cdw wrote:
The modeling shows that you need an 8 percent grade for "light wheels" to outperform "aero wheels." Now, they certainly hit those grades on occasion, but for the other hundred miles of riding the aero wheels have been outperforming light.As with most people you get the math correct, but your tactics model is incorrect.
Most of bicycle racing is simply putting time in. It is only the rare periods - such as grades greater than 8%, that decide a bike race.
If the winning tactic is to attack on the 8% grade, then that is where you need the advantage. And light wheels provide that advantage.
I am not saying that light wheels are better on an 8% grade. There may be tactics that negate the tactic of attacking on the 8% grade. One such tactic might be to keep the speed up so everyone needs the benefit of aero wheels to stay with the leaders. Another tactic might be to let the guy with light wheels sit off the front and cook. The pack will catch him - if they want to.
The current level of analysis is not up to answering the questions.