Might as well throw Paula Findley in there too.

Correct. The only chance either of them have of winning is if there a number of injuries/retirements to others and there is no-one that is strong across all 3 disciplines. The game has changed, you can't give up 5, 6 minutes on the swim.

At 5 to 6 minutes down, your day is pretty much over, ride your bike to the Kona Brewing company and I’ll buy you a beer. https://swimswam.com/...st-of-the-kona-swim/[/url]

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For ANY athletes what others do is not a strategy so I definitely agree with you.

Lionel and Sam can only control their own race. Lionel's PB in Kona wins the race in all but four years all time so he just needs to execute his best race and let the cards fall where they fall. His swim is not actually his limiter in Kona. His limiter in Kona has been non execution on the bike. He may have his regular swim, and a good bike 4:1x bike and 2:50 run and this is enough to win in all but four years all time. Frodo has beaten Lionel's PB once and Lange has beaten it twice and Crowie once while winning. But they have also gone slower than Lionel's best time (including Lionel beating Jan), so you never know.

For sure Lionel's swim gap hurts, but he can still win in spite of his swim gap.

Lionel isn’t American. So that would be a no.

Yeah gtfoh. Lionel is Canadian.

I agree with their current swims and the fields today, it would be a total long shot for either to win. There are many more favorites coming in soon too that are going to spoil any party they might think they have. That whole crop of Norwegians are gonna dominate the top 10 once this olympic cycle is over, so some new really fast blood is knocking on the door, as well as some other 70.3 specialists. And I still think Javier is not done with Ironman either, and probably Allistar will have a couple more cracks at it.

Their one and best hope is to get into the 50 flat swim group however they can, thus only being down 2 minutes+ from the leaders. And those leaders are the ones winning the race most years, so that has to be the strategy, not hoping for others failures. And I dont believe either of those guys do that(too classy and honest), just some of their fans... (-;

Tim, Sam is still pretty young. Do you think it’s unrealistic he’ll ever improve enough to swim main pack?

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Let food be thy medicine...

You never know. Judging by the way he trains the bike and run on a regular basis (he does too much) and how many races he does in a season (too many), there isn’t much room to make improvements in the swim.

But from experience, he’s at least 4 years to never away from making half the improvement he needs in the swim and probably 7 years away from getting 2/3 of the way there.

I tell the pros I work with when we start that you need to train where you think the competition will be in 5 years and not where it is now. And for the swim, it’s the leg with the most amount of room for improvement.

Hope this helps,

Tim

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Lionel getting two reasonably good non wetsuit swims in (90s to Kanute in rough waters in Galveston) is a pretty good indication he's heading in the right direction, isn't it? I mean, if he can keep the small improvements and is within 3 minutes in Kona - there's usually a lot of firepower there.

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DFRU - Detta Family Racing Unit...the kids like it and we all get out and after it...gotta keep the fam involved!

Yeah, I’d say he’s getting closer. As to if it can be done, basically Peter Reid improves his swim by 2 minutes-in 2003 to win. And of course the race can still be won on the bike, that’s what Frodeno did in 2019.

Maurice

Lionel seems to be swimming faster AND being more in control - both great things for Kona. I know Tim knows his stuff...but LS is learning to swim effectively.

In his videos - I actually think that the next thing he needs is open water training - learning to draft better - swim around others - tactical open water stuff, and he will get himself in the second pack. Then....who knows!

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DFRU - Detta Family Racing Unit...the kids like it and we all get out and after it...gotta keep the fam involved!

 
At the risk of summoning Harvard, Norse God of Norwegian Triathlon Fanboys, there will be a few Norwegians on the top step before anyone else hits it.

But my vote for next North American would go to Cody Beals ahead of LS (who might win if the stars align) or SL (who won't).

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Its all conjecture really. But yes of course either Sam or Lionel could win Kona. Sam is still on the way up, Lionel has reached his plateau i feel. Lionel has never really biked to his max in Kona. Thats a tricky one to get right when so much can go wrong on the run if you over do it. but that is Lionels missing link. So he'll have to take a good calculated risk on the bike and still be able to run 2:45. not impossible.
Personally i feel the next American to win Kona will be Rudy. He's right where he needs to be and is very aware of what he needs to work on, namely holding his running technique in the later stages of the run.

Right over your head

Maybe they will finally change the rules and implement a 20m draft rule. That would change the game completely in favour of the strong bikers.

I don't know why everyone is saying the short course guys will dominate the long distance even if the haven't done anything longer than a 70.3. It is possible for sure but who says that everyone who is fast over the short distance is also efficient over the long distance?

At least try to spell my name correctly if you are going to have fun on my behalf :-)

And yes. Gustav Iden will win Kona on his first try.
(like I predicted for 70,3 Nice and PTO)

There have been many, many experiences of the same phenomenon with Irish athletes suddenly being reported as though they're British in UK media. Most recently Bradley Wiggins claimed Sam Bennett was basically British while sitting on the pundits couch beside Sean Kelly on Eurosport. Sean quite rightly, and unsuprisingly, took exception to that only to be insulted by Wiggins.
Sam actually grew up in the same town Sean Kelly is from, Carrick-on-Suir in Tipperary.

https://www.the42.ie/bradley-wiggins-sam-bennett-british-claim-5199964-Sep2020/


I think it's somewhat forgivable when the UK lay claim to Northern Irish sports people like Rory McIlroy or Eddie Irvine who carry British passports but identify as competing as Irish athletes. There is an ambiguity there.
However, there have been a number of athletes where there was no such ambiguity, and yet this nonsense goes on; Sam Bennett being one of those.


I don't really understand the psychology of it. It would make a bit more sense if a smaller, less successful country was claiming some association with an athlete from a larger or more successful country like the UK or USA, but when the nation already has plenty successful athletes legitimately of that nationality, I don't understand this need to try and claim more? Kinda pathetic.

Gustav is more than likely the next big thing at the 140.6 distance. Definitely has the talent

Frodeno will be 40 this year. Lange's best years (and best weather for legal drafting) are behind him. Someone mentioned TO. I will miss his little head movement on the run, he's spectacular, and 41 this year.

In my mind, Long has a shot at winning in a couple of years, and Rudy von Berg will be his biggest American rival. Doesn't take Einstein to figure it out. They say Kona is a peculiar place, the crosswinds negate much of the drafting benefit on the bike, and running is pure hell. Big guys like Long may not have it easy in the heat, but then again look at the 6'5" freak that Frodeno is.

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

American from North America I assume, correct?

lionel will never even get close to the podium again. his fluke 2nd place there will remain his best kona result. he doesn't have the brains to prepare for and race to win kona (and his 'coach' is seemingly letting him do whatever now) and he is not physically suited to the conditions. rvb probably the most likely n. american to win it next, but that still wouldn't be for a few years. hoffman and o'donnell have had their day now as well. european field is just too strong now.

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Feel the Speed

Clearly, when North Americans hear "American" they think the USA. And yes, you're going to rile up Canadians calling one of us "American". But in my experience, for the rest of the Americas (central and south) if you're from the Americas you're American. I have friends from Guatemala and Brazil who self-identify as American. I've heard people from Europe refer to South Americans as Americans. So in that sense Lionel is American and plenty of people will think of him that way.

Win