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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [Ksavostin] [ In reply to ]
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Honest question: What do you think is the major bottle neck in Canyons supply chain?

Maybe somebody actually KNOWS (then chip in), but I can imagine several scenarios:

1. Frame raw materials - not super likely. They have a very high markup on the frames and hence, can buy carbon at a high price (outcompeting other industries)

2. Frame (and other own sourced partns) manufacturing capacity - Could be machine capacity or mold capacity, not very likely FTE capacity. I know production capacity is in many cases (not necesarily Canyon) prioritized on bike categories with a higher turn-over and margin, example eMTB frames, where bike manufacturers are making MUCH more EBITDA, than on Triathlon bikes.

3. Third-party parts supply: Shimano & SRAM are examples of suppliers who has been hit hard during Covid19, but I guess they should be able to catch up faster. Very likely

4. Overall badly managed supply network - if you just miss ONE part in assembling the 100s of parts that makes a bike, you cannot deliver. Very likely

5. Artificial Scarcity, the same way as Sony has always held back over-supplying Playstations to meet the huge demand. This will bring up the demand and hence the price point. Certainly an option.

6. The overall GTM/supply model - that you can ONLY buy fixed/set configurations. This puts some constraints throughout the whole SC. This is a fact.

By all means Canyons owners must be bleedning in the unsustainable supply situation, losing sales and losing customers (forever?)

T
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [Mulen] [ In reply to ]
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No one that actually knows is going to say much.
I did comment on some of what you mention earlier in the week https://forum.slowtwitch.com/...st=7896355#p7896355+

Point 4 extremely unlikely, given how thorough their PM team is.
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [Mulen] [ In reply to ]
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Mulen wrote:
Honest question: What do you think is the major bottle neck in Canyons supply chain?

Maybe somebody actually KNOWS (then chip in), but I can imagine several scenarios:

1. Frame raw materials - not super likely. They have a very high markup on the frames and hence, can buy carbon at a high price (outcompeting other industries)

2. Frame (and other own sourced partns) manufacturing capacity - Could be machine capacity or mold capacity, not very likely FTE capacity. I know production capacity is in many cases (not necesarily Canyon) prioritized on bike categories with a higher turn-over and margin, example eMTB frames, where bike manufacturers are making MUCH more EBITDA, than on Triathlon bikes.

3. Third-party parts supply: Shimano & SRAM are examples of suppliers who has been hit hard during Covid19, but I guess they should be able to catch up faster. Very likely

4. Overall badly managed supply network - if you just miss ONE part in assembling the 100s of parts that makes a bike, you cannot deliver. Very likely

5. Artificial Scarcity, the same way as Sony has always held back over-supplying Playstations to meet the huge demand. This will bring up the demand and hence the price point. Certainly an option.

6. The overall GTM/supply model - that you can ONLY buy fixed/set configurations. This puts some constraints throughout the whole SC. This is a fact.

By all means Canyons owners must be bleedning in the unsustainable supply situation, losing sales and losing customers (forever?)

T

I dont think its frames, here in Europe theres almost always stock on Sram ones. And given how even LBS's have issues getting Shimano parts id say Shimano is one them.

If I have to bet, is because they actually dont want to sell that many. Might sound silly and give the feeling that they are loosing money, but when they sell everything they've got no matter the price, they dont need more. If you have too much offer the demand will decrease and hence the product will be harder to sell. Im almost sure they have a business analysis behind on how much to produce for this sweetspot also considering other costs

At the same time, many LBS's here have entered this loop of not selling-can't sell because no sizes-not ordering because noone buys. Many shops cant afford having too much stock on their shelves that are not being sold after COVID, so they are not buying more, and as they are not buying more because they just have too many, they dont order because its not worth for the supplier, and then you find that people cant buy these bikes because there are no sizing for them. Im starting to see heavy discounts on top end bikes here ( like 30% less on a Tarmac SL7 ) and its not being sold, at all

I guess that at some point it will be more stable. But canyon as it stands right now, in terms of TT bikes are much much cheaper than any other brand for the same quality. You would easily have to pay 2k more for same package on other brands
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [Rheed] [ In reply to ]
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Apologies if it has been discussed, but how does Canyon get away with a 2 year warranty on their bikes? $17K AUD for their top of the line CFR Speedmax, and Canyon's faith in their quality extends to a 2 year warranty? I am in the market for a new bike and I am wondering if there is any point in looking at a manufacturer that can't provide a lifetime warranty on their frames and forks, i.e. Trek, Cervelo
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [Fresh79] [ In reply to ]
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It's a two year warranty, but a six year "guarantee" on the frame. But neither cover the classic caveat of "wear and tear", which is always open to different interpretations. When the current batch of Speedmax came out the prices also jumped pretty substantially, and that with the poor warranty put me onto a Cervelo.
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [Mulen] [ In reply to ]
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Iā€™m still riding a 2011 Felt DA. I figure eventually that frame, bikes with no integration and rim brakes will be cool and considered aero again and Iā€™ll have saved about $5000šŸ˜‰
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
Specialized tried with the wide fork thing and big tub of liquid in the back, but that doesn't appear to have taken the world by storm.

I honestly think that bike would have been a world beater if they made it even remotely affordable. I think the cheapest trickle down version was still $9k, right?

When the Shiv tri came out and could be purchased for anywhere from $2500ish to $10k, you saw nothing BUT Shiv Tris at all your local races.

I think the next revolution in super bikes is making super bikes that people can adapt on a large scale.

___________________________________
MS: Exercise Science
Your speed matters a lot, sometimes you need to be very fast, where sometimes you need to breakdown your speed.
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [IKnowEverything] [ In reply to ]
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Agree.

I think when I got into Tri not long ago the Felt IA was new. Same concept you mention. Many different models with different group sets and carbon lay up. AND PRICES. But something for everyone. IA16 to FRD.

crazy to think what a new bike costs (yes, we can debate on whether anyone ā€œneedsā€ a new bike, but they all are $$$$)
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [Mulen] [ In reply to ]
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IMHO weā€™ll see more of:
- monoblock cockpits (helping both comfort and chest-gap closing)
- integrated fueling systems
- classified rear hubs allowing to run monster 1x 58T or bigger
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [marcoruggine] [ In reply to ]
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marcoruggine wrote:
IMHO weā€™ll see more of:
- monoblock cockpits (helping both comfort and chest-gap closing)
- integrated fueling systems
- classified rear hubs allowing to run monster 1x 58T or bigger

I'm not so sure.

- Monoblock cockpits or super extensions require a fair degree of adjustability built in (that many of the aftermarket ones don't allow once set up) so whilst possible, I suspect we're more likely to see more hybrid set ups.
- Integrated fueling systems already exist anyway for those that want them.
- Classified rear hubs are all hype and is mechanically more inefficient. It's pretty hard to improve on the traditional derailleur systems. Yes, it could be argued that the inefficiencies could be offset by drag savings but some of us are already running 1x systems anyway.
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [marcoruggine] [ In reply to ]
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I was thinking about drivetrains and how there has to be a better way. The chain and sprocket has been used for over 100 years. It's ubiquity and optimization are two huge advantages, so anything to compete needs to come out of the box measurably faster.

Ceramicspeed had a neat idea for a shaft driven ( https://granfondo-cycling.com/...oad-bike-drivetrain/ ) but I don't trust their internally tested data. (It's shown in a pristine state, presumably their comparison to dura-ace was done with famously slow factory grease, their bearings all appear to be unsealed. Not to mention the wear on those ~12 roller bearings must be insane. Effectively 10x that on a regular ~120 link chain.

All of this to say it's a really neat idea, and there's definitely opportunity for something faster than the traditional chain/sprocket. Maybe something hydraulic if the losses can be limited, then the entire drivetrain can be internal.
Last edited by: mathematics: Apr 6, 23 5:48
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [mathematics] [ In reply to ]
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It all comes down to consumer cost.

The tech is there to build whatever anyone wants - I mean they can self land rockets, cars can drive themselves, multiple space tech companies, all require tech + material science. The matter just comes down to cost for the consumer and durability.

I think the integration of graphene may be next for materials and tech will come into play (auto shifters, gimbals to keep the front wheel perfectly straight to alleviate used energy from the wind, etc) anything that helps the cyclist simply pedal and not think as much or use as much energy but not yet on the border of forward assistance.
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [BigToe] [ In reply to ]
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BigToe wrote:
It all comes down to consumer cost.

The matter just comes down to cost for the consumer and durability.

So you don't think big brands (Spec., Trek, Giant, Canyon, Cannondale, BMC, Wilier, etc.) try to recoup R&D and production costs?

Do you think analysis and sales projections are done to get a model of bike sales volume needed to recoup the cost of a single frame mold in a single size?

To make the math easy, development of a mold for a single frame model with 4-5 frame sizes (XS, S, M, L, XL) costs ~$US100,000. This is exclusive of materials, parts/components, non-related R&D, employee payroll, and other operational costs of dev. and prod. even by established factories, etc.

Now, consider the observed trends in event participation and registration.
And now, consider where other trends are pointing (hint: gravel, ebikes).

So, are the costs consumer demand driven or manufacturer supply driven?

no sponsors | no races | nothing to see here
Last edited by: philly1x: Apr 6, 23 15:20
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [philly1x] [ In reply to ]
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All I'd like to see for other ppl is a disk brake tririg omni. For the life of me I cannot understand why this isnt one of the more popular bikes, it is already coming with a good cockpit, is very aero adjustable and has all the after market storage etc already include. It is easily assembled and transported with one set of Allen keys set up for 1x out of the box highly position adjustable.

And it's relatively cheap.

For me I'm fine with rim brakes but if we are going disk across the industry it's hard to imagine many more changes can make a bike much more aero than this.
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [Kipstar] [ In reply to ]
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Kipstar wrote:
All I'd like to see for other ppl is a disk brake tririg omni. For the life of me I cannot understand why this isnt one of the more popular bikes, it is already coming with a good cockpit, is very aero adjustable and has all the after market storage etc already include. It is easily assembled and transported with one set of Allen keys set up for 1x out of the box highly position adjustable.

And it's relatively cheap.

For me I'm fine with rim brakes but if we are going disk across the industry it's hard to imagine many more changes can make a bike much more aero than this.

When US$5995 for just the frame is "relatively cheap"... this sport has issues.
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [slow_bob] [ In reply to ]
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [Jimmy0077] [ In reply to ]
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Jimmy0077 wrote:
Kind of lame to say, but more is not allowed.
But this year a major bicycle brand will introduce a unique innovation in the field of aerodymics. And I don't mean a faster bike.

No, they won't, lol. But I'm guessing you heard that from a reliable friend or pro team mechanic.
Every time someone on this forum has 'inside' knowledge of something new, it either never happens, or happens 3 years later.
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [UK Gearmuncher] [ In reply to ]
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UK Gearmuncher wrote:
cyclenutnz wrote:
Of the brands you mention, only Giant hasn't released an updated Trinity.


It's curious as to why. Maybe the pandemic slowed development or production start up but its interesting for a bike design that is 10 years old now (and hugely popular in the UK) has now allowed itself to be caught so far behind. Even if they rely on the Cadex arm to do the heavy lifting for them, they're still going to need a new TT bike for the worldtour pro's.

UCI had some rule changes 1/1/2023 so we were all waiting for that to be published. A typical product cycle is 2 years. All the data I've collected on 3:1 airfoils and learning from Felt, 3T, Specialized, etc has largely been outdated. We're not using 3:1 for UCI bikes anymore, fork blades are now over 8:1 in functional cross section. a 8:1 foil is about 600% more efficient than a 3:1 "airfoil". With 3:1 you basically reduced frontal area as much as the rules would allow (1cm minimum width for fork blades) and added depth where you needed more width for strength.

Hopefully we'll get the new bike raced at Worlds so it can be used at the Olympics. It's been mindblowing how much faster the new rules allow (UCI legal) bikes to be.

-SD

https://www.kickstarter.com/...bike-for-the-new-era
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [trail] [ In reply to ]
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trail wrote:
marcag wrote:

I wasn't referring to aerosticks specifically.

There are several things they could onboard that would give more improvement than what they can accomplish by tweeking the frame.


Yes, I picked up on that. I was just referring to the stillborn aerostick revolution of the past. Fully agree there's room for other tech things.

I want to finish up a project I'd conceived to maintain legal-but-in-the-draft space for riders. Think of the Gamin Varia tech but mounted on the front of your bike so you can ride up into the draft of the rider ahead of you and stay in the legal distance. Like a range-finder it can also be tweaked to determine closing speed, etc.

It could be mandated equipment as well so there would no longer need to be a judgement call for a penalty.

I gotta get that thing up on kickstarter.

-SD

https://www.kickstarter.com/...bike-for-the-new-era
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [SuperDave] [ In reply to ]
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SuperDave wrote:
I want to finish up a project I'd conceived to maintain legal-but-in-the-draft space for riders. Think of the Gamin Varia tech but mounted on the front of your bike so you can ride up into the draft of the rider ahead of you and stay in the legal distance. Like a range-finder it can also be tweaked to determine closing speed, etc.

-SD

that's how https://www.raceranger.com/ is getting used - Pros are finding it easier to legally draft
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [cyclenutnz] [ In reply to ]
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cyclenutnz wrote:
SuperDave wrote:

I want to finish up a project I'd conceived to maintain legal-but-in-the-draft space for riders. Think of the Gamin Varia tech but mounted on the front of your bike so you can ride up into the draft of the rider ahead of you and stay in the legal distance. Like a range-finder it can also be tweaked to determine closing speed, etc.

-SD


that's how https://www.raceranger.com/ is getting used - Pros are finding it easier to legally draft

Wow, I'd missed that. I guess no good idea goes undeveloped.

-SD

https://www.kickstarter.com/...bike-for-the-new-era
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [SuperDave] [ In reply to ]
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That sounds like you're working too much and cruising ST too little
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [SuperDave] [ In reply to ]
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i just want to say i'm glad to see superdave here. you show up for a whiskey and a cigar every now and then, but not often enough. just in the last couple of days i've seen jens, chung and superdave. the forum's average IQ went up noticeably.

Dan Empfield
aka Slowman
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Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [ In reply to ]
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Re: Next Generation of Superbikes - When & What to expect? [Jimmy0077] [ In reply to ]
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Jimmy0077 wrote:
Kind of lame to say, but more is not allowed.
But this year a major bicycle brand will introduce a unique innovation in the field of aerodymics. And I don't mean a faster bike.

Is the BMC related to this ?
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