I mean, Sam Long is one of the leanest triathletes on the circuit. Nobody is leaner than Jan but there’s only a couple guys as lean as Long.

Keep an eye on Rudy Von Berg in the next 5 years along with Ben, until then, hopefully Matt H??

Is Rudy Von Berg American? I thought he was from France or Italy???

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The man with the Halo!

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Per his profile he was born in the US then lived in France from age 2 to 19. He has been racing for the US since 2015
https://www.triathlon.org/...1/rodolphe_von_berg1

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Matt

US has 4 in 10 years at podium. Germany have most, Australia loads too and Belgium has same as US. Last spaniard on podium was Llanos. Gomez is a likely one to be on a podium there as in most race he take part in. Currie may be on podium one day too

What´s most likely doesnt always happen. If you look on the competition in general, T-O on the podium wasnt likely.
He may last a few years but this was for sure his best race. Quite old though so will not last forever.


Us do have some young guys coming up Rudy von Berg and Kanute.
Maybe they will do good results at long distance (full)too

Donald Trump. He is training full time.

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

Rudy for sure, young with a real promising future

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Tough Times Don't Last, Tough People Do.

Katie Zafares will be the next US Kona winner.

Given the dearth or racing this year there hasn’t been much to talk about so I thought I would revisit this thread I made about 2.5 years ago.

A year after posting we saw Tim O’Donnell place 2nd (behind a record breaking Jan) at the 2019 edition of Kona becoming just the 4th person to ever break 8 on the big island. Ben Hoffman was two spots back in 4th place, and was on pace to run down Kienle for 3rd before running out of real estate. His run split was just 25 seconds slow than Jans that day.

A few months ago we saw Matt Hanson use a strong run to chase down the everyone by Iden and finish 2nd at the stacked PTO championship.

A couple of guys that I didn’t mention but other posters had...

Rudy Von Berg
At the 2019 70.3 word championships in Nice he finished 3rd behind Iden (who has looked unbeatable at the 70.3-ish distance in his past 2 races) and Alistair (whose face would be on the Mount Rushmore of triathlon). A great biker, he has quite a few 70.3 victories and podiums so far. Not sure when he’ll make his full IM debut. At 27, time is on his side.

Sam Long
A quick count on ObsTri shows he has done 30 IM branded races with 13 being full Ironman races. And he is only 25. Is he going to burn himself out or destroy his body at this rate? Who knows, but he’s got a giant motor and a lot of potential. Big questions are can he become a 2nd pack swimmer and can he run well on the big island with his frame?

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Matt

I love this post, just in general.

Ben Kanute: I would LOVE to see Kanute find his racing ability. He appears to work hard and smart, and I’m waiting for his ITU speed (perhaps not top 5 ITU speed, but still) to hit longer distances.

RvB: honestly hadn’t heard of him until later this year, and I’m excited to see where he’ll go. PTO was a great glimpse into his potential.

Sam Long: If any American I’ve seen lately can make it to the consistent winning and podium conversation, it’s Sam. Epic training days and some insane runs. The swim may be a challenge, but it only needs to be “good enough” in my opinion. He’s not TOO far off that now.

Matt Hansen: massively impressive PTO race. I think Iden got very lucky with the bike because of his swim, if that makes sense. I don’t know he could’ve managed that race without what was essentially a free ride on the bike, and then Hansen would’ve taken it. Obviously, Iden deserved and earned the victory, but that was a pretty unique situation with how that bike leg looked. Hansen looked phenomenal throughout the run, and again I think the uniqueness of the bike played out differently than is typical, in Hansen’s case for the worse.

ITU Wildcard: maybe we’ll see a young gun or two jump over to long course after these Olympics. I’d love that, and I think that’s the “correct” pathway for future IM success given how mind-bending the long course running is getting. If those guys can learn to ride in aero and avoid injury, they’ll be difficult to beat.

I’d add that I think iron distance racing is less of a puzzle than it has been for the pros. You mostly see nutritional mistakes and injury taking guys out. Those are easier and easier to handle these days, particularly with newer science on strength training and carb intake. It’s going to get wild when everyone starts to hit 120g/hour on the bike (and maybe even the run) comfortably. I think we haven’t seen that potential fulfilled yet, and I predict we’ll start to see bike/run combos that make better and better racing. I’m hopeful that we’ll get more like Daytona at more major events, with big groups actually racing each other inside the last hour.

RVB is imo just building his racing resume, building his tool box, year after year in the shadows of others. The guy has gotten some really good results the past 2+ years and is still the "unknown". Also he's still fairly young and can just continue to build that speed to turn into an IM force at the prescribed right time.

Chemist's notes on Sam Long's # of IM's is eye catching in the wrong type of eye catching atleast for such a young athlete at only what 24/25 years old.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

It will be interesting to watch the careers of Long and RVB side by side. They are both larger (for tri) guys who are close in age and based out of Colorado (I think they were on the same college team?). They however are taking very different approaches to racing. Long has probably done more 70.3 and IM races than any other pro. RVB seems to have a more “calculated” type approach to racing and deciding when to ‘move up.’

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Matt

RVB seems to be the guy that has demonstrated the most Kona potential. Almost all the proven guys at Kona (ex Lionel) will age out over the next 2-4 years. Big question for these Americans is what foreign contemporaries will emerge. AB, Gustav, etc could be there as road blocks. There will be some Americans in the mix (like now) but we don’t have a Gustav.

It would be interesting to see if an American male champion would elevate the profile of the sport and crossover nowadays.

It would be interesting to see if an American male champion would elevate the profile of the sport and crossover nowadays.

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I dont think so, I think the sport is "IM" to begin with, so I dont think there is much to actually elevate beyond what it is now.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Don't forget that longdistance racing is something completly different compared to olympic distance. Even a 70.3 is more a slow olympic than a fast ironman. There is no doubt that the guys you mentioned like Iden, RvB, Kanute, AB etc. are top athletes with huge potetial but first they have to figure out how longdistance racing work for them (and they can, there is no doubt).

I think longdistance racing is a different thing and especally Hawaii is whole different world. There are only a few guys like Jan, Sebi, Ben, TO (maybe a few more?) who can deliver top results on the big island every year. Everyone with huge potential and good results on the shorter distances has to prove himself in Kona first..

Sorry if it's a little bit off topic but I wanted to share my thoughts. :)

100% agree.

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The other caveat is that LC racing is always going to be sorta a crap shot vs SC racing, where if you fuck it up, you get to try again in 2-3 weeks. You fuck up an IM, you generally can't get a "do over", until your body heals up, build back up, etc etc.

(yes I know there are pros out there that can race back to back weekends, but you get the point). When you go deep into an IM, you have to recover before "trying again".

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I don't see any American winning it in the next 5-6 years(it saddens me to say that as an American). I would not bet on Kanute unless his run improves, I think his best at 70.3 was 1:15 and these days thats not going to cut it when guys are running below 1:10 just to place in the top 5 basically. I do like Rudy von Berg and how he has been really consistently, competitive at 70.3 so it would seem that he has room to improve barring injury. Let's see what Sam Long does for another year or two before we put him that category of 'possible American winners of Kona'. Lets not forget that guys like Iden and Blummenfeldt are coming to long course sooner or later as will Vincent Luis. On the women's side.....yikes that looks even worse right now, Sarah True (sorry forget her last name now) looked quite competitive until that heat thing came up (which seems to really overtaken her). Maybe ITU athletes will come ever but until I see them at 70.3 its really hard to say.

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"see the world as it is not as you want it to be"

I think an American win won't lift the sport much. But if it could be sustained winning from that American or multiple Americans it could provide significant lift to the sport and it's coverage. Also getting an WTS event here again would be very helpful to raise the profile of the sport.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

You should go check out the thread on Sam's last swim workout. He's at least fours years to never away from getting his swim where it needs to be. And in that four years, the guys at the front will continue to improve in the swim.

Tim

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USAT I believe they lost 6 figures the last times time in San Diego and Chicago hosting WTS events. They likely want no part in the WTS tour anymore.

Obviously hosting the '28 Olympics, it'll only be a requirement for LA to be a '27 WTS event (or test event at min).

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

I guess I would want to know how high in the 6 figures for the loss. 100-200k? Call that an investment. 600-900k? Yeah bad juju. When USA Rugby held the rights to the US 7s Series stop they lost an insane amount of money and basically bankrupted the Union.

Any WTS or Conti Cup event would need investment from a local sports commission, that's where the money is. Not from USAT. And an event would need to be stuck in for a good amount of time.

The US has only hosted an 5 times in the 11 years (granted 2020 season was basically canceled). The issue with that is also that USAT rotated the event from DC to SD when they got it back, and then to Chicago. The key for this is to have retained the event and kept it in the same city the entire time.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

You should go watch the DC event it's hilarious.....they had the transition in wait for it....grass.....lol


The issue with the US for WTS holds and back to the OP winning Kona. I don't think it matters, I think we are sorta stuck in our ways with how "we" view the sport. You have so many AG'ers out there that couldn't name 2 pro's and so all they want is their IM races for them, etc. I think the bigger problem with Kona is what PS and Joel Filliol stated about Kona a few years back...."IM has set it up that if you aren't a Kona weather type of athlete you wont win and then you suddenly *suck*".

I think KZ could be a good long term LC athlete I wonder what she does post Olympics with potential family etc (yes I know they come back after preggo). I think Sam Long just needs to grind for a few more years with the swim before he's truly an threat. He's also imo very young and he may run into a situation where he's "burned his matches" by the time he's 30 type of scenario.

RVB has this quiet assassin quality about him imo. He doesn't necessarily need to hoot and holler, he'll just show up to a world class race and go top 5 and mic drop. Kanute is still stuck in this MTR / 70.3 racing and so until he finally commits full bore to IM we wont know what he's looking at.

I have no opinion on McElroy or Pearson going LC just yet, there's this weird dynamic sometimes for CRP athletes coming into ITU triathlon with no real multisport background. Especially on the women's side, IM racing for them is "for the birds".


In terms of an WTS stop in the US. Here's the issue. We have no "soul" for ITU. There isn't a city in the US that will fill 100k fans at an venue. That's what it takes for local govt and entitites to go all in on it. But again we as a whole have no clue wtf this "draft legal" racing is, we all think it's "cheating" cus we dont do it on our tri bike, blah blah blah.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

In fairness to Kanute and racing, he was 2nd at 70.3 Worlds in 2017 and 4th (to Frodo, Brownlee, and Gomez) with a 1:12 run in 2018. He has 70.3 wins at Texas and Oceanside and also won Escape from Alcatraz. That’s not shabby.

Granted he’s still trying to straddle the ITU/ long course balance, but I have to assume he’ll leave ITU after this cycle? I still maintain he’d be my 3rd choice after Pearson and McElroy for Tokyo, especially as a great option for the MTR. Also, I know the “d word” is controversial for the individual race, but he does swim and bike especially well...

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team