I don't know that anyone's going to be able to answer this question right now! But I'll provide my 2 cents.

Last year - 2023 qualification - was a little funky for the men because it was an unknown quantity. I think the perception was that slots were rolling really far (I don't think it was anything that insane, but I don't have that data) and that the men were generally disinterested in going. But for a first time WC race, seems like it was well attended.

Looking at this year - 2024 qualification - on the women's side, trends are going to be a little skewed too. There are plenty of other threads dissecting why elsewhere on this forum. The point I'd like to bring up here is that due to differences in qualification methods, and a slow start to women accepting slots (rolldowns slowed down AFTER Nice WC '23), looking at the women's data won't be super helpful at least for the fall '23 Nice qualifying races.

All of that to say, I think 2025 qualification is going to be the first 'normal' qualification for the split WC. I'd hypothesize that the men's side will probably create a predictable pattern as will the women's side for the two venues going forward.

Picking a North American race with a greater number of slots and that plays to your strengths will absolutely increase the odds of qualifying or receiving a roll down slot. There's no guarantee of a slot, ever, unless you win your AG, so hard to say anything will be 'good enough' :)


(also getting in before the rest to say, you could also race Ironman Nice without qualifying and pay significantly less in entry fees and still get to see your family. I 100% get and appreciate the appeal of qualifying to justify the travel, though!)

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KJ
Swim and Triathlon Coach
AllTerrainEndurance.com
KJ@allterrainendurance.com

 

Just guessing but I think that getting into Nice from a North American event will be much easier than a European event.

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Once, I was fast. But I got over it.

To try and directly answer your question. In your position, I wouldn’t plan on a whoever wants to go can situation.

That said, assuming 3 slots:
6th or better highly probable
7-10 very probable
11-15 just better than 50-50
16-20 probably when a reasonable hope ends
21-30 - slight chance but possible

I’m basing this off of my assumption that there’s less interest than Kona and travel is expensive further suppressing interest.

From where you say you are, I think you can give yourself a good chance. Find 30-45 minutes and you’ll get it done.

Thank you so much for the direct answer. I feel like my chance is slim if there are only 3 spot for my AG…I am counting on maybe more slots.
There is little hope that I can find 30min in the next 6months or so. I run around 3:30-40 in full, can’t get any faster at my age. I am a shitty cyclist all my life even I spend plenty of time on it.

Don’t sell yourself short. You can definitely get faster at your age, you just have to decide how bad you want it. Is your nutrition (race and everyday) dialed? Can you drop 5-10 lbs to make easy gains on the run? Do you recover properly, get enough sleep? As for the bike, what kind of training are you doing? Structured intervals or just noodling on group rides? Are all your possible aero gains optimized?

What are your current splits for the 3 disciplines? Also, you can gain a lot of time on your competition with fast transitions.

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Let food be thy medicine...

Spending plenty of time doesn't mean your spending it well. And given that one line, it sounds like you may not be.

Not enough info for me to say anything for sure of course, but generally speaking I'd say most people in your position have a lot of low hanging fruit to grab when it comes to improvements if a good coach gets involved.

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Too old to go pro but doing it anyway
http://instagram.com/tgarvey4

I am not sure if it will work this way going forward but in 2021 i was 37th in my age group and in 2022 18th and the spots available were taken way before my placing but a few months after received emails from IM offering an entry. 2021 was St George and 2022 for Nice. Probably because not enough people signed up but you never know it could happen again.

I agree with Jack straw and you run fast enough. You may need to be a bit of a bike nerd to optimize your set up.

I live less than 90min from ironman California starting line and that's my go to race.

Swim: A massive down stream and I can finish around 50min and feel good about it.

Run: I finished under 3:40 both time on an easy effort. I either need to drive myself home after the race or pacing a buddy.
If I decided to go for it, 3:30 is reasonable for me, had 3:20 5 years ago.

Bike:
Good news is my setup is 'good'. Last IM, I had 140w NP and 20.4mph speed.
Chest bottle, deep front, disc, P1 helmet, Nopinz, GLX shoe, aero socks etc. I dress up for the occasion, even I only have chicken legs.

Bad news is I really really suck at cycling. Power is around 140 to 145 for a 5~6 hour effort (from the last 3 full races).
My cadence stuck at 70 FOREVER (even I have 190 run cadence and a 155 crankset). I don't have a cycling body is my excuse now...

.

What’s your weight and FTP? How are you structuring your weekly bike workouts?

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Let food be thy medicine...

I weight 150 during race week with 200 FTP.
My training during winter is 3-4 hr zone 2 (130w)weekend 2 hr zone 2(140w) during week and 1 or 2 75 min tempo(170w 9minx5) during the week, all on a trainer.

Do you deadlift/squat in the winter? Anything that can help making your legs stronger?

I run a lot of hill repeats.

I wouldn’t recommend to rely on rolldowns. Maybe they will happen but to increase your chances of qualifying don’t hope for things outside of your control to play in your advantage.

Initial post asked « how hard ». It is subjective but it will be hard regardless, but you can make it less hard by leaving the planning of the « what » of your training to a coach for example and you focus on execution.

To join the choir of unrelated questions/advice:

have you considered a hilly IM, as opposed to California? As a smaller guy you must really be struggling on flats.

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden

 
If you feel like understanding how you get stuck at 150w you could look at the power duration curves from your training data and look for ways to improve it for your next IM https://www.wko5.com/...pecific-improvements

Is there a drill that can increase the cadence? I feel like my lack of power is due to my 70 cadence. If somehow I can get it to 80+ with the same torque I should be good.

Do intervals at harder then tempo. You need to work all parts of the power curve over the course of a year, VO2, threshold, endurance, etc

I raced IM Texas in 2023 and attended the awards ceremony where they awarded Nice 2023 slots.

All the slots in all the age groups rolled down pretty far. If you were top 30 in large age groups, you had a good chance of getting one. Some of the slots rolled down to 50-60th in some age groups. I think the detailed roll down was posted in a thread on ST (or was it somewhere on Facebook?) but can't find it now. Many of the athletes grabbing slots were europeans.

My view on the reasons for this roll down
- I think the general feeling in the room at the time was that Nice was a "fake" WC, same as St George. The fast Americans wanted to go and race Hawaii
- the cost of 1600 USD for an entry into a race rebuffed many

This may have changed (not sure about the cost of entry in 2025) but if Nice is to there to stay as a WC, then people may change their minds.

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It doesn't get easier, you just get slower
https://mymsracesironman.home.blog/