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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [Jorgan] [ In reply to ]
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no, like great, good, average, bad.

idiot.

Jorgan wrote:
ericM40-44 wrote:
Or, a Category system.


Like how many kids you have, or hours you have available for training? ;0) Permutations are endless.

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [ericM40-44] [ In reply to ]
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ericM40-44 wrote:
for the love of god please: 18-21, 22-49, 50+ in 5yr increments, with really old AGs getting slots only at selected races.

Or, a Category system.

Eric, maybe we can get Slowman to lock up this thread now that you clarified the most sensible option. I might start the 5 year increments at 45 and not 50 but that's it.
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [chaparral] [ In reply to ]
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I don't think there is a system that will satisfy anyone. This is the problem. You can't please everyone. Ironman is at a crossroad. I don't blame them for trying different methods to satisfy the majority. But I think Ironman needs to communicate better with it's stakeholders instead of coming on here to update what's going on. A front page article on their website would go a long way......
Last edited by: trimac2: Oct 29, 15 7:51
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Ha Ha! Point taken, the horse is dead. I'll shut up now.
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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A handicap might be the fairest system.

Start with the AG male & female winners. Add x mins for every year above 40 (or whatever). Done. They have enough data to figure out what the number should be and how it should be configured and they can modify it as they go.

Problem is it's difficult to understand. I can get 3 slots for my AG means I need to come in ~3rd place. "My time minus winner's time + Age handicap" is hard to understand, let alone after you've just finished an IM.
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I'd be ok with that too, as a soon to be 45yo. I secretly hope I can compete with the youngsters at 49 so maybe that's why I chose the brackets I did.

Either way, it's an idea to take into our minds and play around with.

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Seems a little emotional Dev--not your typical style!

I for one am not saying anything about the WTC throwing us old people under the bus. I also don't think I'm entitled to anything. I think the WTC is fine company run by a principled and intelligent management team. Whatever they decide about how to run their business I'm sure it will be well considered.

There are a lot of things to consider and trade-offs to make. To the extent the WTC (Andrew) is willing to share what they are trying to solve for I'm interested in knowing the objectives and intent. I think it's an interesting management challenge and its in an area that I know a lot about and care quite a bit about. It may help me or not but I'm cool with it because it's not for me to decide. If I have something to add to the discussion I will but I think this crowd pretty much covers the waterfront on that.

Always interested in what Andrew/WTC are thinking, irrespective on which way the wind blows.

Randy Christofferson(http://www.rcmioga.blogspot.com

Insert Doubt. Erase Hope. Crush Dreams.
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Just to put some numbers to what the impact of increasing the number of qualifying races and decreasing the number of slots has had.

Using actual participation and slot allocation numbers from 15 races with 50 slots each.
60+ (M+F) = 3.16% participation and 13.47% of Kona slots. (Note Messick says 2% and 8%, but real numbers shows it's probably closer to 3% and 13% as a 15 race sample set would be pretty statistically significant)
M30-54 = 59.12% participation and 43.20% of Kona slots.

Now, rewind the clock 12 years to where these 15 races were just 5 races with 150 slots each. Same participants, just 5 races instead of 15 and 150 slots per race instead of 50.
60+ (M+F) = 3.16% participation and 5.87% of Kona slots
M30-54 = 59.12% participation and 55.47% of Kona slots

As you can see 60+ went from 5.87% of the pier to 13.47% of the pier while M30-54 went from 55.47% to 43.20%. And this is with keeping the participants identical and the only change being that slots are distributed at more races with fewer per race.

So, this is the real world impact that the proliferation of races has had on the distribution on the Kona pier. And, go to 40 slots per race and the trend only continues.
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Re: Kona Slots changed for 2017? [Thomas Gerlach] [ In reply to ]
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Thomas Gerlach wrote:
I haven't really given it a ton of thought. Maybe not every Ironman should be a KQ? Maybe various races should be designated as KQ for various AGs. Maybe you could police those AG sbetter as well ie. maybe you could have that AG go off first in their own wave. Maybe Placid is KQ for M40-44 and instead of 4 slots you have 40. Just some thoughts but IMO you can't keep having races with 30 slots with 6 spots available to 6 individuals while 2700 fight for the additional 24.

I agree, not every IM should be a KQ race. The % of people attempting to KQ is a fairly small % of the people signing up for IM so registration for the non-KQ races shouldn't really suffer much. My suggestion would be:

- minimum of 75 slots at each KQ race, preferably 100
- publish the list of KQ races well in advance, for example, if they were to implement this for Kona '17, post this list in the spring/summer of 2016 and include the KQ races for the next 2-3 years out
- the KQ races should rotate
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [GMAN19030] [ In reply to ]
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GMAN19030 wrote:
rcmioga wrote:
Andrew: Do you see the "issue" of 8% of the slots for 2% of the athletes as a "fairness" problem or a business problem, or something else entirely? In other words, what is the objective you are trying to optimize?


Not that I'm Andrew Messick but the answer is it's both a fairness problem and a business problem. "Older" athletes are WAY over represented at Kona. That's been pointed out fairly well in this thread. It's also a huge business problem because a person 65+ doesn't have the potential for repeat business like a 35 year old. That 65 year old probably will not be racing in the next decade. The 35 year old still has decades to go (potentially).

I think it was already mentioned... why cater to a group of people that represent 2% of your current business and almost 0% of your future business?

I could imagine that being the answer, but I'm really interested in where the WTC is at. I'm cool with however they decide to go. I think they are a fine company with a fine product that I've enjoyed using over the past 15 years....

Randy Christofferson(http://www.rcmioga.blogspot.com

Insert Doubt. Erase Hope. Crush Dreams.
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [ericM40-44] [ In reply to ]
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ericM40-44 wrote:
no, like great, good, average, bad.

idiot.

Jorgan wrote:
ericM40-44 wrote:
Or, a Category system.


Like how many kids you have, or hours you have available for training? ;0) Permutations are endless.

Can't figure if the last bit is in pink, a category.... or you've not had your first coffee of the day?

29 years and counting
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [timbasile] [ In reply to ]
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timbasile wrote:
Problem is it's difficult to understand. I can get 3 slots for my AG means I need to come in ~3rd place. "My time minus winner's time + Age handicap" is hard to understand, let alone after you've just finished an IM.

It's no different than when some of the age groups are too large and split into multiple waves or time trial starts. Just go as fast as you can. You'll find out where you stand when the results are posted.

Rowing uses a handicap system for the older age groups at the Head of the Charles (I don't know about other races but suspect it is at more than just HOCR).
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
xtremrun wrote:
timbasile wrote:
xtremrun wrote:
Why should we be thrown to the side because of our age and forced to race people 15 years younger to get a slot.. Ironman should invest a couple of million in expanding the pier in Kona, that way they can have 3000 entries like the rest of their races. Then the slots could go back to what they were. Seems like they could get the return on their investment in no time.


But the issue isn't that you're being "thrown to the side." Yes, on this one particular race someone 65+ will have to be competing for KQ slots against people 10 years younger. But that is just one race. In every other race, you're likely facing a dearth of competitors. And while being on the start line is in and of itself an accomplishment, your bar to KQ is against fewer competitors vs the younger and more represented age groups.

All this is doing is saying "If you're 65+ and want to KQ, there are many other races you can do. In fact, there's one around the corner next week." The likely effect is condense the KQ competition for these AGs, but only very slightly, where previously some of these AGs were given a KQ slot for <5 or 10 competitors. Now that may rise slightly. Not the end of the world.

ETA: even if IM adds 1000+ spots to the pier, the problem will show itself again when they expand again and we have the same issue in 5 or 10 years.


Once again my comment was based on the chance of this change becoming the norm for all races. People keep bring up 2% and 8%. I would bet the percentage of people over 55 racing for Kona slots as a percentage out number the younger age groups. the 30 thru 50 age group numbers are greatly inflated by the one and doners. I would bet if you eliminate the bucket listers from the age group Kona slots the percentages of people racing for slots would change drastically.


You are jumping waaaay ahead.

IN the last 5 years or so, WTC has doubled the number of races, and thereby doubled the slots available for 60+ while only marginally increasing slots for younger groups (as everyone said, the pier is limited, but that is stupid anyway cause they could expand transition onto the actual road in front....but that is another debate).

All Messick is saying for the 1 additional race added, he's only giving slots taken away from the young age groups in all the 50 slot races back to young age groups.

60+ LOST EXACTLY ZERO SLOTS WITH THE PROLIFERATION OF ALL THE 40 SLOT RACES. 30-49 LOST ALL THE SLOTS


So for all the 60+ crowd saying WTC is throwing you under the bus, they are not. They have been treating this group very favourably in the past 10 years at the expense of 30-49. At one race they are helping the 30-49.....please forgive them for actually doing something fair.

No wonder the younger generation think that baby boomers and the like have this sense of entitlement. You guys want your cake and eat it too. I personally am right in the middle, in an age group that has proportional slot allocation (M50-54) in nearly every race I have analysed so.

I really get how awesome it is that 60+ are on the start line. I have coached a few guys in this category and they are beyond amazing and as a racer with 30+ years of racing, I perhaps have the perspective that I'm playing around in a sport on bonus time, and the sport really should be about opportunities for young guys, not old guys. If anything triathlon (particularly IM) over caters to the older group.

Sorry for shouting, above, but I think some of us are getting tired of every 60+ person coming on here and saying WTC is throwing this group under the bus when this is totally not the case when you look at the big picture.
No point in yelling, the old grizzled grey set obviously have selective hearing aids
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [Jorgan] [ In reply to ]
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None of the three.

Eric Reid AeroFit | Instagram Portfolio
Aerodynamic Retul Bike Fitting

“You are experiencing the criminal coverup of a foreign backed fascist hostile takeover of a mafia shakedown of an authoritarian religious slow motion coup. Persuade people to vote for Democracy.”
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [ericM40-44] [ In reply to ]
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Wow, you're a barrell of civility.

29 years and counting
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [kny] [ In reply to ]
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kny wrote:
Using actual participation and slot allocation numbers from 15 races with 50 slots each.
60+ (M+F) = 3.16% participation and 13.47% of Kona slots. (Note Messick says 2% and 8%, but real numbers shows it's probably closer to 3% and 13% as a 15 race sample set would be pretty statistically significant)
M30-54 = 59.12% participation and 43.20% of Kona slots.

Is there a chance that the difference between your numbers and his has to do with published slots vs accepted slots? The verb he used was "occupy" which may suggest bikes on the pier.

Though though this wouldn't account for the difference between his 2% of participants would differ from your 3%... Finishers vs starters perhaps? Historical participation vs recent data set?
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [timbasile] [ In reply to ]
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timbasile wrote:
kny wrote:
Using actual participation and slot allocation numbers from 15 races with 50 slots each.
60+ (M+F) = 3.16% participation and 13.47% of Kona slots. (Note Messick says 2% and 8%, but real numbers shows it's probably closer to 3% and 13% as a 15 race sample set would be pretty statistically significant)
M30-54 = 59.12% participation and 43.20% of Kona slots.


Is there a chance that the difference between your numbers and his has to do with published slots vs accepted slots? The verb he used was "occupy" which may suggest bikes on the pier.

Though though this wouldn't account for the difference between his 2% of participants would differ from your 3%... Finishers vs starters perhaps? Historical participation vs recent data set?

My 13% number is based on Kona allocation at 15 races. This could be imprecise because it's only a 15 race sampleset and not the full qualifying set, but I'd be stunned if it were off by much.

His 8% number is "bikes on the pier", so this number potentially is diluted by pros, legacy, lottery, celebrity. Regardless, though, considering this is about allocating slots via qualifying, I think the appropriate comparison is the percentage of participants eligible to qualify (3%) to percentage of participants who do qualify (13%). So, if his number is diluted by other factors like pros, legacy, etc...., those should be pulled out from his analysis.
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [kny] [ In reply to ]
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I can't believe you, ST is no place for rational thought and actual statistics, take your coherent and thought out arguments elsewhere
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [kny] [ In reply to ]
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Agreed that it should be eligible vs allocated.

Though legacy might actually have a higher % of 60+ than for general participants...
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [kny] [ In reply to ]
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kny wrote:
Just to put some numbers to what the impact of increasing the number of qualifying races and decreasing the number of slots has had.

Using actual participation and slot allocation numbers from 15 races with 50 slots each.
60+ (M+F) = 3.16% participation and 13.47% of Kona slots. (Note Messick says 2% and 8%, but real numbers shows it's probably closer to 3% and 13% as a 15 race sample set would be pretty statistically significant)
M30-54 = 59.12% participation and 43.20% of Kona slots.

Now, rewind the clock 12 years to where these 15 races were just 5 races with 150 slots each. Same participants, just 5 races instead of 15 and 150 slots per race instead of 50.
60+ (M+F) = 3.16% participation and 5.87% of Kona slots
M30-54 = 59.12% participation and 55.47% of Kona slots

As you can see 60+ went from 5.87% of the pier to 13.47% of the pier while M30-54 went from 55.47% to 43.20%. And this is with keeping the participants identical and the only change being that slots are distributed at more races with fewer per race.

So, this is the real world impact that the proliferation of races has had on the distribution on the Kona pier. And, go to 40 slots per race and the trend only continues.

Crickets again it seems
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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devashish_paul wrote:
So for all the 60+ crowd saying WTC is throwing you under the bus, they are not. They have been treating this group very favourably in the past 10 years at the expense of 30-49. At one race they are helping the 30-49.....please forgive them for actually doing something fair.

Hey Dev. I don't think combining AGs (as has been suggested) is leveling the playing field. I think that move plays against the older AGs very strongly. Individual endurance sports do not allow older individuals to compete against younger ones. What if BQ qualifying time for all AGs was a hard cutoff? Theres a reason they've applied an algorithm to provide a systematic and gradual increases in BQ times for older AGs. Otherwise, if there was a hard cutoff then all of the "available" spots would be taken by younger individuals. Then we can have a discussion about % participation vs % qualifying for WCs except then it will be a larger disparity for older populations that is very close to 1% which is not very fair.

If you look at Kona this past year the first place male 45-49 would have placed 24th overall if he had to race against all M 30-49. At other races, the 2nd or 3rd place wouldn't even place top 20 racing against a combined AG. It gets even worse for a 75 y/o to race against a 50 y/o. That is absurd.

To shift towards fairness, I like the idea of making only certain races offer KQ spots. I do not, however, like the idea of combining AGs. And this is coming from a 31 y/o male who would benefit greatly from that.

(**the below is pure observation, nothing more)
I think its also interesting to note that everyone keeps talking about how Kona should be about the best of the best and that the younger AGs should have more representation because of their numbers. I did some basic math on KNY's post in the IMCHOO thread about wetsuit s non wetsuit.

The younger male AGs 30-49 had an average of 28% elect to keep their wetsuit and forego AG awards or spots. That 28% represented 276 racers.
The older male AGs 50-79 had an average of 24% elect to forego awards or spots and that % represented 139 racers.
For females it becomes 24% and 14% for younger and older respectively (30-49 & 50+)

I realize this is NON scientific at all and represents only ONE data point out of 41 worldwide races. But at face value, more "younger" AGers were not racing for Kona than "older" racers. Broken down farther, the "older" females and Females 18-29 had the smallest percentage opt out of awards. So for arguments sake, the demographic with the largest representative population also has the largest % that is not racing for Kona.

Again, those numbers are crudely punched for ONE race. It is not an argument, just an interesting observation from ONE race that I thought was pertinent to the discussion of fairness based on representation. I would happily change the observation if I had a longer break at work and could crunch more race numbers.

J
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [Jorgan] [ In reply to ]
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Jorgan wrote:
Wow, you're a barrell of civility.

don't take it personally, he's a d-bag to everybody, not just you.
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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [sidelined] [ In reply to ]
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sidelined wrote:
Precisely.
Not so much talent as a money reward. Always has been. But for god's sake why deny some 70 year old a spot.
If you must go after unwarranted spots - attack the AWA program. That is just a LOT of money reward.

It all comes down do that - what is unwarranted vs warranted. I am all for the 70 year old spot, but I think it is also unfortunate that maybe some people got into the sport young and never qualify, but if they would have started at 65 they would have - that is my crux of trying to pull for equality. It seems that each and every athlete that qualifies should deserve to be there. The standard has to evolve as the capacity of the Kona pier doesn't change and more and more people do Ironman each year. As it stands the demographic is changing not because athletes are of a certain age are performing better or worse, but simply as a result of more Ironmans with KQ spots.


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Re: Kona Slot distribution changed for 2017? [Yeeper] [ In reply to ]
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You are assuming that all those that didn't wear wetsuits at IMCHOO were trying to qualify for Kona, that's a pretty big assumption. Maybe they were just happy swimming without one?

On your analysis we should be reducing female slots since fewer of them are trying to qualify for Kona based on your IMCHOO stats.
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Re: Kona Slots changed for 2017? [stickboy1125] [ In reply to ]
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stickboy1125 wrote:
Thomas Gerlach wrote:
I haven't really given it a ton of thought. Maybe not every Ironman should be a KQ? Maybe various races should be designated as KQ for various AGs. Maybe you could police those AG sbetter as well ie. maybe you could have that AG go off first in their own wave. Maybe Placid is KQ for M40-44 and instead of 4 slots you have 40. Just some thoughts but IMO you can't keep having races with 30 slots with 6 spots available to 6 individuals while 2700 fight for the additional 24.


I agree, not every IM should be a KQ race. The % of people attempting to KQ is a fairly small % of the people signing up for IM so registration for the non-KQ races shouldn't really suffer much. My suggestion would be:

- minimum of 75 slots at each KQ race, preferably 100
- publish the list of KQ races well in advance, for example, if they were to implement this for Kona '17, post this list in the spring/summer of 2016 and include the KQ races for the next 2-3 years out
- the KQ races should rotate

Good idea but I see a problem with drafting: everyone with Kona-ambition goes to one of these races: a lot of equally good people concentrated in a few races.
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