sch340 wrote:
Is running the first few miles too fast the biggest factor in blowing up? Or is it overbiking? And how do you tell the difference in order to diagnose the problem when it happens?Probably both (equally). The only way to tell the difference is in post-hoc analysis. But it's your first IM and there are other (mental) factors to consider here. Nutrition will obviously be a factor too unless you have a well-developed iron stomach. Usually that takes time to develop.
sch340 wrote:
I get what you are trying to say, and I'll also add that there is a layer of strategy to it. In a very theoretical scenario where my coach yells at me in T2, telling me I have to run a 3:30 to KQ (and my VDOT is 57), then I might have to take a calculated risk and start out in the low 8 minute range. Otherwise, it might be more prudent to start out a little slower to have a higher probability of going under 3:40. In other words, I take a (almost) guaranteed 3:40 or have a 50/50 shot of going 3:30 or 3:50.
To be frank (and overly redundant), the whole idea of worrying about running too slow in those early miles where it truly impacts your overall run time is just beyond ridiculous in my 15 years of doing/coaching/watching this sport. It just doesn't happen.
Personally, mental preparation is really important, imo. I would avoid the use of words like "guaranteed" and establish goals like, "Don't run the first 3 miles faster than 8:15." Focus on everything you can control and ignore everything you cannot control. You have no idea whether a 3:30 run is going to be required to KQ or not. One example: I ran 3:23 (9:41 OA) at IMAZ '09 and was 16th in my AG but ran a 3:39 (10:11 OA) at IMC '11 and was 2nd in my AG. Who knows who's going to show up and what the conditions might be...