With current numbers on the hospital system, I'm not sure a route change out of Harris County would be enough at this point.

(entirely speculation)

Waco City held a press conference yesterday, and it is terrible there as well. :(

No ... but ... at this point that's not the main issue. It's no longer a Harris County not willing to grant the bike course permit issue. The Montgomery County hospital system is overwhelmed with COVID cases at the moment and the effects of "back to school" haven't even hit yet.

Nope. bike course is still the only question mark.

Good news on the covid front is that hospitalizations went down from 409 on 8/23 to 395 today. Hopefully a trend and not a blip.

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Badig| Strava

Here are the numbers from Montgomery County for anyone wanting track.
https://mcphd-tx.org/...-19/confirmed-cases/


Looks like this one shows both Harris and Montgomery.
https://app.powerbi.com/...YmUxMGUwOCIsImMiOjN9

Am I right that, assuming the upcoming October race is cancelled, IMTX will have been postponed/ cancelled four times? It happened in April and October 2020, again in April 2021, and presumably will get axed again in October 2021. Has any other IM had this happen four times?

Kona, if Feb 2022 gets cancelled.

ABSOLUTELY DISAGREE, MEDICAL RESOURCE IS A HUGE OBSTACLE. MAYBE NOT SPOKEN AT THE MOMENT BUT A CLEAR IMPEDIMENT TO RACE EXECUTION. HISTORICALLY NUMEROUS PEOPLE ARE ADMITTED TO ICU AND HOSPITAL FOR CARE AND SEVERAL TRAUMATIC ORTHOPEDIC INJURIES REQUIRING SURGERY FROM RACE. HOSPITAL IS IN NOT CAPACITY TO ABSORB THAT AND TREND IS FAR FROM CHANGING FOR THE BETTER. DAILY NUMBERS PUT US AT A STEADY STATE CURRENTLY WITH AN UPTREND EXPECTED FROM SCHOOL REOPENING WITH ASTRONIMICAL POSITIVE TESTING FROM CHILDHOOD POPULATION IN CONROE ISD.

Yeah, the overall trends seem to indicate that as a whole the greater Houston area may be peaking. TMC is showing their positivity rates and hospitalizations as possibly cresting the peak as well. This is anecdotal, but our trends also seem to align with what happened in the UK. Still, I doubt IM TX goes off. Heck, I'm signed up for the Waco 70.3 and I'm preparing for that to be cancelled.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/covid-19-testing-metrics-for-tmc-hospital-systems/

We are down again today to 372 (Montgomery County). Fingers crossed it continues.

And to the screamer up there, most races aren't sponsored by a hospital system and therefore hire the med crew for the race. Few if any athletes make it to a hospital on race day, so it's not a tax on the hospitals. Obviously if COVID is still blowing and going the race will get canceled, but if there's capacity, then the catch is still the bike permit.

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Badig| Strava

It only takes a few preventable tragedies to change everything. We have over 120 covid in the the hospital and about 1100 in the system. Local ERs are all closing because staff needs to be diverted to the hospitals. Its good to remain optimistic and positive, but to understand what is going on, you need to go visit the hospital or as one of your friends who works there.

We are five weeks out. There are no answers here that are absolutely correct. Whatever decision is made is understood. But scheduling issues, travel plans, etc., really mean a go/no go decision be made soon. Any word/thought on how IM and the local jurisdictions might be leaning?

Not much in the hospitalization numbers to make one feel optimistic. Montgomery County looks a bit better, but Harris County isn't seeing the same. Really frustrating how bad the communication is on the go/no go decision.

I had been planning to do the Blackland Triathlon this weekend with my brother (a doc). Because of the local case count, he isn't expecting he can make it out of town that long.

Really would like to know if I need to get a new trisuit ordered. Since it was the run that caused the trouble last time, maybe I should just plan to change clothes for the run.

His all caps ASIDE, I think the crux of the issue is the hospital situation. Are local hospital systems bursting right now. Yes. Does an IM race typically result in additional ICU care for a handful of participants? I don't know. I hope we all agree that if the hospital situation doesn't improve we should all do our part not to contribute to the problem.

So honest question: how many people end up in the hospital after your typical (2000 person) IM event. For me personally, 1 is NOT too many but a handful is. So if it is reasonable to presume a handful of people end up in the hospital after an IM I think the race should be canceled (pending the status of the local hospitals in 5 weeks. Hopefully that improves and this is all moot).

I think the race is slightly less than 50/50 to take place. But who knows....

I agree, we need a go/no go decision very soon.

It's interesting that in just the last two days the IMTX Facebook account has put out short video clips of the course to get people excited, including one of the Hardy Toll Road.

We all understand there is a very real concern around hospital capacity. I spent several days at Memorial Hermann after a nasty bike crash during the 2018 IMTX bike leg, so it does happen. There were at least 2 others I'm aware of on that day.

I think we just need some communication soon, so we can all make plans accordingly. Stay safe, and hopefully the hospitals get some reprieve soon.

Last year IMAZ canceled the Thursday ~10d prior to the event date. Unless they've changed their policy, Ironman carries on as if an event is going to happen until it's 100% definitely not happening.

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Dimond Bikes Superfan

I can do you one better. 2019 Ironman 70.3 Lubbock cancelled 3 days out form the race. People and bikes were already en route and not all hotels offered money back.

My take is that officials assume can’t assume an average number of hospitalizations when making this kind of decision. The number of hospitalizations could vary wildly from hundreds of people being hit by a single car to just a few people that fell off bikes.

My point is I doubt there’s a set number they say is the breaking point. My understanding is they are already at it without the race.

honestly what are they to do? They want to hold the race. But the only decision that they can definitively make now is cancellation. Are you saying you want them to throw in the towel on the race now? If that is your perspective, I get it, so no judgement on my part.

That's a good point. They do have to keep the race going forward until the local government tells them no. They can't unilaterally cancel the race. And I don't want them to throw in the towel.

I guess I'm asking for inside information, which is a bit selfish on my part. I'd truly like to know (i) the status of the Harris County permit for the Hardy Toll Road (i.e., has Harris County said they are in jeopardy); and (ii) if the local government has given any indication that the race is in jeopardy due to local hospital capacity. It would be nice to know if neither of those have happened and we are full steam ahead.

I know they can't give that information out. I understand.

You are correct that we will just have to wait and see.

Nice new culpa! I think we all feel the same way. So for what it is worth, I just filed a FOIR with Harris county. I’ll let you know what I find oit

Fixed it.

For what it is worth, i didnt realize i was using all caps and that all caps had any meaning aside from all caps. Lol
Last October, things were clearing up and we should have had race then, and we didnt.
Numbers in hospital are not clearing up definitiviely, today they started to spike again. We may in the next week or two be seeing the back to school spike. Hospital is functioning better because of additional nursing staff brought on to manage the crisis.
The hardy tends to create more bike casualties, and the heat creates more dehydration, hyponatremia problems for athletes. Right now we have oxygen supply issues secondary to a national shortage and local shortages created by Ida. One thing after another.

What I don't quite understand is the timing of the permit from Harris County. How does that process typically play out? My assumption is that in any normal year IM has its permits many weeks if not months in advance of the race. If that is the case, IM currently has all the permits it needs and the risk is that Harris County may revoke it. Or is it the case that IM does not yet have permits and is waiting on Harris County to grant one?

Back in March when the April (2021) race was cancelled, it had been clear for months that Harris County was NOT going to allow any large events. Right up until the race was cancelled IM was still saying "the race will go on" even though I'm pretty confident it knew that it did not have a permit and was unlikely to get one. That's what I found frustrating. IM was projecting more confidence than I'm guessing it really had. So I wonder what the situation is now? Does IM have its permits and is crossing its fingers hoping Harris County won't step in? Or, does it not yet have approval and it's crossing its fingers hoping cases will decline enough for Harris to grant approval?

Why does the toll road create more bike casualties?