I caught some flack from friends for that prediction, ha! I mean, 51 Speedshop sponsors Rudy and Sam, so my prediction was pretty biased. We were really happy to see Appo back from his bachelor party slip n slide knee injury and up at the front.

My prediction for the PTO races next year are that: Rudy can actually get in the water (covid was tough on swimming here in Boulder), Sam and Lionel are very focused on getting their swims together. For Sam, that means intense form work and then volume and swimming with fast folks. If you have Lionel and Sam coming out the water a couple of minutes further up, my picks above remain the same for next year.

---

wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

Lionel Sanders on the race - highly recommended, an eventful one it was:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jGt7EFFnyo

---

"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

I too thought that was good and recommend it to others, fans or not.
Some rambling/repetition but frank and interesting.
Bottom line: pissed off with swim, necessary 'catch-up' effort on bike affected run speed, but fastest bike/run (a minute better than Hanson, Goodwin and Iden)

Had to bash it on bike (with Long mostly). Really felt the power spikes/surges (30 seconds) needed for every one of his 30+ passes (including those lapped) (?420+w) which 'fried his legs' for his run.

So much action (eg avoiding drafting while passing) 'resulted in' neglecting nutrition - which he reckons, together with fried legs, main factors resulting in slow first half of run (eg Goodwin (11s behind entering T2) took 45 secs out of him).
Resolves to work as hard on swim in 2021 (with swim coach input) as he has on bike/run in 2020. "Yes, I'll be doing that too" says Iden!

This video showcases the typical LS analysis. He recognizes the big issue being the swim, then comes up with a brilliant plan to address it. Admits he never really tackled it before. It sounds exactly the same as all previous times he said that. And each time he was going to do something about it.

He has done lots of swim volume before, while also installing an endless pool system to keep at it. The only obvious thing missing then was being around a swim coach. It was easily solvable because he was kinda working with someone, just not on deck but remote. This while having the option to go train on whatever location.

I am a crap swimmer myself, so maybe I should relate to this, but I don't get the excuses being made. If I was being paid to perform as a pro, I'd be in a pool with a swim coach all winter. But this guy repeats the same plan after most races and after a certain amount of focus apparently always just forgets about it. Maybe that focus gets lost when someone wins a race in the bike or run and that area suddenly needs all attention.

It's a shame because there is obviously a lot of talent and he might be the one who is able to push the most when it comes down to it, but there is always something basic that gets forgotten.

I would be curious how many weak swimmers have been able to turn into "good" swimmers and race well at the pro level. And mind you I would consider a top 5 at this event one hell of a performance and pay day.

And no dont give me 1 off good swims etc like Sebi here this year, or Lange a few years ago in Kona when both DNF'd before the bike was over.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Sebi here this year wasn't good. The tracker put him minutes down, not the 1 minute that the commentators kept repeating.
Lange was with Frodeno out of the swim a few years ago in Frankfurt too, which was very good. Then they rode together and Jan ran away after the bike. Different timing vs Kona but an indicator that he can swim, but that probably it takes a bit out of him combined with the bike.

I think honestly LS might have hit his ceiling for swimming already, which is not something to be ashamed off when coming into the sport so late. He is only slow compared to other pros. What I think is ridiculous is that he keeps saying he never really addressed it completely yet after every major race it is by far the biggest thing he could improve. Which he also always says he will tackle.

It's 1 or the other. You can't keep saying you'll fix it and then after every race blame not winning on being behind in the swim.

It was an interesting statement he made that he swims in the pool with guys who beat him in by a min in the group he wants to swim in. Also interesting that a 5s gap can turn into 1 min 1 lap later. I would be curious how much open water swimming technique focus stuff he does (or OWS venues). Reminds me of Alan Webb who 5 years ago came to ITU to see if he could use his world class run to get good results. I was on deck helping his coach from time to time and it was interesting that in pool sets he would swim as fast as his training partners on sets who made front pack (Eli Hemming). Yet in races he was one of the last 10 out of the water. And of course for a guy like Webb he simply had a 6 month "try out" in the sport and then if he wasnt progressing he was going to ride off into the sunset. Which he never was able to get the swim down but again his time frame was truly less than 6 months.

LS has now had years, and it still sounds like there is just a little bit of disconnect between the pool and ows. I think one big difference is that in ows scenarios there are small key moments that will decide how the swim goes. Do you burn 12s of effort to catch onto feet, to then gain 50s by the end of the swim, etc. Now I will say in an year where there is only 1 event to actual showcase your hard work paid off, I'm not going to brow beat a guy for not working hard enough on the swim. I dont know the specifics of his options, and uprooting and "traveling" to another location in this covid restrictions has been very challenging.

I think he's maturing enough to realize mistakes and I think learning ways to fix them....not just call them mistakes and "say" he'll work on them. And mind you I've been critical of LS for his "decision" making over the years for coaching/training mistakes especially when it seemed like he was making very short sighted decisions.

I

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

A really great point. Some people panic in open water. I do fine but my wife does not. She is great in a pool but slows way down in open water, for various reasons. It drives me crazy but I'm sure a lot of people can relate. I also have a friend that swam for Purdue in college but struggles with open water. I wonder how much open water vs pool time he has this year.

---

http://www.sfuelsgolonger.com

He hasn't hit his ceiling. He's hit his ceiling at addressing the swim in the most "comfortable" situation that HE dictates. That's what LS is facing.

So LS is at a crossroads of is he willing to give it all up in order to get that 1 min better in the swim and positioning and potentially "wasting" time/money/resources in the event it MAY NOT work out. He could do all that, get the best coaching and he still suck for some reason in the water. But is he willing to take that chance.

He needs some GJ viewpoints on the subject. He needs to look at that decision as an opportunity and investment in himself, not something he is giving up.


And mind you many many athletes and people will forgo that hard decision and continue to live with the "comfortable" decision. He could go all in spend a year on this swim and still potentially come out no better and feel like it's a "waste". But if he's truly tired of his shit swim, that I think is the investment decision he's facing moving forward.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I also think it's an interesting paradox for a guy like LS becuase 75% of the time his "shit swim" is forgiven and he can make bank and results. He can win pretty much any B level or below race regardless of his swim. It's only in the "championship" level that he's being hurt, so that's a really real dynamic in play here. Even with his shit pro level swim he's making a very good life for himself. Lots and lots of people forgo promotions because it means they have to move, etc. and so they are simply happy with the decisions they have to make.

LS seems miffed at his swim, but is he truly ready to take it to the next level? That's something that is a really really hard decision and it's not just a "well I'll swim more T26 workouts". It's a "will I turn my life into a gypsy for 8 months- 2 years to work with the best coaches I can have".

Go look at the ITU guys and gals, very very few actually live at "home". Most live out of suitcases for 8-10 months of the year, but that's the "sacrifice" they are willing to take. If you change your viewpoint and look at it as an investment and opportunity instead of a sacrifice, it can really change your mindset into that decision.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

How much do you really think he can improve his swim? Are we talking taking it to a 2min deficit to an ITU swimmer in a 70.3?

I think in championship races with a 12m draft that kinda deficit is still gonna be a problem. And the other aspect is maintaining his bike and run fitness through this whole process. I dont think it's as simple to assume he will just maintain his hour record and 14:34 5k form throughout, if his focus recently has been on that.

IMO it doesn't seem like he needs all that much to make a big difference. It sounds like he's 98% of the way there, but the final 2% is HUGE difference in making that chase group that he wants to be in or not. And that difference can be as simple as what he's willing to invest in to make it.

Again, you have to be willing to put the swim/bike on "hold" IF you truly think your swim is the main difference in winning championship level races or not. Hell, he's already got what a top 2 bike/run and he himself already acknowledges how easy it is to fix the bike/run because that's his bread and butter. But that's just it with making this type of decision. you have to be willing to actual "sacrifice" something in order to accomplish what you actually want to accomplish (thus why I keep preaching the GJ mindset- dont look at is as an sacrifice but as an opportunity and investment; that changes the whole way you can look at it....but you must be willing to actually look at it that way....and again MANY people in life don't want to make the hard decision that can result in a huge payday; many people like the "comfortable" setting they are in even if they aren't making the absolute most money/career etc; so no fault if an person decides to not make that "investment").

Your line of thinking is where LS has been, "well I'll invest but I also dont want to screw over my bike/run".......that has gotten him a pretty damn good career already as I stated, he can win pretty much any B level race on his "shit" swim. What he can't do is put himself into a position to actual win a true career defining race with his current setup.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Being 32 he's got probaly 4-5 more "prime" years for LC racing. But then of course the way the sport is changing it's only getting faster and faster etc, and the demands of competition are only getting more defined. So ultimately it's truly an decision of how much "all in" do you want to do. If you think the negative bike/run fitness or the idea that you may fail after all the hard work means you never do it; that's fine. Tons of people in life live by that decision making every day with regards to job promotions, saying yes/no to an job etc.

But the only way a guy like LS can truly compete at championship level events is to fix the swim so that he can be in better position to allow his bike/run to take over. And that comes with a big chance. You may not make it, even after all the hard work. That could truly be the case.

So as I've said, it's a fucking hard decision for a guy in LS's shoes because for majority of races he can win and make money in spite of his poor swim. It's really only the championship level that he's hurt and not able to over come it. So then you have to look at a whole cost / benefit analysis just like thousands of people every day do that decide to say "no" to the promotion because they don't want to work more hours and don't want to miss out their kids t-ball games in the afternoon. Does a company fault a guy who chooses "family" over more money and a promotion? The downside is that that guy usually never gets asked for a promotion again because the company knows his mindset.

So LS said he is tired of his swim being the crutch and he wanted accountability. The only real solution I see is being a gypsy for an year and go swim with a swim coach he trusts and values. Build the bike/run around that and be "ok" with down power numbers etc.


If you do that and you still fail, I think you atleast can look yourself in the mirror and to the fans/media/sponsors and say "I have done everything I can, it is what it is". But again, that's a BIG decision and could be "costly" in the short term and so it's a super hard decision. But that's likely the reality he's facing.



(and mind you I'm facing that type of coaching career decision myself in respect to building an daily training program, am I willing to "sacrifice" comfort in order to build a group of athletes that one day competes on an international world class level)...it's bloody hard to go 10000% "all in" with no potential safety net. You may or may not make it.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

My thinking is more it's unlikely he's winning 12m draft 70.3 championship races unless he improves all 3 disciplines.

He and I both know what the 2%. What it is not is chasing around for some guru with a panacea solution. Context is always key.

Lionel is, as you can tell from his videos, very hard on himself. Almost all world class athletes are (I've worked with a plethora of them), most just don´t publicly say as much.

It is almost ironic when Lionel has a poor swim, this debate comes up. But when you see the championship races littered with great swim-bikers whose run let´s them down no one is decrying their ways saying "Go to Iten and train with Kenyan´s and forgo your swimming.... Go work with run guru X, Y, Z to change your gait etc...."

There are very few truly truly rounded world class athletes on LC world stage currently, everyone else is playing to their strengths.





Nobody ever truly sacrifices their strengths to focus on their weaknesses at world class level, it is simply subtle shifts in focus for a sustained period of time consistently.

I´ll tell you now and you can grill me on it in 12 months but Lionel has room for improvement across all three sports and our intent is to realise those improvements, steadily and sensibly.

---

David T-D
http://www.tilburydavis.com

Man I know what you mean about the coaching decision. It's a tough one.

But like Jonny Brownlee once said "as athletes we delude ourselves on a daily basis - but sometimes it pays off!"

Aside from the swim where to you see the main potential for improvement?

Biking.... small gains in aerodynamics *without* compromising power, thermoregulation, digestion

Running.... building on the run speed and resilience he has built up plus understanding fully fuelling demands of goal bike power (we have already investigated this but it does shift when training shifts in intensity bias).


Let me explain why that point about bike is so vital to every athlete....

- You train hard and get your FTP up to 300w
- So some logic would dictate you´ll race your IM bike split at 225w (75%)
- Problem is at 225w you are burning 120g/carbs per hour
- In this flawed scenario your run *will* suck

---

David T-D
http://www.tilburydavis.com

To me the end goal isn't winning though. It's the mindset an athlete has to have that is the end goal. Listening to LS he doesn't have the confidence that he's fully doing enough to finish a race and say "you know what, I did all I could to get there, and I simply lost to a better athlete". LS still views loses as things he's not doing properly, and if it's truely the case then that needs to change. But if he and his coach can say "we're doing everything in our power to do the right steps and we just didn't win", that's totally different.

And that I think is what athlete's should focus on not the end goal of winning. Winning is too fucking hard and too fucking high of a bar to set. Putting yourself in a situation to win is a better objective and mindset, IMO, because winning can be too subjetive to that day. But creating an program that gets your full, isn't. That seems to be what he's chasing, imo.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

that is an interesting point. it seems more than any other discipline, swimming attracts this element of "go train in the woods (well, pool) with Micky for 3 months and discover your inner fish." Some of the gurus are pretty good, mind you. But some are just teaching you how to dodge a wrench.

It is almost ironic when Lionel has a poor swim, this debate comes up. But when you see the championship races littered with great swim-bikers whose run let´s them down no one is decrying their ways

------

Because no one in LC racing basically besides LS puts himself out there to be a fan favorite and target, plain and simple. LS is easy to dump on because he's a favorite of both the fans and haters. He most certainly has benefitted from this in sponsor support etc, and he's probaly the ideal showcase of how to build a "brand" and race at a world class level. In that aspect he's doing it right and is setting himself up financially.

Subtle shifts of course, but it's shifts that must be done or else you'd never improve a key weakness such as LS's swim. Athletes aint robots, so at some point whether you call it a sacrifice or shift, that's semantics.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

That is a good point you make but there is a subtle difference that pans out at the pinnacle of many sports.

The intent of a good athlete and a good coach starts out as ”Fulfillment” front and centre, cross that finish line and as you say feel like everything has been done to achieve said performance. This premise becomes a cornerstone of the planning and training, wholeheartedly.

Then the race happens and when the above intent happens as a purely objective outcome, what happens.... The coach and athlete reflect almost immeidately on what could have been done better or subtly different to have gone faster.

The interwebs is littered with examples of this in Olympic podium level athletes and coaches. This gnawing persistent dissatisfaction is both a strength and weakness of the athlete and coach.

---

David T-D
http://www.tilburydavis.com

I´ll tell you now and you can grill me on it in 12 months but Lionel has room for improvement across all three sports and our intent is to realise those improvements, steadily and sensibly.


——-

I won’t need to grill you because the coach sees the improvements and can reason with the athlete the end result. The peanut gallery doesn’t, it only views things from the end result.

You can hold your head high if everything is firing in training and you just have a “bad day”. Where an athlete loses confidence is when you review a race and you know issues were there and you can’t justiy why it wasn’t addressed.


Eta: and we all know of situations where athletes have “fired” a coach when they likely used bad decision making but the gist was the athlete lost faith/trust even if only based on a result. You hope to empower athletes to make good informed decisions and that’s about all you can do in terms of how they truly respond after “bad” results.

---

Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

My observation... Lionel's weakness is the swim because of the three sports it's the one where he can't just "hurt more" to perform better.

This right here. I haven't even watched the video but I know exactly what he's going to say. Just like how he vowed to focus on nutrition after his previously failed kona attempts.

People wonder why their are "lionel haters" out there. This is the exact reason. He's hard to root for because fans are tried of hearing the same sob story from him after the most important race of the year and when it truly matters. He can't get out of his damn way and is his own worst enemy.

I really hope DTD is getting through to him.

---

blog