A healthy Anne Haug is going to be very tough to beat.

She was on my short list but just couldn't put her above the other 3. Gonna be a heck of a race for sure!

1. Matthews
2. Haug
3. Philipp

I really want Kat to win, and she is in good shape (really good race in Lahti). Also time for Laura to be on the podium...
I think it is too soon for Knibb, 1st IM, 1st time in Kona...not too much specific training...

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Spaniard. Sorry for my english for the sensitive ones :P

<<1. Daniella Ryf (Never bet against a champion)

did you not just bet against Chelsea? lol


this is a tough one this year, my bets (mix of sentimental and educated):


1. Chelsea
2. Daniella
3. Taylor
4. Annie
5. Kat

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Mike Plumb, TriPower MultiSports
Professional Running, Cycling and Multisport Coaching, F.I.S.T. Certified
http://www.tripower.org

Ryf
Knibb
Haug
LCB


People writing off Ryf must have memory loss of her 8:08 WR at Roth this year.
The passing of her father last week will certainly fuel her fire.

Good catch - Chelsea is certainly another dark horse and too be honest, this field is STACKED!!! This is honestly why I posted the thread - Excited for Triathlon for sure!

Laura Philipp is another interesting one. If not for that drafting penalty she could possibly have been on the podium last year.

The women's field definitely feels much tighter than the men's field.

It will be nice to have a different front dynamic than Lucy hanging out herself with Fenella Langridge (assuming a repeat of last year). I'm curious if the two of them will try to hang with Knibb. And if Knibb will approach the first 90k with caution and welcome the support.

I still think the race has suddenly become Knibbs to lose. Everyone talks about the new ITU athletes coming over to take over Ironman. Well, we've had that in the males, so it makes sense that Taylor will do it for the women.

I just hope she gets the nutrition dialed in well enough to support that massive engine she has.

She has been very quiet recently which generally means she is going really well and doing a big training block or she is carrying an injury.

We will find out race day but my 2p =

1. Haug
2. Ryf
3. Sodero

I think Knibb will fade over the run but hang on for a top 10.

Whatever it is going to be an exciting race with multiple scripts!

Langridge's biking this year shows no indication of being able to catch LCB. And if she does the both of them will not be keeping much of a gap on Haug and Matthews, which is the acid test.
LCB will not have the watts to stay with Knibb once caught, even if she tries, unless Knibb, as you moot, is "cautious" to Hawi.
But that is Knibb's dilemma. She needs to mitigate the risk of finding 26 miles 'a bit long' by getting a decent gap. And that includes a gap on LCB: the latter has shown year on year how gritty she is in that last quarter of the run (as Crowley and Haug found). Hanging around at LCB speed will merely mean the other contenders gain on them both, or at least lose no time. Knibb seems to make most of her gains on the bike in the first half rather than the second. Twice the distance she's ever raced is likely accentuate that pattern.
Ironically the dark horse here is the multiple world champion: if Ryf's Roth persona turns up Knibb will be chasing her without success on the run, being chased herself by the 'runners' in the race for second.
We really are in for a treat with 7 top women in the mix.
Thank goodness the coverage will not be divided with the men and hopefully can reach down beyond the leading few to the action further back (please no long periods of watching LCB or Knibb cycle along, and please no motos less than 50m in front of any athlete).

i'm going to once again cite my golden rule here, which is that ryf does not battle it out for minor positions. she either wins it going away, totally untroubled, OR she's a non-factor all day. generally we know which by about halfway to 2/3rds through the bike.

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

This is shaping up to be the race of the year. Just can't f&*$ing wait for it to unfold. So many scenarios and possibilities, really hope it's still up for grabs deep into the race.

1. Ryf
2. Knibb
3. Haug

Good luck trying to pick the podium here.

Hard pass for me.

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

that's how i feel. anyone claiming to have a crystal ball on this one is talking pants! there are so many ways it could unfold and so many unknowns in the mix, that i think it's more about choosing your sentimental favourites. i'm wodering:

-which ryf shows up?
-lucy has hardly raced in ages, but pre-injury threw down one of the greatest performances of all time at 70.3 worlds. how's she doing?
-laura has had some incredible ITT-type performances, will she finally have a clean race at kona?
-anne is probably the best runner in IM history - will she put it together?
-kat is coming back from an unimaginable injury - how will she go?
-chelsea is returning champion, and historically, past results are the best predictor or kona performace.
-knibb is obviously a great athlete, but totally untested at IM distance . . . and kona is a different beast altogether.
-the list of dark horses/top 10 threats is immense: could norden and astle blow up the bike? does sarah true finally uncork a huge performance? will fenella swim at the front and hold on? will any number of the all-rounders like skye/sarah/etc come good and sneak their way up, slow and steady all day?

then you have all sorts of objective factors, too:
-what kind of heat, humidity, and wind do we have?
-how are the tides/currents?
-what role to motos play in the dynamics?
-any bizarre penalties?

finally, i also promise that no matter which totally crazy scenario plays out, there will be people on ST after the fact saying, "ah yes, just as i predicted!"

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____________________________________
https://lshtm.academia.edu/MikeCallaghan

http://howtobeswiss.blogspot.ch/

With 10 days to go:
#1 Matthews
#2 LCB
#3 Haug

LCB leads Knibb out of swim but in first quarter is passed by Knibb
Ryf leads the chase group, limits Knibb's advantage and catches LCB before entering town (as 2022)
Knibb leading into T2 ahead of Ryf, LCB and the rest
Knibb stays ahead of leading chaser LCB for 13 miles but LCB then catches/passes
Matthews overtakes both with Haug chasing her
LCB holds off Haug as Knibb finds 26 miles a bit long

Does anyone know the reason why Ashleigh Gentle doesn't race full IMs?

I hope the bookies give me good odds on Mathews, cos I reckon she's got as good a chance as any of the other favourites.

No one is going to be surprised if 5 or 6 women win this, possibly the most competitive women's IM field in history??

Probably due to having to do IM training while she can find her sweet spot at the pto + 70.3 distance, It’s just a different training demands for the long stuff requirements for IM. So when you’re among the best 3 hour racers in the world why worry about 8 hour events until you have too. Especially if those 3 hour events are marquee paycheck wins.

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Brooks Doughtie, M.S.
Exercise Physiology
-USAT Level II

Why race fulls when she can win PTO 100K’s at 100 grand a pop. Her worst finish is 2nd and that’s 50 grand.

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Let food be thy medicine...

And you could ask Pallant, Findlay, Jewett, Salthouse, Lawrence and a few others the same question.

Quite possibly it’s not just about the money, but also doing what you love?

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

Right. This is one of the hardest podiums to pick that I can recall. It’s easy to imagine any of the top six, plus Matthews, coming out on top.

I suppose you could just choose the most consistent performers over the last year and at Kona, which would probably be Haug, Ryf, and LCB. But I think Knibb is a notch-above in the talent department, enough to overcome inexperience and a shorter training cycle, so I think she’ll bump one of those three from the podium. That’s about as close as I can get to a prediction.

Ironman prize money not worth it. Yup.

2023 she did 3 PTO races. 2x2nd and a win = $300KUSD. There is no comparison to making a living between PTO and Ironman.

with the expanded PTO series next year I am curious what pros do because $125K for winning Kona and chances thereof + costs to do so = bad ROI.

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@rhyspencer

1. Taylor
2. Chelsea
3. Annie

Haug
Philip
LCB
Norden
Mathews