I think it really depends on your training cause it's completely different for the two.

In saying that I think the biggest issue you have is 1.30 pace is pretty much your OD pace isn't it?

I would say my run training is more HM focussed. I'm on about 70km a week and will be doing my first marathon in June, so slowly building towards that. OD 10km av = 4.08 sub 1.30 would be 4.16. I'd be happy with 1.32/33 though. I do seem to run better than at HM that some of the other guys in my AG who are quicker at 5/10km.

Yeah ok I know that feeling I am the same.

Have you done any runs off the bike lately?

I've got a 70.3 coming up in 6 weeks and I'm just curious to know how people's 10km OD run time compares to their 70.3 run time. I did a 70.3 in December and ran 1.37, but that was hot, 105 F and I struggled the last 8km with the heat. I did a OD last weekend and ran 41.20 (good conditions). I'd like to run low 1.30s or maybe even break 1.30. However some of the guys I race against are running well under 40mins for the OD and only running mid 1.30s for their 70.3 run time.... some of them aren't strong on the swim and/or bike so it's a bit hard to compare. I think sub 1.30 is unrealistic, maybe 1.32 - 1.34? Conditions will probably be mild, so good running weather. Thoughts?


BTW I don't have a recent half marathon/10km stand alone time. Haven't done one for 2 years. I did a 5km last August in 19.30, but am a bit fitter now.

Based on the 41:20 10K time, I'd guess a 1:35-ish run next week.

I am just going to give you my data point. I do not do myself as n=1 in anything, we are all different, but you can glean into this a bit and start connecting dots.
Run performance during a triathlon race is a function of the following general factors:
Two unrelated factors to this discussion but relevant: pre race breakfast and fueling+ environmental conditions during race- assume you got both working in your favor.
1. Swim fitness/ swim pacing
2. Bike fitness/ bike pacing
3. Bike fueling
4. Run fitness/ run pacing and run fueling- run fueling matters in HIM

This above is just a reference for the frame of discussion. I have run multiple times 19:30-19:14 open 5Ks. I have also run 1:29 open half marathon. My fastest 70.3 run split ever was 1:37 on a hot day. I did lack bike fitness to bike 2:30ish, but I did it anyway and overcooked it on that given day.
Is it realistic for you to run low 1:30s? I think so. Specifically if you address yourself in that above order that I layed out. Key being bike fitness, bike pacing and bike fueling. In HIM that matters.
I think sub 1:30 is a bit unrealistic, right now, I do agree. Depending on where you are in development, sub 1:30 could very well be in the cards. I do not think you are that far. Rooting for you!

In my n=1, I regularly knock out 40min Oly splits (hoping to go under that this year) and my best-executed half-IM run to date was a 1:30 flat. I think a 1:30 is a bit ambitious in your case.

For reference, a clean HM I do in 1:24, so I guess Oly run pace = clean HM pace.