In Reply To:
I would wonder a couple of things.
1. Is there any scientific study that would show that adding 10 miles to your long/hard ride once a week would affect this curve in this way in a rider like you? Having a higher ability at two or three hours than before would be interpreted by most as your having a higher FTP, yet you haven't seen that in your 1 hour or shorter efforts, at least yet. Or, conversely, if you have not improved your FTP most people would not expect you to be able to significantly improve your 2 or 3 hour efforts. So, what is really going on here? I don't think it is quite so clear cut as you think it is.
2. Have any of the other riders in your group have similar data to see how their curves have changed with this ride?
3. And, the data is the data. What is subject to discussion is how should it be interpreted?
Frank, I suggest you brush up on Monod critical power models. You'll find that power does decrease much beyond an hour from that model. Due to my high aerobic power relative to my anaerobic work capacity, my power for durations longer than 1 hour is not expected to drop much. Indeed, here are my expected critical powers for 60, 120, and 180 minutes for the last 7 years if I use the average of my top 10 performances at durations of 3, 5, 8, 10, and 15 minutes (again, I am using an average of top values rather than cherry picking):
Year, CP60, CP120, CP180
2003, 262, 260, 260
2004, 260, 258, 257
2005, 271, 269, 268
2006, 271, 270, 269
2007, 274, 272, 271
2008, 272, 270, 270
2009, 273, 272, 271
Granted Monod does breakdown for longer times, it nonetheless demonstrates my aerobic power is my strength. If I had much better AWC, there would be a bigger difference between the critical powers.
Additionally, looking back at the data from the start of PC use, here are the peak 120, 150, and 180 minute normalized powers since that time along with my all-time best prior to PC use:
Month, NP120, NP150, NP180, Comments
All-time, 265, 256, 249
August, 230, 223, 198, Started to use PC and rode mostly L2 for the month
September, 242, 240, 234, Longer "hammerfest" group ride, more L3 work during the week with PCs
October, 258, 256, 247, L3/L4 work with PCs
November, 260, 256, 249, L4 work with PCs
December, 256, 252, 245, doing some L5 work
January, 264, 256, 244
February, 257, 255, 249
March, 252, 248, 242
rest of the time - just haven't done that crunching yet, but they are enveloped by the above
As you can see, the powers during that time are enveloped by my previous bests for those durations. Given that August was essentially a month of "junk" miles (L2 stuff) and by September I was seriously starting my training year again, it's not a surprise to see an increase from August --> Sept --> Oct due to increased tempo and threshold volume. A detraining effect in August followed by rebuilding the engine. Are you surprised by that?
So what is going on here? I'm an aerobic engine by nature. Those NP120 numbers are close to what I can do for average power if rested for a few days and my fuel stores are up. Those numbers don't surprise me one bit. I honestly expect to be in that range.
The answer to #2 was in one of my posts. Yes, my teammates are seeing similar "gains" compared to last year. Just the increase in ride length accounts for higher 2-3 hour power values. Considering most of my teammates are likely aerobic engines, this is not surprising.
Now you say
Quote:
Having a higher ability at two or three hours than before would be interpreted by most as your having a higher FTP, yet you haven't seen that in your 1 hour or shorter efforts, at least yet. Or, conversely, if you have not improved your FTP most people would not expect you to be able to significantly improve your 2 or 3 hour efforts. So, what is really going on here? I don't think it is quite so clear cut as you think it is.
Spun another way, having a higher ability at two or three hours than before would be interpreted by most as having longer, more intense, rides than previously, regardless of FTP. You can certainly increase your 2 or 3 hour power
WITHOUT increasing FTP. One of those power axioms is FTP is a measure of how hard you can ride, your CTL (chronic training load) is a measure of how long you can ride hard. I'm a mileage junkie; I like to have a higher CTL. It's very old school - want to go harder longer? Ride lots...
And don't worry Frank. I won't be attributing any gains in FTP to my Saturday rides. Why? Because based on the historical data and based on mixing up my training with PCs, my FTP hasn't budged. If anything, what this year has taught me is that I should make better use of my time - train less but harder. I'll have the same fitness but have more hours in the week for stuff off the bike. Likewise, I won't blame PCs for not increasing my FTP. I'll blame that instead on genetics.