If you look what he has done in Zurich and Kona, he went very conservative (for him) on the bike. So even if the first part of the bike course is hilly (not that much in fact, they have changed the course since the first edition) and technical toward the end, I would bet that he will race smart, not push hard on the bike to save his legs and run a good marathon. That should be enough for him to qualify. For general classification Zamora, Loy, LeFloch, Faure, Rutger Beke and Jozsef Major are supposed to run, so I would guess that puts him already in 7th if everybody has a decent race. My 2 €c. I will ask him his prediction when he will pass me on the bike (assuming he hasn't made big progresses in swimming;-).

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Francois-Xavier Li @FrancoisLi
"We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing." George Bernard Shaw
http://www.swimrunfrance.fr
http://www.worldofswimrun.com

Enjoy you race too! My folks used to live there...in my opinion, it's the best cycling region in the world.