Frodo 100%

+1

When he's healthy, he can swim/bike/run with the best.

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For the pro males its basically no drafting.

But yeah frodo easy.

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Summed up by in 2018 on possible one of the most conditions friendly years of Kona, the swim course record, bike course record and course record (under 8 hours for the first time ever) were all broken. In 2019 knowing from personal experience it was certainly not a conditions friendly year and the only record to be broken was the course record...

Why wouldn't you want drafting on the swim and run?

To get a true reflection of the best overall athlete.

The small amount of drafting occurring is not giving Jan 15 minutes. It is asinine to even suggest this. Jan also led his pack 75% of the time esp after turnaround and Wurf was also not leading his pack 100% of the time. Take out the swim which gives Jan a 5 min advantage and have them TT the bike and run and Jan still wins comfortably.

Jan didn’t lead on the bike 75% of the time. He did lead plenty but only really led the last portion of ride taking advantage of Brownlee’s flat (at least that is what it looked like and I wonder how the race would have played out if Brownlee didn’t blaze through his pack of matches playing catch-up leading to his poor run). But for an individual time trial, yes I do believe Cam would put 15 min on Jan for the bike in a 112 mile difficult Kona ride. I don’t think Jan would run the same after a solo swim and bike. I do believe Cam’s run split wouldn’t be nearly as effected after a solo swim and ride. I think Jan’s bike split would be at least 5 min slower at minimum and his run would be more fatigued = 5-10 min slower. Also just his state of mind wouldn’t be the same without the ‘high’ of being in the lead with camera’s constantly on him.

The 20 meter draft is real. And yes, there are small sling shots and mental breaks you get from pack riding. That is why Kona is such a complicated race for everyone. I think everyone can agree LS is always going to be in contention ftw at any 70.3. But didn’t he get smoked at the 70.3 world championship in Australia because he wasn’t in the bike train coming out of the water? Didn’t he kind of protest after that and not race Ironman for a bit until the draft zone was extended?

for the pro males it's *all* drafting.

But still, Frodo.

E

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As a complete amateur, can somebody help me understand how race dynamics work on the swim course?

Given how big the draft advantage is on the swim, why would anybody decide to lead? Of course somebody has got to lead, since if every athlete doesn't want to lead, no one swims at all, but I'm wondering why some athletes burn the extra energy to be at the front. What's the rationale there?

a) sponsors

b) it's just so easy to them that it doesn't matter if they lead

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I’m not sure what that means? You don’t want strategy and planning to play any part in an athletic contest? That’s a fun bar-room (or forum) hypothetical, but not how I want to watch or participate in athletic competition.

Unlike others, I’ll play along and just answer the question. Frodo.

Can’t you just play along with a fun hypothetical??? It’s made up, for fun. He isn’t pontificating on changing the rules of the sport. Just a random forum question on a winter wknd.

Like hell it's no drafting. Even those who race legally still get a draft benefit.

Yeah this ones easy. Frodo

A more challenging one might be how the race would play if it were draft legal. I still think Frodo, but maybe not so clear cut. AB and JG would be interesting.

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Frodo 100%. He was mostly in the lead anyway. If anything the gap would be even bigger to the 2nd I'd assume. He's the GOAT

Haha that would be an interesting race. In an Ironman, especially a course such as Kona, anyone behind coming solo out of the water would probably have to be ‘yanked’ - as they would do in pro bike race. A solo rider out of the water chasing a fast moving peloton is near impossible without a moto draft or domestiques pacing hard back up.

I’d have Jan or Patrick ftw in that case on a course such as Kona. For a draft legal Kona 70.3, it would be very interesting between Jan, AB, JG, and Gustav Iden. I’d have Lionel in there but he’d miss out after the swim and burn too many matches as the second pack would expect Cam, Sebi, and Lionel to take care of the ‘chase’ duties.

The triathlon order of events just happen to be in ascending order of drafting effectiveness. Swim, great draft benefit. 20 meter bike, some draft benefit. Run, no draft benefit.

Reverse the order of events in a triathlon and tell me who wins. I don't know, but I'd watch.

People I think are forgetting that Jan didn’t win on the run, he broke the OA course record on the run because he felt like it.

He made a move in the last hour of the bike, distanced everyone relevant by 1:30 or so.

Maurice

Given how big the draft advantage is on the swim, why would anybody decide to lead? //

IT is simple really, to make the race hard for the others. Why would you not use your top swim to put pressure on the others, that is the question. If there is no pressure, then there is no breakaway, and none of the other 5 groups or so where someone else is also pulling. It also disincentivized those goops to hammer, and the break gets even more of an advantage. It just makes sense for the top few to hammer the swim, it puts everyone that cannot keep up on their back feet, and now they have to play a catch up strategy for the entire race..


It is quite similar to ITU racing and what the Killer B's did to that race dynamic. You could ask why do they hammer the swim and especially the bike, if they are already the fastest runners? Same answer, to put pressure on the field, take them out of their comfort zones, and make it a run race against just a few, rather than the entire field. On any given day, there is always someone who could come from now where if given an easy bike and T2 start with a huge bunch. Swimming hard eliminates a lot of that possibility..

Dave Scott in his late 80’s form epitomized the spirit of what you describe. The man would only show up to race if he felt that he was in shape to push himself to his best performance in all 3 sports and on race day pushed each segment to his personal best potential without regard to legal draft off of others. He probably utilized draft off of media vehicles, but against his fellow competitors he tried to drop the majority of pros during the swim, drop most of the rest during the bike and pull away from the rest during the run. That type of racing is less common now in large part to the deeper competitive fields and tactical races but it would be great to see a modern athlete race it like Dave Scott did back in the day.

If we’re talking about the swim again, cameras weren’t on Wurf’s group much but I’d bet a lot of money he got the same or more drafting benefits than Jan in the swim and as a weaker swimmer benefits more relatively regardless.

Wurf already basically TTed so his bike split would be slower than it was on race day if anything (still pack rode behind guys for parts) and also a slower run. Jan would have 15 min minimum to work with, so even 5-10 min slower in a bike TT at same Wattage and he wins by 5-10 with the same 2:42 run split.

IMO Jan’s run saves more time over Wurf’s bike than vice versa.

Again I think draft legal would be more interesting as anyone who can catch the lead pack can then contend on the run.

without regard to legal draft off of others.//

Dave almost always drafted off someone in the swim, and hardly ever led it himself, except for 1980 on the other island..