Lets get an update...

Norleans happens to be BELOW sea level. That is a huge diff. from 50 ft above sea level!

If I may interject my opinion, JamesHinton is somewhat correct in feeling this way. The emergency services, mayor, county judges, etc. did not call for an evacuation of all of Houston, Harris county, or the surrounding areas. The evacuation was called for Galveston and all areas in the 100 year flood plain. The fact that 2.5 million people hit the road is simply amazing and more than the infrastructure could handle. The people in Galveston and the low lying areas needed to evacuate starting Tuesday night and did. Everyone else evacuating, which is well within their right, created issues as the storm track moved and more areas needed to be added to the mandatory evacuation lists. The fact that the storm was going to weaken was not speculation, it was forecast two days in advance of landfall. The storm had no choice but to pull dry air from the mainland which was going to weaken it. The only thing not known is exactly where the storm would make landfall. Houston and the surrounding areas is a completely different story than New Orleans and Katrina. The majority of Houston and the area are not below sea level, the densest population is 20 miles inland and there is no Lake Pontchartrain with weak levees sitting above the city ready to dump its contents on the city. New Orleans survived Katrina, it did not survive levees giving way and a lake looking for a new low point to exist in. Houston also doesn't suffer from the abject poverty that surrounds New Orleans, there are areas that need our help, but we dont have parishes that are nothing more than shanty towns. More people than needed to have evacuated, that is a fact and it has been a learning experience for the local government. Issues arose, issues were dealt with, and hopefully everyone that needed/wanted to get out were able to do so.

I'll be in my house, my horses have been evacuated and my house has been secured as much as can be. I'm 80 miles inland, northwest of Houston and quite happy that the storm continued to move East. We were prepped and ready to move if it looked like we needed to yesterday, but the information that was available as early as yesterday morning was enough that folks on the west side of Houston could breathe a little easier.

Mark

Not really...only 75 feet or so.

Point is a hurricane is freakin' dangerous and unless the weather channel purposely screws everything up, pretty unpredicatable. Had the damn thing stayed a CAT4-5 and not veered the OP would not be in such good shape right now.

~Matt

You're assuming that wind velocity drops at a constant rate once a storm makes landfall. It doesn't. Instead you normally get one pretty big drop when the storm makes landfall, and then a period of gradual weakening.

I'm surprised at how many people 40+ miles from the coast in high elevation, built to code homes are evacuating. In these parts, 30 miles inland and at high elevation is the place you evacuate to, not the place you leave from.

And as long as you've practiced good tree maitenance, 80 mph winds for 4-8 hours sounds pretty scary, but really isn't that big of a deal for a built to code home. We got that for Ivan, and the homes came through okay unless they'd been hit by one of the fucking non-native shortleaf pines that went down.

Wow this is an interesting thread filled with paranoid media comments.

1) NO was not nearly the worst damaged from Katrina. Check out Miss. Beloxi is GONE.

2) NO was flooded out not because the concrete levys broke. The dirt and sand underneath them got washed out and the concrete simply had nothing supporting in, then the city was flooded. NOTICE THOSE BUILDINGS ARE STILL THERE JUST FLOODED. The winds of a CAT 5 did not destroy the city it got flooded. Its hard to flood a city thats 50 ft above the water levels in the areas.

3) Houston was not under an evacuation NO was.

Huh?

This is correct. Only Galveston, Galveston county, and those areas of Houston/Harris County in the 100 year flood plain were part of the original call for evacuation, this is essentially southeast Houston and those areas near the ship channel. That was modified to include areas further east of Houston as landfall predictions were modified.

That's almost all of Houston proper...

Not really, it's actually probably less than 25% of Houston proper. Here's the original evacuation map: http://www.khou.com/...vacuationMap2005.pdf

While that is the evacuation map, it does not represent the 100 year flood plain according to a distant cousin who is an engineer in Houston.

As a matter of fact, to point out how inaccurate your information is, each of Houston's many bayous are in the 100-year flood plain and that is not reflected by your map.

Looks like more than 50%: http://www.westurealestate.com/floodplain.htm check the FEMA links and look at the different parts of town. Regardless, most of Houston floods when it rains...

James,

Let me guess, you are white. If minorities run around picking up their neighbor's stuff and putting it in their own garage they call it looting. All the people in New Orleans were just trying to make sure all the stuff didn't float away from the stores.

I wouldn't have left either, in your situation.

A hurricane, even a cat 5, becomes a tropical storm very quickly after moving over land. The problem with New Orleans was the below sea level deal, not the wind.

Katrina, when it hit NO, was a cat 3. Here is the saffir-simpson description for cat 3 (just moving across the Mississippi delta dropped the wind from 150 to 125 mph):

Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal. Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required.

If I'm 15 miles inland or more (like Houston, for example) I'm staying put.

Correct, this is the evacuation map, not the 100 year flood plain, that would include the bayous that run through the city and would include areas of downtown, Bellaire, bear creek, astrodome complex, etc. While I don't have a distant cousin that is an engineer, I have lived here all my life and have been here for all the major storms since the early 70's. Nothing flooded the city like Allison. A stalling of the storm could cause flooding of the same magnitude, but the weather forecast is for the storm to continue on its track into northeast Texas. They've also piled $600 million into the system to help alleviate the flooding issues that Allison showed us.

But as my cousin said "no matter what you do to try to aleviate flooding in Houston it's hard to get around all the concrete and clay soil..."

For you guys I hope the model that has it parked over Harris County after landfal is incorrect.

Houston is an impossible city to drain. The concrete, the redirection of the bayous, and the soil base make drainage a problem throughout the area. If the storm parks over the county or just north of the county, it will flood again, no question. My decision to stay, and James' is based on the fact that we live well outside of the city proper. Myself, I'm 80 miles inland, 45 miles northwest of the city. Allison flooded my pasture, but it was dry within 3 days.

The point earlier was just that there wasn't a NEED for everyone that did evacuate to evacuate. It led to problems for the people that NEEDED to evacuate to be able to do so. That and the fact that the evacuation routes were not supplied with extra gasoline.

 
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"Sometimes you need to think INSIDE the box!" -- ME
"Why squirrel hate me?"

The majority of the city of Houston's population lies north, west, and southwest of downtown. From downtown to Kingwood, downtown to Woodlands, downtown to Champions, downtown to Katy, downtown to Sugar Land.

None of these people are within the 100 year flood plain. None of the people were under voluntary evac. It is not the same as NO. We knew Thursday that the storm would be downgraded. The experts knew it so we knew it. We knew Friday morning, more than 12 hours before landfall, that the storm had a 95% chance of landing more than 100 miles east of Galveston.

The fool confuses luck with wisdom.

The fool damns the media and government if they do and damns the media and government if they don't.

There sure are plenty of fools around.

Bob C.

Good idea. You should check all of your neighors homes to make sure they are secure, and that their valuables are still safe. Plasma TV, jewelry. In fact, maybe you should take them back to your house where you can look after them.

lol 50 mile an hour baby jogger. That's one happy kid i'll say :D

Sorry didn't mean to poke a joke at such a serious manner.

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"The aspect of sport that you learn is that you have your good times and your bad times, but you share it with great people." - George Gregan

I have evacuated 3 times this year so far. It was a good move in every case even though we did not get a direct hit as the power was out for several days. Being without power when it is 95 degrees with 90% humidity is not fun and I have no desire to experience that. However, I got out early and did not have to fight any traffic. The key is to make a move early. 1 day before the storm is not a good time to hit the road. I still think that evacuation is a good idea. You never know if a tree is going to fall on your house and kill everybody inside.

Mike

I think I'll stick to Tri-DRS.

The storm is passed us, although it is still a little windy at times. We didn't lose power, we got less than .25" of rain, and I just had a nice waffle for breakfast. Wisdom, luck, foolishness, whatever, we're safe and I'm thankful for that.

Mark in Houston

I live in St Augustine, FL. My home was built in 1918. The walls are 2 full sets of brick and 15" inch!! I couldn't even hear 80mph winds last year standing in my parlor!!

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Paul