No, but go for it anyways. At the amateur level you'll get just as much enjoyment out of pushing your limits as you will hitting arbitrary times.

Interesting thread that I will follow and I wish you all the best. I need to go make some popcorn now.

I accept the challenge! Can you give me a ballpark range of what times I should be able to put up at the April sprint? I would have four more months from that point to Age Group Nationals.

That's a very aggressive goal for your current fitness/training to make....But if it gets you motivated and the summer to put all in...then do it.


Based on where you currently are, you need to just get base fitness. 6 hours a week isn't really a ton for that type of race goal so the mid April race you'd need to establish that as your "base" and then build from there.


Of course you are realizing what the demands of competition are, which is a good thing. I just think a more realistic goal for you would be what is the 25th-40th placed guys doing.


You need to solve the whole inconsistency problem with training as well, and maybe this stretch goal will be the catalyst to get you training consistently. So train up for the mid April race and then evaluate from there. Don't go into that race with much expectations considering your only doing 6 hour training weeks.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Your looking at the April race wrong.

You don't need to go in with any expectations for that race. You simply need to race and establish a baseline to then determine course of action for Nats in August.

Because what you can *only* do in 1 month time frame based on adding more fitness on top of low fitness (inconsistent training, only 6 hours a week currently) currently isn't really a good gauge to know if your on track for August race. It'll only be disappointing to look at with that that prospective.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

It's pretty difficult to predict how fast someone will improve, but dropping 34 minutes off an Olympic time in 5 months is super-aggressive for anyone. Some people might say impossible but I won't say that.

Setting goals is motivating though, and based on that swim, there is some endurance/aerobic talent in you. You just need to train your body to demonstrate it in biking and running. But make no mistake.... There is a massive difference between where you are and where you want to be.

6 hours/week is not enough. And the training needs to be really smart, not just banging out the miles mindlessly. You need a really good coach.

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Ed O'Malley
www.VeloVetta.com
Founder of VeloVetta Cycling Shoes
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It's tough to walk into triathlon for one season and hit a home run like that. I fall into a trap every year where I think the big race I signed up for is the last one I'll do and it puts a ton of pressure on me. I injure myself trying to hit every workout when I'm tired, etc. It's best to have a long haul mentality. I've been in the game for 6 years and learn new stuff every year. But if you're only in for one year, welcome to the party and good luck!

I'm an above average swimmer, average cyclist, and average runner. My best Olympic is a 2:30. I think if you go sub 2:30, you're doing well.

However, maybe you're truly gifted and your goals are achievable. It seems like every pro story starts with I signed up for my first tri and won it. I will say 6 hours of training isn't a lot. If you can hit 2:11 on 6 hours/week, I want your parents.

In terms of sprint times, I think you need to be sub 20 minutes on the 5k. Seems like you'll kick the swims ass. Biking is course specific. I will say it's hard to ride 25 MPH. I can't ride that fast.

I would hope to be able to qualify to speak to this as:

1) Someone who has watched/trained with a lot of people who grew up in sport quickly and were spit out
2) Someone who rose not knowing anything about triathlon and not being able to swim to reaching the start line of Kona as amateur, and then a professional.

With that being said, your swim background will be your saving grace. We don't really know what your potential engine size is. Training the house down will result in getting injuryed/sick/burnt out when you are not ready for it. The great lesson of triathlon is to be consistent and you just highlighted a fatal fall... training inconsistently. My advice would be to enjoy the process and see where it takes you + what good does qualifying for Worlds do when you have already implied that once school starts you are literally and figuratively, all business.

To give you some comparison of my own engine. I got a bike in April of 2006. I did a 70.3 in July as my first triathlon and then in my first Ironman in September at Ironman Wisconsin, on a cold and drenching day. On that day I swam 1:12, biked about 20mph in 5:44, back then with bike technology something like less than 50 people biked over 20mph, and then ran a 3:41. It took me until 2009 to qualify for Duathlon Worlds as an amatuer on a slow and steady trajectory working full-time as 24-7 on call medical device sales rep.

Here is a succinct listing of all my races and my progress over the years with a break down of my USAT rankings as well. My job and responsibility for someone my age was off the charts, especially when I look back at it. How much faster could I have progressed with a summer off. No clue, but I have seen countless number of elite age-group athletes turn pro and they destroyed either their mind or body within a year. Have goals and objectives but don't forget to enjoy the process and let the chips fall where they may.

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My guess is with your mentality, you’ll get injured. Been there, done that.

It just doesn’t sound like you have the base foundation to put down the suffice t levels of training, unless you’re a truly gifted athlete (Top D1 Swimmer/Runner, Cat 1 roadie, etc) which I doubt or your first race would likely have been signifany faster.

Take your time. Listen to your body. Do the best you can. Enjoy the journey. See where you end up. My gues is around 2:25-2:30 if you don’t burn yourself out overtraining.

But good luck! And if I’m wrong, write a book about what you did! I’ll buy it.

Really appreciate all of the responses! Sounds like it might be out of reach but should be fun to try and crazier things have happened before.

One thing to clarify is that I know 6 hours per week isn’t enough - I’m planning on ramping it up now but yeah agree that I don’t really have a base level of fitness built up at this point.

I’ll report back in mid April.

I made some decent gains from my 1st tri season to my 2nd, being able to go at the same speeds from a sprint in year one to a half in year 2. I had no swim background, but seem to have good genes for biking. I went from a 2:19 Olympic at the end of my 1st year to a PR of 2:02 a few years later.

The thing I’ve found out over the years (entering my 10th season of tris) is that consistency is king. Day in, day out training far out weighs big workouts. Over the last three years I’ve averaged 600-640 hours a year of tri training, and all of that mileage and muscle memory is what I feel really pays dividend on race day.

Can you make such a big jump? Maybe. There are often roll down spots, as some folks don’t want to travel to a big race. I’d say doing your best and hoping for a roll down spot to worlds could be your best option.

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You're looking for massive improvements in a relatively short space of time. The only way I can see that being possible is if you are currently way out of form but do actually have huge capacity if you train consistently and cleverly. However, I think it's a very long shot at best and think it's therefore an unwise target. There is no need or benefit to setting a specific placing or time target at this point. You don't know what you can do so that target is going to have no impact on how you go about things. It'll just serve as a disincentive if/when you realise it's unachieveable. Instead, try and get as good as you're capable of doing in the time available, and if you find yourself in with any shot at qualifying as the race approaches, then, and only then, set that as your target.

I would regularly go 2:10 to 2:18 in a flat Olympic distance race, my sprint times with a 800 meter swim were about 1:05-1:09

I'm in the same AG. Had the same goal last year and didn't come close. My last race of the season I finally broke 2:20. It was my second year seriously racing.

As others have said, it's a lofty goal, but not completely impossible. Here are some suggestions:

1. Get a coach, or even solid trainigng plans. I use Trainerroad and my first training block brought my FTP up ~40 watts. Same for running. I suggest Barry to really build your base.

2. I come from a swimming background too. You can't win a race on a swim, but you can definitely lose it. Learn to draft and pace.

3. Also race specific ro AG Nats, practice swimming in super choppy water. Last year we went off at one of the later time slots and it was extremely choppy. I typically go ~23 min in an Oly, but was over 30 at that race.

4. If you aren't already, get setup on a cheap tri bike and run some aero testing, via the Chung method. You're going to need ever advantage you can get given the timeframe.

5. Know your goal is lofty. Don't build up amd put pressure on yourself. It's just triathlon.

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Strava

I think you're underselling yourself... you should follow the 2hr Olympic plan instead of the 2:11 plan.... that way if things don't go perfectly you'll still have 2:11 to fall back on

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Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
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-Pitbull. Very wise man.

Regarding the OP.

In my experience and opinion, hell no. 4 months to take a 17.5 mph bike split to 25 mph? 55 min 10k to 40 min 10k? And one after another to boot?!

Anecdotally, both of those things took me over a year to do (,a couple of years with the cycling, and I was a cat 2 by that point) with single-dedication to each specific sport and a lot of very structured training time (with a coach in both sports). I'm not the most talented guy in the world, but I'm not bad either.

I do agree with the idea of shooting for ambitious goals. I just prefer longer (and more realistic) timelines.

I say go for it....carefully. As others have said, be careful with the ramp up and listen to your body. The one piece of advice I would say that I haven't seen in this thread yet, don't push too hard on the swim on race day. Use your swim background to help you come out in the front of the swim pack fresher than the field. Don't try and build a "large" lead on the swim by burning yourself out. The more energy you have after the swim will help you meet your bike an run goals.

I highly recommend TrainerRoad. It will build your FTP quickly without getting you injured. For me, TrainerRoad's plans are a perfect mix of interval work and base work.

Good luck and keep us posted on your progress!

Set yourself some intermediate stand alone goals first.
Eg. Sub 20 5K run.

I'll try to summarize what everyone else is telling you, because it's all great advice, and you should listen:

• Swim a few times a week (at least 10k yards/week) with a masters team if you can. Your background here helps and this is all you need.
• Get TrainerRoad and start on one of their Oly Plans based on the amount of time you have
• Run consistently 5-6 days/week using the BarryP plan (search here for the links)
• Race in April and then fit in 1 or 2 other sprints/Olys before August. Use these to benchmark where you're at and learn how to pace
• You didn't even mention what kind of bike you have or your fit. If you want to come anywhere close to your goal, you'll need a entry or mid level tri-bike and a good fitting session

There are a lot of other things to consider (gear, equipment, etc.) but if you do those 5 things you should get as close to maximizing your potential in 5 months that a person can.

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Strava

I’d truthfully say to scratch the goal but if it’s the goal that gets you out there to go for it...but.....I’ve seen enough in athletes to know that finding consistent “boring” training is going to be key. The type of training that you just show up and put in the fitness bank day in and day out. But that can be really hard for athletes who are inconsistent and need “big jumps” in improvement to stay motivated etc.

What I always tell athletes when they pick a goal- your training damn well better match the goal you want or your using a “Santa claus” prayer approach....Remember as a kid before a test “god help me pass this test even though I didn’t study for it”....

This scenario has quick injury type of ending if not careful and smart about it.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I agree with the folks above that are very concerned about injury risk. You're a literal setup for it for when you ramp up your run training to match your swim engine - things will go well for a short time, and then WHAM, you're out for 3+ months due to a tendon strain (or worse).

I have a significant running background and at the paces you mention, I have been injured from training at the pacs required to hit those speeds, so it's going to be even higher risk for you (manyfold) with little run miles.

Honestly, I'd focus a lot primarily training as hard/well as you can while NOT getting injured, and let the cards fall where they are. Swim & bike are forgiving with regards to overachieving, but in the run, more often than not you will just suffer a premature sideline from injury if your expectations are too high.

Just because I have the link handy...and its harder to find that you would think it should be:

https://forum.slowtwitch.com/forum/?post=1612485

Yeah, this. Your swim is fine but your bike isn't even close training it sufficiently would take most of your 6 hours (I realize you said you can add more...but you have to build your hours up, and you need to do that slowly). Your 5 month goal is a recipe to get hurt or hate triathlon. Make that 17 months and it's an awesome goal.

Maybe, but probably not. I'm just a guy on the internet, but I think you'll probably get hurt if you try to run and bike enough to improve that much. It's really hard to substantially improve multiple disciplines at once as it is. Your swim is there, and you know how much you have to swim to maintain it better than I do. I'd just really focus on the bike, get on trainerroad and run sweet spot base 1 and 2 and see how much your bike improves. Run slowly some, then see what happens.