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Kona Bike Count Predictions
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Since really everyone only cares about the bikes ;) Here is last years top 15 in the Kona Bike Count, you see any manufactures making any big gains or losses this year? I expect Cervelo to dominate once again, Canyone to continue to make some gains and may Specicalized to slide a little as I don't know if the Shiv has gone over as well as the thought it would.

Bikes
Cervelo – 487
Trek – 256
Specialized – 189
Felt – 185
Canyon – 130
Argon 18 – 118
Scott – 110
BMC – 108
QR – 97
Giant – 92
Ceepo – 70
Cannondale – 60
Ventum – 49
Dimond – 43
Cube – 29
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [ClarkWGriz] [ In reply to ]
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I think Canyon will make the most gains.


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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [ClarkWGriz] [ In reply to ]
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Beyond - 2
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [ClarkWGriz] [ In reply to ]
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ClarkWGriz wrote:
Since really everyone only cares about the bikes ;) Here is last years top 15 in the Kona Bike Count, you see any manufactures making any big gains or losses this year? I expect Cervelo to dominate once again, Canyone to continue to make some gains and may Specicalized to slide a little as I don't know if the Shiv has gone over as well as the thought it would.

Bikes
Cervelo – 487
Trek – 256
Specialized – 189
Felt – 185
Canyon – 130
Argon 18 – 118
Scott – 110
BMC – 108
QR – 97
Giant – 92
Ceepo – 70
Cannondale – 60
Ventum – 49
Dimond – 43
Cube – 29

was that intentional?

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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [ClarkWGriz] [ In reply to ]
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I would expect Canyon to leapfrog into second spot behind Cervelo this year. I predict Argon 18 and BMC will also move up in the rankings.

I think it would be very interesting to see a count of tire type ie clincher vs tubular vs tubeless. I am totally guessing that it would be something like 80% clincher, 10-15% tubeless, 5-10% tubular. Thoughts?
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [ClarkWGriz] [ In reply to ]
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Although not personally a fan, I think there could be a jump in Ventum. Mainly due to the obvious of advertising and IM giving bikes away but also Cody Beals shredded it up on one is going to catch some eyes.
Felt could also make a bit of a jump due to them and Cervelo being the main players in disc brake Tri bikes at the moment.
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [ClarkWGriz] [ In reply to ]
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I've seen a bunch of Ceepo bikes - think they'll be up a bit from last year. Also pretty sure I'll be one of the few athletes on a Blue bike.

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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [ClarkWGriz] [ In reply to ]
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I'm pretty amazed that the method of choice is still a bunch of people sitting down as people walk by into transition, building little fences on a legal pad, for whatever respective category they're assigned.

To make sure everyone is counted, and for accuracy purposes, pre-filling a piece of paper is probably not ideal, but I'd think by now there'd be a more efficient, electronic, way to do it?
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [Andres] [ In reply to ]
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I suppose WTC could do this count if they wanted to crunch the numbers off of the photos taken at bike drop-off.

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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [Andres] [ In reply to ]
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I’m more amazed that WTC doesn’t own this exercise and attempt to monetize the results (like seemingly everything else).
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [Seth] [ In reply to ]
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I would guess maybe 70% of pros are riding tubless?
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [justridingalong] [ In reply to ]
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justridingalong wrote:
I’m more amazed that WTC doesn’t own this exercise and attempt to monetize the results (like seemingly everything else).

At IM Chattanooga this year they had people with iPads as you checked your bike in entering info about everything you were using . Frame. Wheels. Pedals. Saddle. Running shoes. I think kit too. Somebody later said it was an optional survey but at the time it sure was presented as something that was just part of bike checkin.
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [jimatbeyond] [ In reply to ]
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [ClarkWGriz] [ In reply to ]
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Ventum actually dropped from last year. Kind of a surprise. Top four are as expected.
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [r-b] [ In reply to ]
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QR keeps moving up, Trek seems steady, Specialized is slipping, Cannondale has really fallen off.... tbh I almost feel like Cannondale isn't relevant to the tri community anymore. Kind of a shame because they seem to be damn innovative with the rest of their lineup.
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [GreenPlease] [ In reply to ]
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Anyone know the split on disc vs. rim brake? Also, what about electronic shifting? These were both reported last year. I'm very surprised as disc brakes has been the focal point of all the new bike launches that I haven't seen any chatter about it with the counts.
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [GreenPlease] [ In reply to ]
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I don't think Cannondale wants to be relevant in tri racing. While their website shows a "superslice" model w/ a MSRP of $10,500 they no longer sponsor any athletes that I know of and I don't think I have seen a new Cannondale tri bike at a race in years (other than the old Slice).
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [Multisportsdad] [ In reply to ]
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Multisportsdad wrote:
ClarkWGriz wrote:
Since really everyone only cares about the bikes ;) Here is last years top 15 in the Kona Bike Count, you see any manufactures making any big gains or losses this year? I expect Cervelo to dominate once again, Canyone to continue to make some gains and may Specicalized to slide a little as I don't know if the Shiv has gone over as well as the thought it would.

Bikes
Cervelo – 487
Trek – 256
Specialized – 189
Felt – 185
Canyon – 130
Argon 18 – 118
Scott – 110
BMC – 108
QR – 97
Giant – 92
Ceepo – 70
Cannondale – 60
Ventum – 49
Dimond – 43
Cube – 29


was that intentional?

If last year's number for Giant includes Liv then they went up by 24 bikes. That's a healthy 20% increase. If last year's number doesn't include Liv then the 32 Liv bikes that showed up this year would indicate a huge win for Giant in the Women's specific sector. Everyone else other than QR and Canyon are meh...

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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [Andres] [ In reply to ]
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I was surprised to see ST darlings Tririg and Premiere with only 2 bikes each - and one of the Tririg Omnis being sponsored pro Matt Russell.

Absolutely not a dig or criticism of either company or their bikes, just surprised that brands like Squad, Ancor, Pardus, and Sopta (never heard of any of them) each had just as many bikes (2) in the field.

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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [refthimos] [ In reply to ]
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refthimos wrote:
I was surprised to see ST darlings Tririg and Premiere with only 2 bikes each - and one of the Tririg Omnis being sponsored pro Matt Russell.

Absolutely not a dig or criticism of either company or their bikes, just surprised that brands like Squad, Ancor, Pardus, and Sopta (never heard of any of them) each had just as many bikes (2) in the field.


It appears we have the same thoughts on that...
Last edited by: Andres: Oct 14, 19 12:53
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [Andres] [ In reply to ]
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It appears we have the same thoughts on that... //

But what do you know, you think it has only been going on for a decade and a half...(-;

And this gem your wrote in your loser category, where exactly is a company going to pick up bikes if not the ones below them, or the ones above??

"Percentage-wise, the 38% seems a bit misleading; it's a big number, but it appears they're picking up numbers from the declining brands below them vs. the ones above them on the list."

For a one year bump, while just barley rolling out here in the US, seems pretty good to me, but what do I know? I remember over a decade and a half when trek had twice as many bikes as the next brand(about what Cervelo has now in the 400's), and Cervelo was not even there yet!!!


I do agree that it would seem like Premiere would have had more bikes, must be selling to the Kona hopefuls... (-;
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [monty] [ In reply to ]
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I think we all know the count has been going on for quite a bit longer, just Cervelo being at the top has been 15 years or so which is what it say, no?

As for my point on the bikes being picked up by Canyon, I think they're taking away from the Cannondales of the world, not from Cervelos of the world. Based on their product, pricing, exposure, I would be less surprised if they were #2 on that list than where they are now.

The other important thing is that this is just one race. If this were done at IM Frankfurt or Roth, it may very well be a lot different. But this is the one everyone pays attention to.
Last edited by: Andres: Oct 14, 19 13:22
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [Andres] [ In reply to ]
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As I recall, it took Cervelo 6 or 7 years to approach the top of the count, slowly moving up each year after coming top 10. Not sure why you would think Canyon would all of a sudden be #2 in such a mature market, it just has never worked that way. And of course other races have different counts around the world, think a few have even been done. But that is why this one is kind of fun to look at, we were doing it over 30 years ago, and now there is a very long history of what has happened. You can glean trends up and down, and history really does repeat itself if you look closely.

I remember when Trek had the lions share for so many years, could not imagine any knocking them off, let alone doing what they did every year and double 2nd place. I kind of see Canyon going that same direction(taking bikes from them and Cervelo, as well as the bottom folks), only like I said, it seems the market is more mature than the old days, so grabbing market share will get tougher and tougher, but 38% year over year growth is huge once you are in the middle of the pack.

But I'm out of the bike business these days, and the model has changed completely how bikes are made and marketed. But I have a sneaking suspicion that Canyon is using the right model, but who knows, things change a lot more quickly than in the past now too...
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [refthimos] [ In reply to ]
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refthimos wrote:
I was surprised to see ST darlings Tririg and Premiere with only 2 bikes each - and one of the Tririg Omnis being sponsored pro Matt Russell.

Absolutely not a dig or criticism of either company or their bikes, just surprised that brands like Squad, Ancor, Pardus, and Sopta (never heard of any of them) each had just as many bikes (2) in the field.

The Omni is a very under appreciated bike IMO. The β€œtop tube” water bottle mount is aero neutral for a round bottle as far as I can tell with field testing which is a huge win IMO.
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Re: Kona Bike Count Predictions [monty] [ In reply to ]
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monty wrote:
Not sure why you would think Canyon would all of a sudden be #2 in such a mature market, it just has never worked that way.

Yeah, who knows... maybe I was overly optimistic about what they could do this year? I guess the only thing that matters is whether they're happy with the growth, and I suspect you can't be upset when you add 39 bikes to the count even if it wasn't what you expected.

Also, to clarify, I didn't expect them to be in 2nd, I just would have been less surprised than to see them where they were. I think we might see a complete re-shuffling once more and more people switch over to disc-brake bikes.

Lastly, in 2016 Cervelo added 55 bikes to their 522 total from the year prior. Not to compare, but maybe seeing a big jump like that in recent years influenced my expectations.
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