Better yet, how much does he win by?

Lance

Ullrich + 2:00

Hamilton + 3:00

Gary, that's a vote of confidence. Is Lance using RC's?

I think many folks have riders besides Lance they would "like" to win, however, if the scenario were such that you could only pick one rider for the win and your life depended on it, I feel that most people would be hard pressed to bet against Lance. So yes, I am with you.

I believe he is using UFO's

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"your horse is too high" - tigerchik

I am rooting for Tyler Hamilton, he seems very determined, focused, and showing good form. Conversely, I think that Armstrong might have too many distractions this year...too many commercials, too many accusations, a divorce combined with a long commute to see his kids further complicated with a new high profile girlfriend.

Jan Ullrich? Who knows, a few weeks ago he still seemed to show some weak points in his form and despite his winter struggles with weight Jan is always the guy who always seems to get to the line in great shape.

There are others that look promising but its hard to tell...Armstrong seems to be showing some early signs of a very slight weakening in form...this in only in comparison to years that he rode pretty much perfect races making him seem invincible...while he still has it, I think that he has given renewed inspiration to his competitors.

Either way this is going to be an exciting race to watch.

I'm also going with Tyler. he's got lots of grit and an ungodly tolerance for pain. his solo win last year got him compared to Fausto Coppi, il Campionissimo.

"Armstrong might have too many distractions this year"

Which will make a 6th win all that more remarkable. But like one of the smart asses in our roadie group told me last week "if Lance loses he'll be eating a lot of Crow".

Hey, maybe also if he wins!

"Is Lance using RC's?"

I have no idea

You'd be a rich man if he did :-)

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"your horse is too high" - tigerchik

It will be another close one thats for sure... T-Mobile will put the pedal down on the TTT seeing as how close the GC was last year. The uphill TT d'Huez will be interesting and might suit Jan's since it is not incredibly steep. Either way I think it will come down to Stage 19, a very long 55k TT. I dont see any of the pure climbers ahead of LA, JU or TH by 3 mins. Sorry Mayo, Simoni and Heras fans. Long shots ... one of the CSC riders like Basso or Voigt. Double long shot Rogers and McGee.
http://editorial.gettyimages.com/source/cfw/FrameSet.aspx?s=EventImagesSearchState|1|15|1|51015826|0|0|0|0||0|0&p=2&pk=4
JU is looking very light!!!

I like Hamilton and Armstrong. But the one person being overlooked is Simoni. I think he has been focusing on the Tour all along and that's why he looked flat in the Giro. Besides, he works for Cunego at the Giro, Cunego will repay the favor in the Alps and Pyrrenes. Just my 2cents. We'll see in a matter of hours.

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Shawn
TORRE Consulting Services, LLC
http://www.TORREcs.com

Good post. I think I agree w/ you on all counts.

My tour dark horse is Oscar Sevilla. For some reason, I see him sneaking into the top 5. Not sure who he's replacing(Armstrong, Ullrich, Heras, Hamilton, or Mayo)

"My tour dark horse is Oscar Sevilla. For some reason, I see him sneaking into the top 5. Not sure who he's replacing(Armstrong, Ullrich, Heras, Hamilton, or Mayo)."

Nah. Baby faced Oscar will be riding for Hamilton. Phonak only has one leader and it's Tyler or no one. Having a great all-around rider like Sevilla certainly helps Tyler in the TTT and the mountains.

I also think either Simoni or Heras will be a factor. Depends if one of them can have a huge day in the mountains and on the Alpe d'Huez time trial.

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Aeromon (Aerobic Monster) - Pokomon's evil endurance junkie twin

In the spirit of the weekend, how about some good old fashioned jingoistic support for our boy Lance?

Jan
Lance
mayo
hamilton

Yep that seems about right

Might switch Hamilton and Mayo though.

mayo isn't going to finish

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"your horse is too high" - tigerchik

Cunego will be one to watch in the future... normal HC levels of over 50, has to ride with a special cert just to prove that he is not doping. However he will not be a factor in the tour since he is not on their selected tour team. Simoni has shown nothing of the form that he had the last couple years. His 22 year old teammate gave him his stage in the Giro.

Lance just lost his lawsuit so he is pissed off. When he is pissed off, he usually wins big. Lance by at least 4 minutes over Tyler, with Heras or Mayo third and Jan having a surprisingly poor performance.

Yeah, is it too late to change my picks?

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Shawn
TORRE Consulting Services, LLC
http://www.TORREcs.com

lance absolutely smoked Hamilton and Ullrich. even the announcer said that the time difference was "significant" over such a short distance. this is just a small taste of the havoc armstrong is going to unleash this year. he's a machine.

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http://www.barefootrunning.org

Lance needed to be strong in this Prolouge to wave off any doubts people might have about him.

And the announcer on Eurosport kept talking about how Ullrich is never at 100% at the beginning of the tour, and usually peaks the last week or so.

This year the last week is the most crucial.

I'm rooting for Ullrich.

ullrich is a pansy. lance is saving himself for the end of the race too. he kept saying so over and over again. while jan was stuffing his face with ding-dongs and ho-hos, lance was training his ass off yet again. jan's gonna wreck when he swerves to pull into a doughnut shop.

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http://www.barefootrunning.org