If it's a whole year of races, it may be far more damaging to the brand than realized. If it's races in the first half then I see IM being able to write off some good will and defer/transfer participants.

If they go all of 2021 with no racing they would have to decide:

Keep the money and run and piss off a ton of people or keep deferring/transferring.

The answer lies outside of IM's control. They have always systemically gone to places and pushed out smaller races, but if smaller races get traction (Challenge for instance) by being able to run due to less entrants while 2k IM participants sit at home, people might start to shop their 70.3 and 140.6 needs.

IM is going to feel one hell of a cash flow problem if they have to defer races again. It’s inevitable that many races will need to be postponed or canceled again this year, especially races held during the first half to first 2/3rds of the year. The majority of those races probably collected all the entry fees in 2019. A race deferred again to 2022 will basically not have registration revenue collected for three years. Fee collected for 2020 race after 2019 race, 2020 race canceled and deferments push to 2021, 2021 race canceled and deferments push to 2022, registration fees collected again after 2022 race for the 2023 race.

That’s a house of cards that might be very hard for IM to navigate around.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Oceanside cancellation / deferral likely announced soon so we should know how they intend to proceed shortly

My guess is they postpone to a date later this year without a deferral option for now. They can’t have many remaining deferrals to other races.

I hope they learned something from last year and don’t run with the same registration/deferment/postponement/cancellation shell game they played last year.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Rumors I heard were (1) sept / oct time frame or (2) outright cancellation of base access (been hearing this for a couple years )

At some point, maybe already, deferrals will meet critical mass

I think the "one deferral" policy is just standard language that they use for a normal year. I don't think it really applies to a pandemic year. I was able to defer 2x with IM Estonia. The first deferral (2019 to 2020) was a schedule conflict on my part. Then, the pandemic hit and they allowed me to defer again from 2020 to 2021. It could be a race by race descretion, but I was able to defer 2x for free.

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My marathon PR is "under three, high twos. I had a two hour and fifty-something."

The Puerto Rico 70.3 was cancelled for the second year in a row, and when the 2021 race was cancelled we were given the option to defer to a race later in 2021 or defer to Puerto Rico 70.3 in 2022. My 2021 slot was a deferral from the cancelled 2020 race.

IM 70.3 Greece planned for April 2020, then Oct 2020, and now Oct 2021, allowed two deferrals with no extra charge. However, the hotel costs on either side of the original race entry + lodging fee increased. Also, expect the pre-paid travel and bike rental fees to increase above the stated costs planned for April 2020.

IM 70.3 Puerto Rico planned for March 2020, then Sept 2020, then March 2021, and now pushed to March 2022, allowed three deferrals with no extra charge. Again, the hotel rates (not an option as part of the race entry fee combination) increased as did rescheduling transportation costs.

These examples are signs of IRONMAN doing the right thing with regard to paid entry fees for races that stay. For those races canceled with entries offered for other races is good too, though for many of the races, the competitors choose the destinations. When those change, it's not as exciting as when signing up.

https://www.palmtreesahead.com/
https://www.palmtreesahead.com/tactics2faster-new

Poster on facebook at a SD facebook group has Oceanside postponed to October 30. Heard through contacts of race organizer. News was supposed to be this week via IM.

Actually I'm not so sure about this anymore since Newsom modified/lifted the state Stay at Home order.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

I’d bet money on it

And not just because I’ve read reports that Messick said it’s a done deal in a phone conference

Lifting stay at home orders and allowing mass gatherings are not the same.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I still think it's not happening, but I also didn't think Newsom would change lift the order.

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Washed up footy player turned Triathlete.

Totally agree. Here in Europe we are still seeing confinement’s getting stricter not easier.

I just cannot see anyone getting a race permit for a race involving 2k+ athletes.

My estimated date for vaccination is now September due to issues with both Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines.

As much as I pray they do not cancel 70.3 Galveston and IM Tulsa or any of them for that matter. I would rather them pull the trigger sooner then later so we can all plan accordingly.

That just mean the decision now goes back to the County. And med profs I know in SD county say not a chance in hell

Agreed.

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Janyne

I was trying to explain to my wife the difference between having "tons" of people at the beach (which she saw when she drove through Oceanside recently), and holding a huge race with thousands of racers, not to mention permits, police, volunteers, and travel, and lodging, etc. etc. etc.

Just not going to happen in California at this point.

100% agree. I'm signed up for IMTX and I expect it will be COVID-postponed for the second year/ third time in a row. As much as I want to do it, I'd be relieved if they postponed or cancelled it today just so I could have some certainty. I think if they offered me the chance, I would just take IMTX 2022 and bag 2021 entirely. I'm tired of trying to train with a constant doubt about whether the event will occur.

I am with you!

Newsom is in full on recovery mode, he's going to have to allow some events to move forward soon (with proper testing/precautions) to save his position. I think Fall is a safe-ish bet.

Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me if that's the end of IM O'side. It's the only public athletic event on the base they haven't disposed of in recent years. It's remained because it promotes goodwill/cooperation between the city of Oceanside and the base, and there's a long history there both good and not so good. Plus, I'm not so sure Oceanside really feels the need for that race anymore. Now that the beach area has mostly received it's facelift (I really should've bought beach-front property there when it was "affordable"), they get plenty of tourist money every weekend. Either that, or re-route it off the base, which wouldn't be easy. There have been some city employees in recent years that, together with a few base personnel have fought hard to bring it back every year, but many of them are retired or retiring.

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Jim Manton / ERO Sports

What does this have to do with anything? Do you really think that lifting the "Stay at home order" would some how allow for a 2000+ sporting event to happen? and that would also mean that the military base would allow 2000+ athletes sweating, spitting, snotrocketting go through their base? Do you seriously think that?

Yeah, I believe this is going to be the end of Oceanside 70.3 and I can't imagine how they would re-route the bike. The rest of the city, although bike-friendly, it's not bike-race friendly.