Sorry but Nilsson will outrun Lange! Seems probable that they will enter t2 together so I like Nilsson better for a dark horse. Of course we don't know how fast Frodo/Sanders can run after this hard bike, but I think they will need a 2:42 at least to keep the runners away.

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Well, Lionel's attack apparently spit Lange out the back (per the blog he's 2:19 back now).

I totally agree... You're new to all of this...

I'm confused help me out!

Is Lionel that bad a runner? I thoght he was at the very top?
Why would he burn so many matches on the bike, why does lionel not just bridge to Frodeno group and save the legs from the surge to Frodeno group and just sit tight untill T2?

Is it because he knows Lange etc. would outrun him?

Or is kienle/Sanders changing in the front to save themselves?

yeah, you're right, I missed that. He's gonna have a lot of chasing to do on the run..

It didn't look like Lionel and Sebi attacked at all...just kept up the pace. Maybe this is the pace that they can ride and run well, and this is a great effort by them. It didn't seem like they sat in then gunned it at all.

Lionel and Sebi both run well on beat up legs. If they are steady and keep this up, it's going to be a huge deficit for Lange at T2 I think.

Brent

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DFRU - Detta Family Racing Unit...the kids like it and we all get out and after it...gotta keep the fam involved!

Nilsonn and Lange have been shed off the back, so he/they are doing damage....to be seen if he is doing himself any favours though.

Well I think that was pretty much expected, I only thought it would be later in the race for these guys to get popped off. It now seems unless all the runners up front blow up, it is going to be low podium spots those guys are fighting for. I didn't have Niilson in my top 5, still think he can be 6th though??

Lionel is a great runner, and cracks probably last. He is extremely well positioned. He held IM record until Tim Don broke it in Brasil, he runs 1:10-1:14 for the half like it's nobody's business. This race so far is playing exactly in his hand.

Maybe he doesn’t think he’s burning matches? I believe he rode the same watts at Arizona and ran well, but it was much cooler there. But then again he didn’t really build into Arizona like he has for Kona so maybe he thinks he can ride this hard and run well?

No Lionel is not at bad runner, neither is Frodo. However both Lange and Nilsson are better runners and if Sanders were to sit in after he bridged the gap it would be tough for him to get the win. His best chance (and frodos) is a several min gap to the Patrik's.
I think both Patrik's could run a 2:38 if they need to, so will be interesting to see how the gap extends. Right now Nilsson seems to be leading the chase group 1:40 behind with Lange 30s further behind. Hope he doesn't lead all the way back and saves those legs! Would be awesome to get a Swedish win in Kona! We do have a 2-time champion Jonas Colting, however that is Ultraman...

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Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

I am not saying he is the best but I am saying that he will push the pace more than the other guys and some will be able to hang on as they are great riders but a lot will try to hang in and get sh1t out the back.

Yea he runs hard until he goes down! I think - the way today is playing - lionel either wins or blows up in epic porportions (like texas a feet years ago)

Bozzone is another dark horse lurking.. Historically Kona hasn't suited him but he only needs one perfect day. Could this be it?

It's very early but i think Frodeno will be denied a 3rd IMWC today.

so u saying that great biker should sit and tow a great runner back to t2? lol

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The entire event (IM) is like "death by 1000 cuts" and the best race is minimizing all those cuts and losing less blood than the other guy. - Dev

Why? I think he's very well poisitioned just hanging on w/ the front group

.........whoever posted that Mr. T video on the prediction thread........ I think they are exactly correct the way this is going........

Side note Sian Welsh leading womens 50-54 by 5 minutes...really out biking her piers.

Maurice

So the only guy with wurf, sanders and keinle is frommhold. How’s his run?

In the womens race, how about Lucy still leading at this stage? Also, Lauren has just been sitting in this whole time. If it comes done to the run, who's got the advantage between Lucy and Lauren (I don't know much about these womens) or will Daniella be able to bike/ run them down?

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Take a short break from ST and read my blog:
http://tri-banter.blogspot.com/

The tracker function seems a but funky at times, but kind of looks like sanders has already lost a 1;30 on the downhill?? Now that is to Wurf of course, but it appears Sebi is not that far back from him, is this tracker thing working for you guys?

that would be horrible for Lionel to lose as much time as it took him 20 miles to get back at the beginning of the race just because of bike handling..

Looks like he’s a minute and a half down

“Not sure what you are looking at, but he hit the turnaround at about 44+ pace given the course swims out neutral. Which would make sense if he were to go around a 45 or so, a little over two minutes short from the previous record, so he is going to be very close to Lars record on the longer course comparatively. 44;30 would be a pretty even swim against that old record, and he is on that pace now.”


1 47:09 Josh Amberger


“It is more like 7+ minutes dev, dont forget Josh out there pulling the lead group towards him. And he is lengthening his lead from the swim it looks like, so putting a lot of pressure on some athletes to keep the pace high in that chasing group. This is going to make any catch happen much later than normal, I'm saying not until after the turnaround, if at all really. It may just be the lead group breaks up before any of those 3 even get there, then it is just picking off the strongest of the bunch..”


Sanders in lead before the turn.

Nothing against him and it's really just a hunch but having Lionel pushing hard at the front and with great running, and Lange and Nisson on his back will make it for really interesting run dynamics that he hasn't seen before. I honestly expected Lionel to be down 1-2 mins at the turnaround and now anyone's race. Something tells me Lionel could take it.

Lauren's run is quite weak, relatively speaking. She won't finish top 10. I'm not sure about Lucy, but doubt either podiums.