Well, okay, if you want a prediction:

Give it's my first triathlon in over five years I expect quite a few pre-race jitters/freakouts. I'll be too tentative on the bike, especially on the descents, given that I don't have a lot of miles on my new bike and I don't really like the base bar I chose. I'll run hard but the hills will hurt. I'll be happy at the finish.

Oh, wait, we're not talking about mid-pack 40 year olds? Oh...

Sanders for the win. LB puts in a great showing.

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Any run that doesn't include pooping in someone's front yard is a win.

My two predictions...... war and carnage :-)

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David T-D
http://www.tilburydavis.com

Von Berg to win m60-64.
AB to win pro, but Kienle and Sanders can win too. McMahon and Tim Don have won in the past, so.......
It will be fun.
Holly is really tough, but would like to see her get challenged. Miles 7-9 of that run can separate who is strong on the day. Heather or Ellie are good guesses!

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Team Zoot So Cal

I predict Alistar to GET HUMBLED!

Especially on the bike forcing him to spend a ton of time of wind tunnel..

1) Sanders
2)Don or Keinle
Then Brownlee

I think you'd be surprised how much time he spends in the wind over here in Yorkshire ;)

I think AB takes it on the run ahead of Keinle then Sanders

Lol have you seen pics of his position?

Sanders 3 min down after the swim.

Sanders catches Brownlee on the bike and gets to T2 2 minutes faster.

Brownlee runs him down with a 1:09 and beats Sanders in a sprint finish.

Brownlee and Kanute build gap on swim.

Cam Wurf bridges early on the bike and a solid lead group develops.

Sanders catches Kienle on bike and 2 bridge to the leaders.

5-7 guys all together into T2.

Current forecast is not calling for crazy heat, so.... Brownlee runs to the win, 22 second gap ahead of Sanders.

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Alex Arman

Strava

You beat me to it. I was going to predict lots of thrashing in the water, whining going up Snow Canyon and quite possibly vomit at mile 9 of the run. Exciting sprint finish of course.

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2017 races: St. George 70.3 May 6 | Madison 70.3 June 11 | IM Zurich July 30 | Chicago Marathon October 8

See you there!!!

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Any run that doesn't include pooping in someone's front yard is a win.

Hard to see past Sanders / Brownlee / Kienle podium but as for what order they'll be in...

AB always pushed as hard as possible on the bike in ITU to tire out the good runners. Judging by his challenge race it looks like he may employ a similar tactic at 70.3 distance.
Just curious but do you guys think that Kienle and Sanders are much stronger bikers than Brownlee such that they can catch him for 3 mins when he is going full tilt?
I'm just curious as AB was probably the strongest cyclist in ITU. Apart maybe from that kiwi pro cyclist who used to drag the second pack up to the AB group in ITU.

AB appeared a stronger cyclist than Frodo and Frodo seems to be able to match Kienle on the bike at the longer stuff.

So are Kienle and Sanders that much stronger than AB that they will be able to reel him in? Not arguing, just curious.

This is just my thinking....

In ITU, he's basically in a break away in a cycling race. That is VO2 max effort after VO2 max effort. This race is about holding a lower percent power for a much longer amount of time. I'm not sure how much experience he has at that type of effort then running a half after it. Sanders & Kienle have loads of experience and know how badly they can suffer on the bike and still run well. I bet Brownlee thinks as long as he can keep within a couple minutes of the lead he will run them down. And I think he'll be right. He's not running against Mola or Murray here. So he will not obliterate himself on the bike to stay ahead or even stay with the leader.

Wow, I'm really surprised so many people think he'll be that far behind on the bike. I think he'll put in a bloody strong show on two wheels, at least getting very close to keinle and sanders.

I don't think he'll have a bad bike, but I think that Sanders (and possibly Kienle) will put in massive efforts to try and drop him to get a head start on the run because they know they can't out run him.

I have recently developed an excel model with a Monte Carlo Simulation that predicts long course triathlons. After plugging the information in, I have the following prediction.

If the temps are under 81(current projected weather forecast), I have Sanders coming out of the water behind Kienle with a 75 second deficit. He catches up to Kienle within the first 10 miles and they catch the front pack by mile 20. Brownlee and Tim Don hang on as the Colonel/German Express roll through forming a 4 man reckon crew with the possibility of a couple other riders. They stay together until mile 45 when Sanders realizes his run volume has dropped in order to increase his swim ability, and drops the first Canadian nuke ever and gains a 2 min advantage heading into T2.

Also of note, Kienle has only communicated to Sanders in the German language for the entire bike ride as a way to get back to the Sanders camp for refusing to call Jan anything besides the Japanese currency (yen). This has agitated Sanders but he is a good sport and has taken it in stride.

Once on the run course, the time gaps stay relatively the same for the first 10K. As predicted, Sanders begins to feel the affects of the run volume and Brownlee starts to take 15 seconds a mile from him. Keep in mind Browlnee is laying down 5:15's at this point. Eventually, Brownlee catches Sanders at the mile 11.5 mile mark and ends up coming in first by less than a min. The final results are brownlee, sanders, don, and kienle.

Kienle is pleased that he is still not the first German to be accused of being in A-form in the month of May, and Sanders is encouraged by where his swim is still trending knowing that his top run form will come back later this summer. Once back in Canada, Sanders places a pic of Brownlee next to Jan and crowie in his training room.

As of note to the model. If the temp moves up from a high of 81, these predictions change dramatically. This is also the inaugural race for the excel model, so obviously it may need to be tinkered with moving forward.

Cheers

The difference between first and third is massive... so when AB comes in 3rd, don't think for one second he was close to winning.

With that said, it'll be Sanders vs. Kienle and I know from interviews that this race is one that really hangs over Sebi's head... he wants to win STG once in his career... and he wants it REALLY BAD. So, all my money is on him.

Plus, he skipped every major "opening" race of the year to do Cannes, which might be best since it's an odd distance (saves the legs from pounding). I think he's walking into this race as if its a world championship and he's going to give it everything. Sanders better be ready.

I just hope to see them duking it out down the final stretch on my way out onto the run.

Gotcha. Makes sense.

Doesn't sound like St George will be hot but I will be interested to see how AB handles heat at the longer stuff.
I raced IM Frankfurt in 2015 and I COULD _ NOT _BELIEVE how Frodo broke the course record in that heat. And I'm told Kona gets hotter than Frankfurt was. How the hell these folks can go so fast in crazy heat is just beyond me.

Does anyone know if St George be live streamed? It really should be.

AB puts 3 mins on Sanders and Kienle on the swim (Sanders might be another minute back) and holds that gap on the bike, then takes another 2 mins on the run and wins by 5. Don closer out the swim but loses time on the bike.

Forget the Pros

Who is going to win the all important 45-49 men's AG?

AB is in the front pack swim, into the lead on the bike and is never caught.

Agree, dont think AB will giving up a 2-3 min advantage after the swim. They might be closer to him in T2, but that wont cut it. AB, sanders, kienle.

Also predicting no live coverage and we can all read about it after the fact... great way to ruin interest in the sport..

Will be interesting to see if all-out desire to beat Brownlee means they both absolutely smash themselves on the bike to catch up.

Hey, there are other important AGs as well! :)

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Alex Arman

Strava