jobs and go well under 9 hours. They truly know how to HTFU.

Hey, he wanted to know how to do it and that's one way. Agreed, not plausible for many or perhaps anybody.

I know of what you speak. I came close to breaking nine a couple of times myself many years ago. I worked full time and trained in Canada, through the winters always. I have no regrets, but I think that I did reach some form of limit to what I was able to do with what I had available. In other words, If I was able to train more, work less, I may have been able to break through to the next level . . . or I would have burned out. Who knows :)

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Steve Fleck @stevefleck | Blog

believing................




and as we can see in this thread 99% of the people that answer took themself out of the equation by lacking of this.....

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Jonathan Caron / Professional Coach / ironman champions / age group world champions
Jonnyo Coaching
Instargram

I hear that BALCO makes a cream that seemed to work for a lot of athletes...

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"There is no charge for awesomeness or attractiveness." Po "The Dragon Warrior", Kung-Fu Panda

I agree, dreams are great, but since 99% of the pros cannot do 8:30, just seemed, to me, to be honest and maybe have
him consider a more resonable goal, and then exceed it. Being on pace, is quite different that crossing the finish line.
Maybe just too honest but I hate to see folks set goals that are basically impossible, and then when they do what is amazing,
they get down on themselves, rather than be excited for what they have achieved.

(Now, seeing a person reach their potential by hard work, whether the time is 8:30 or 17:00 is what impresses me in
ones character)

Dave

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Dave Campbell | Facebook | @DaveECampbell | h2ofun@h2ofun.net

Boom Nutrition code 19F4Y3 $5 off 24 pack box | Bionic Runner | PowerCranks | Velotron | Spruzzamist

Lions don't lose sleep worrying about the sheep

No way ...

I hope you have found that aspect in your life where you are excellent, cause peoples limitations come from your kind of trained thought.

I'll go with Johnnyo anyday....
Believing ,hard work,perserverence,and believing can make an 8:30 very possible from a 10:30 in my humble opinion.

Maybe that's why Johnnyo has done it and you have not?

I agree with Jonnyo, if you don't believe in yourself then no matter what the goal is then it is impossible. I got ripped on a few times this past week because of the goals posted on my signature line. But those are my goals and I believe they are reachable. I know I am capable of it, if it dosen't happen at one race it will happen the next. Like I said, I have had some "slower" IM finishes, but so has Jonnyo, I bet DEV has one or two, it happens, but you can't improve if you dwell on past results, an athlete is NOT his or her last race.

But I also agree with H2o at least for myself. I was thinking the other night about what would be the ultimate triathlon accomplishment for ME (not anybody else) and I decided that for ME, qualifiying for kona (no rolldown, no lottery) and then going sub 10 at Kona would be the ultimate. That is my goal but it is a long term goal, if I set out to do it this year, I may be disapointed. However if I look to make improvements I.E. sub 11, sub 10, Dev like consistency across the board then I don't feel that my long term would be too far off.

If 8:30 is your goal and you believe then put it in motion.

Utter nonsense. I suppose 99% of the population could also run a 10.1 100m, a 2:10 marathon, throw a baseball 95mph, etc...certainly absolute 100% dedication can overcome genetics to an extent, but there are definite limits for everyone. We're not talking about the mind here, we're talking about the human body. Of course, w/o that 100% dedication you'll never truly know if you've got the genes to be in that top, top percentage.

Okay, when you go to Kona, to run your sub 10, I want you wearing a MyAthlete GPS unit so I can watch you go kick
butt in real time!!

My only goal at my age is to stay healthy and try to get to the starting line of the next race. Anything after
that is icing on the cake.

Dave

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Dave Campbell | Facebook | @DaveECampbell | h2ofun@h2ofun.net

Boom Nutrition code 19F4Y3 $5 off 24 pack box | Bionic Runner | PowerCranks | Velotron | Spruzzamist

Lions don't lose sleep worrying about the sheep