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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [Tom_Hughes] [ In reply to ]
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Tom_Hughes wrote:
Agreed, based on what I know of AB, his numbers and his biking ability I think he'll outride sanders! Sorry slow twitch!

Will there be live video?

LIonel's wife (or maybe still fiance) usually uses Periscope to show how he's doing. Gives a little live video!

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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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Ali looks like he's far too busy sight seeing (acording to his Twitter) to attend press calls...
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [Jackets] [ In reply to ]
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Jackets wrote:
Ali looks like he's far too busy sight seeing (acording to his Twitter) to attend press calls...
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Yeah, but I have to look at it as part and parcel of being a professional in the sport i.e. part of the whole event.

Hugh

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [jakesdk] [ In reply to ]
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Tom_Hughes wrote:
That's pretty rubbish. Ironman should be ashamed of their coverage so far thus year
Any other years to be proud of?//

I would say that the past 5 or so years of Kona have been good, and as I recall all the races Lance did were of the same quality. Not production, but very watchable. I was hoping they would at least get this race back to the Lance level, but looks like it will be businesses usual at WTC. They can do it, but choose not to for whatever reason. Hell, maybe they think they are giving great coverage with their lame tracker and updates.


Good thing is that we here watching will pool all available information, and then have our own little roundtable discussion while it is going on live. Still the best game in town and all Dan has to do is just not have his server go down!!
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [T3_Beer] [ In reply to ]
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T3_Beer wrote:
I was at the pro panel discussion today. They asked Kienle why he chose to race St George and he said "I saw the people who were competing and wanted to watch the race, but since there is no live-stream I have to come to the race in person." Everyone was laughing after that comment.

For that comment alone, he deserves to win!!! And what's so cool about it is the rest of us could sign up for that "plan" and be sitting in our corral while the pros head out and then when we come back from the bike they are finishing the run....Kienle gets to watch the entire event front seat, well, until he takes the lead at which point he does not get to watch anymore
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [The GMAN] [ In reply to ]
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The GMAN wrote:
bruno82 wrote:
Sanders 3-4min down after swim, bikes 8min into AB then looses 2-3min on the run still wins by 1-3min
Holly wins easily


Do you really think Lionel outbikes Alistair by 8 minutes over 56 miles. That's not happening barring something totally unexpected.

It's possible. 3 minutes slower due to being not as aero in the TT position (yet) as Sanders, plus a 5 minute drafting penalty for not being experienced enough in that aspect either.

----------------------------------------------------------
Zen and the Art of Triathlon. Strava Workout Log
Interviews with Chris McCormack, Helle Frederikson, Angela Naeth, and many more.
http://www.zentriathlon.com
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [Sloggy] [ In reply to ]
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Here's a nice recap of the pro panel with video:

http://triathlonmagazine.ca/...nman-70-3-st-george/
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [The GMAN] [ In reply to ]
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The GMAN wrote:
bruno82 wrote:
Sanders 3-4min down after swim, bikes 8min into AB then looses 2-3min on the run still wins by 1-3min
Holly wins easily


Do you really think Lionel outbikes Alistair by 8 minutes over 56 miles. That's not happening barring something totally unexpected.
He can if he shaves that moustache :)


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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [Apollo71] [ In reply to ]
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Apollo71 wrote:
The GMAN wrote:
bruno82 wrote:
Sanders 3-4min down after swim, bikes 8min into AB then looses 2-3min on the run still wins by 1-3min
Holly wins easily


Do you really think Lionel outbikes Alistair by 8 minutes over 56 miles. That's not happening barring something totally unexpected.
He can if he shaves that moustache :)


For those interested in such things - AB has posted an image of his bike setup for tomorrow to Instagram.
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [ZenTriBrett] [ In reply to ]
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ZenTriBrett wrote:
The GMAN wrote:
bruno82 wrote:
Sanders 3-4min down after swim, bikes 8min into AB then looses 2-3min on the run still wins by 1-3min
Holly wins easily


Do you really think Lionel outbikes Alistair by 8 minutes over 56 miles. That's not happening barring something totally unexpected.


It's possible. 3 minutes slower due to being not as aero in the TT position (yet) as Sanders, plus a 5 minute drafting penalty for not being experienced enough in that aspect either.

I think a drafting penalty falls under the 'unexpected' category.

I think many of you (not you specifically but the royal you) don't realize just how strong and tactical Brownlee is on the bike. There's a lot of the generalizations that Alistair drafts his way to T2 and hammers people on the run but his racing tactics have been to more or less lead the race from start to finish and beat people into near submission on the bike and finish them off on the run. There's literally only a handful of people that can hang with him on the ITU circuit on a regular basis when such a tactic is employed.

Now tactics will certainly be different for 70.3 and 140.6 racing but Lionel isn't anywhere near as tactically smart as Brownlee, partly because his swim (despite getting better) is such a weakness. I worry that Lionel will come out of the water with such a deficit that he will need to roast himself early in the bike to try to bridge the gap. He can work with Kienle to bridge the gap to the lead group that will include Brownlee. To do that Lionel must first bridge the gap to Kienle. I think the Kienle/Sanders train can catch the Brownlee train but at what expense. Does Alistair wilt later on the run due to inexperience? We shall see.

The Ironman world will certainly be on notice that there's a new sheriff in town if Alistair wins this in a somewhat convincing fashion with this field.

I think inexperience is going to be the only chink in Brownlee's armor right now but it's not like he hasn't swum 1.2 or biked 56 or ran 13.1 before. He just might not know when to burn his matches.

Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [splashrunner] [ In reply to ]
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splashrunner wrote:
Apollo71 wrote:
The GMAN wrote:
bruno82 wrote:
Sanders 3-4min down after swim, bikes 8min into AB then looses 2-3min on the run still wins by 1-3min
Holly wins easily


Do you really think Lionel outbikes Alistair by 8 minutes over 56 miles. That's not happening barring something totally unexpected.


He can if he shaves that moustache :)



For those interested in such things - AB has posted an image of his bike setup for tomorrow to Instagram.

Pretty slammed, pretty aggressive. So much for positional concerns that he might ride too relaxed a position.

Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [natethomas] [ In reply to ]
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i got the Hoff for the win

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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [The GMAN] [ In reply to ]
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But not under the "totally unexpected" category like you said earlier. A guy coming from drafting to non-drafting getting a drafting penalty wouldn't surprise me at all.

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Zen and the Art of Triathlon. Strava Workout Log
Interviews with Chris McCormack, Helle Frederikson, Angela Naeth, and many more.
http://www.zentriathlon.com
Last edited by: ZenTriBrett: May 5, 17 12:02
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [ZenTriBrett] [ In reply to ]
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Well, he just did a 70.3 distance race a few weeks ago, so he will have that race under his belt for the non drafting rules experience. I doubt he will make such a mistake, he has proven time and again that he is a very smart guy in the heat of a race.



"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]
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That course was 4 laps right? that may have allowed him some practice in avoiding the slingshot/blocking penatlies. Drafting not so much since no one could hang...

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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]
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CPT Chaos wrote:
Well, he just did a 70.3 distance race a few weeks ago, so he will have that race under his belt for the non drafting rules experience. I doubt he will make such a mistake, he has proven time and again that he is a very smart guy in the heat of a race.

Sure... "doubt". But not, "No way in hell. Wow, that was totally unexpected!" If he did get a drafting penalty, everybody would be saying, "Yeah, well he did just come from draft legal. I'm not that surprised."

Totally unexpected would be more like something that rarely or ever happens. Like handlebars snapping in two. Frame cracks in half. Dog runs out and makes him crash. Drafting happens so often, they've got a standard penalty for it because it's not unexpected at all.

Again, the fact that they have a standard penalty time for it is proof that it is expected and happens plenty.

And Alistair isn't a penalty-proof triathlon wizard. He got a time penalty in the 2012 Olympics for dismounting his bike too soon.

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Zen and the Art of Triathlon. Strava Workout Log
Interviews with Chris McCormack, Helle Frederikson, Angela Naeth, and many more.
http://www.zentriathlon.com
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]
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CPT Chaos wrote:
Well, he just did a 70.3 distance race a few weeks ago, so he will have that race under his belt for the non drafting rules experience. I doubt he will make such a mistake, he has proven time and again that he is a very smart guy in the heat of a race.

Considering he was out in front on the bike basically from the get go at Gran Canaria I'd say he didn't get any practice in not drafting there;) He does have some solid experience drafting the motos in ITU races. Hopefully they won't sit too close tomorrow.

Hugh

Genetics load the gun, lifestyle pulls the trigger.
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [The GMAN] [ In reply to ]
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The GMAN wrote:
ZenTriBrett wrote:
The GMAN wrote:
bruno82 wrote:
Sanders 3-4min down after swim, bikes 8min into AB then looses 2-3min on the run still wins by 1-3min
Holly wins easily


Do you really think Lionel outbikes Alistair by 8 minutes over 56 miles. That's not happening barring something totally unexpected.


It's possible. 3 minutes slower due to being not as aero in the TT position (yet) as Sanders, plus a 5 minute drafting penalty for not being experienced enough in that aspect either.


I think a drafting penalty falls under the 'unexpected' category.

I think many of you (not you specifically but the royal you) don't realize just how strong and tactical Brownlee is on the bike. There's a lot of the generalizations that Alistair drafts his way to T2 and hammers people on the run but his racing tactics have been to more or less lead the race from start to finish and beat people into near submission on the bike and finish them off on the run. There's literally only a handful of people that can hang with him on the ITU circuit on a regular basis when such a tactic is employed.

Now tactics will certainly be different for 70.3 and 140.6 racing but Lionel isn't anywhere near as tactically smart as Brownlee, partly because his swim (despite getting better) is such a weakness. I worry that Lionel will come out of the water with such a deficit that he will need to roast himself early in the bike to try to bridge the gap. He can work with Kienle to bridge the gap to the lead group that will include Brownlee. To do that Lionel must first bridge the gap to Kienle. I think the Kienle/Sanders train can catch the Brownlee train but at what expense. Does Alistair wilt later on the run due to inexperience? We shall see.

The Ironman world will certainly be on notice that there's a new sheriff in town if Alistair wins this in a somewhat convincing fashion with this field.

I think inexperience is going to be the only chink in Brownlee's armor right now but it's not like he hasn't swum 1.2 or biked 56 or ran 13.1 before. He just might not know when to burn his matches.

I think the chink in Brownlee's armor is that he hasn't the bike or run strength over this distance. Training with a fancy bike is all good and well, but he hasn't had a competitive race at this distance. The Gran Canaria race was his first hit out at the distance, and while nobody would deny he won well, he didn't have the competitive field he faces in St. George. He's known for trying to push the bike, but when he's not at the front his tactic is to keep up with the front riders. When he gets past by Kinele, Sanders, et al., he will try to keep with them. Knowing the St. George course, the hills will suck the life from the legs of all competitors, especially those who aren't used to riding hard in non-drafting races. Remember he's only a recent convert to riding TT style which uses slightly different leg muscle configurations than road style, so I suspect he hasn't properly adapted yet. This coupled with the hilly run course, I feel that Brownlee will learn a lot about his racing pedigree at this point in his long course career. Sanders, Kinele, Don, McMahon, are seasoned campaigners at this distance, and have developed the strength required to perform over the distance. St. George is a strength race, look at past winners in both division and you'll see the same pedigree in all of them.
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [ZenTriBrett] [ In reply to ]
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Getting caught for drafting isn't going to a problem if he's off the front on his own. ;-)

Having watched Ali race the ITU circuit and seen him yelling at people to do work, I just can't see him settling into a pace line.

What I have enjoyed most about watching Ali is his flat out, start to finish, last man standing style of racing. And then questioning the tactics of anyone that hides in the front bike pack not doing any work. It was a brutal but refreshing style of racing which I'm desperately hoping Ali brings to long distance racing.

tbh if Ali gets caught on the bike and settles into a front pack and waits for the run I will be quite disappointed. I want to see him absolutely hammer the bike, get off and hammer the run.
Last edited by: Barlow: May 5, 17 13:28
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [ZenTriBrett] [ In reply to ]
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That was Jonny B in 2012, AB has never got a penalty that I can recall.



"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
Sponsors: SciCon | | Every Man Jack
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [sciguy] [ In reply to ]
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sciguy wrote:
Jackets wrote:
Ali looks like he's far too busy sight seeing (acording to his Twitter) to attend press calls...
In Reply To:


Yeah, but I have to look at it as part and parcel of being a professional in the sport i.e. part of the whole event.

Hugh

Why would he show up? He's already generated tremendous interest in this race and publicity for Ironman, Inc. If I'm a pro of his stature there's no way I'd show up to a press conference unless they made it worth my while. Maybe there's a lesson here for other Ironman pros...
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [vo3 max] [ In reply to ]
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https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C_Fo2eNV0AAnkPG.jpg


Brownlee and Kienle have a chinwag
Last edited by: messien: May 5, 17 14:32
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [kennykill] [ In reply to ]
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You've gone a bit Jon Snow there mate.
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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]
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Yep, JB with the penalty.

It will be very difficult for Alistair to draft when he's all alone out front....Well, there is the lead moto but that's "legal"

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Re: Ironman 70.3 St. George prediction Thread [ZenTriBrett] [ In reply to ]
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ZenTriBrett wrote:
But not under the "totally unexpected" category like you said earlier. A guy coming from drafting to non-drafting getting a drafting penalty wouldn't surprise me at all.


If he did, I'd file a grievance if I were him. It should really be up to the motorbike to stay the appropriate distance away...







[jokes]

eta: too slow

Dan Mayberry
Amateur a lot of things, professional a few things.
Last edited by: drm437: May 5, 17 14:49
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