Long torso and short legs - - great for swimming but sub optimal for cycling. He’d need to drop a lot of the that upper body weight. Great engine, but would struggle to get under 5:15.

Are we talking 2018 Kona or normal windy Kona? If the latter his upper body would make him a sail in the wind.

Like mentioned above, he’s got the perfect anatomy for a swimmer. But this makes for poor cyclist body. Might be tough to get a good fit and a low cda given his large torso. The shorter legs and flexible ankles would adversely affect his watt/kg. Even with all the tools you mentioned I don’t think he would get there in under 5:30 on a typical Kona day

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Matt

I would say he probably could go 4:45 after two years of bike training. The guy already has strong legs and know how to use them from all the kicking. And then there is his huge aerobic capacity. I guess he can take in and process a lot of oxygen and when you can do that you are at an advantage. He also has a unique ability for absorbing big training weeks. When you swim for 20 hours a week with that intensity, 20 hours a week of ironman bike training sounds not too taxing.

Yes he has a huge upper body and is quite tall and that doesn't help in cycling. But we don't talk about winning the Tour de France but riding a 180k TT. In a TT more mass and power are usually an advantage. Of course Phelps is on the other side of that bell curve but the penalty should not be that much.

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

Phelps could likely end up losing 10-15 lbs if he does enough biking and then he's only 10-15lbs heavier than Torbjorne Sindballe. At that point, his engine is soooooo much huger than Torbjorn and given Phelp's long torso he can likely get as aero as Frodo, just wider, but with a much huger engine than Frodo with the same height. I'd love to see an FTP test TODAY on Phelps. I'd guess that the guy's FTP would be around 450W at 5 W per kilo and you'd think with his massive engine and a lifetime of leg conditioning as an IM swimmer, he's be north of 5W per kilo..

A “big engine” for swimming is just that: for swimming. The circulatory, metabolic, and neural “bases” he set up are all specific to swimming. He’d have to spend a good amount of time setting up all those adaptations to cycling. Certainly, he’s starting from a position of having had years of incredible work ethic and the mindset to go with it, Alon with a heart that can definitely circulate blood to working muscle.

But he’d have lots of work to do to get the metabolic and neural adaptations to make his legs able to get him across in any of the times I’ve seen mentioned above.

Remember that TdF rider (not Lance!!) who scared the snot out of all the pros in the IM circuit? His run wasn’t there, and it’s lots closer to transition from cycling to running. And although x-c skiing has some incredible technical learning associated, and is therefore not a great analog to this discussion, an experiment to get Kenyan runners to be good skiers basically went nowhere.

semi-interesting discussion Dev.

For Phelps I don't buy 41 min on an accurate IM swim like Kona (even w/salt water). We know the guy is (was) fast, but after 500 that's endurance in an uncharted territory for him - based on competitions.

Being able to put out massive strength and energy for short periods may or may not translate into the physiology to endure (2.4 miles is endurance, big time)

Kinda like saying Bolt could run a Marathon in 70-75 minutes based on his 200 speed.

I'd put a fork in this thread and call it done :-|

You're still my favorite Canadian who beat me in my AG @ IMLT (RIP) - just don't make a habit of it :-)

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I saw this on a white board in a window box at my daughters middle school...
List of what life owes you:
1. __________
2. __________
3. __________

The guy used to swim 70-100k a week. I'm pretty sure it wasn't all 50m sprints. He had plenty of endurance.

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What's your CdA?

400 IM is 4 minutes. That is in the same category as the 4000m pursuit on the track cycling (around 4 min) and the mile in running. Plenty of those guys scale up hours and hours as the 400IM/mile is 70% aerobic.

I think th comparison is not if Bolt could run a marathon. Its more lilke Mo Farah, who can run a 49 second 400m, a sub 3:30 1500m and he runs 2:05.11

Here are Mo's personal bests

Personal best(s)100m: 12.98[8][9]
800m: 1:48.24
1500m: 3:28.81 AR[10]
Mile: 3:56.49
3000m: 7:32.62 NR[10]
Indoor 3000 m: 7:33.1i NR[10]
2-mile: 8:07.85 AR[10]
Indoor 2-mile: 8:03.40i WR[10]
5000m: 12:53.1 NR[10]
Indoor 5000m: 13:09.16i AR[10]
10,000m: 26:46.57 AR[10]
½ marathon: 59:32 AR[10]
Marathon: 2:05:11 AR[10]
I am certain that both Phelps and Mo have a ton of endurance to go as fast as they do over 4 minutes. Mo has just proven it in racing. We don't know what Phelps can do especially on the bike....but bike TTing is kind of a brain dead sport in that you don't have to be coordinated to do it. If you have a big engine and basic flexibility, you can do that sport well (especially a straight road TT vs a velodrome).

XC skiing and speed skating are par with swimming in terms of technical endurance sports. Kenyan runners have no chance. That's like throwng a 125 lbs Kenyan into the pool and asking him to swim with Phelps at 190 lbs and a foot taller.

That experiment was dead on arrival. The top Elite Skiers are generally 5'10" to 6 feet 3", not that unlike long coure Ironman pros but they tend to be 20ish pounds heavier. Put that physique beside a Kenyan runner and its like Spudd Webb trying to play in the NBA. There are almost no world cup pros under 5'10". The smaller athletes are just like lightweight rowers....they have no chance against the heavier weight and size athletes, because their top line engine is not big enough and the hills are never long enough to reward a Kenyan who is not much smaller than Nairo Quintana. World Cup ski courses tend to have profiles like the hilly bike classics....up and down, but nothing that goes on forever. No chance for a lightweight Kenyan on that even if they are technically competent (I know something about XC skiing as I coached for 14 years and competed for 25 years as a lightweight).

Back in the day, skiers used to be built like runners. Not any more. More built like rowers these days.

I believe the TdF pro you are referring to was Steve Larsen (RIP)!

At the risk of beating a very dead horse (dead b/c this has been stated about 4-5 times in other threads), MP swam 46:34 for 5000 yds on a random practice day. That is 39:21 for 4225 yds (2.4 miles in yds). He'll lose about 0.75 sec/turn in OW which over 200 turns means 150 sec or 2.5 min. Thus in calm water, on a well marked course, 39:21 + 2:30 = 41:51 and that is just based on a non-rested practice time. This I'd say 41 flat when rested would be easy, and prob he could go close to 40:00 on his best day.

Your implied comparison of Bolt's 200 time of roughly 20 sec to MP's 246 sec 400 IM is ludicrous; Bolt is clearly a drop dead sprinter and that type of athlete does not even exist in swimming, since even 50 free guys swim 100 free and/or 100 fly. Anyone who has ever done much swimming knows that 400 IM swimmers are beasts. All of the swim events of 400 and up are considered distance events. Many swimmers would rather swim the 1650 yd/1500 m rather than the 400 IM. :)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

No I wouldn’t; nor would I think (what I can only assume is) an out-of-shape Phelps could remotely approach this number.

That does kind of assume he’d be at the same level (of speed and fitness) as he was when he did that 5k in practice. In our hypothetical scenario he probably isn’t swimming as much. And he is older and likely not as fast now as he was then

But if we were to say how fast could Phelps have gone in the Ho’ala swim that would probably be a different answer than how fast could (or should) he go now if he had to bike and run after

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Matt

I’m with DFW on this. He’s a genetic freak but I’d bet against it being north of 5 watt/kg. Now if one were really interested in seeing how well he is biking they’d just have to figure out the pseudonym he uses for his Peleton Bike workouts. According to an interview he is in the top 5-10%. I don’t know how many quality cyclists or triathletes use Peleton. ie if 5-10% of their users have 5 watt/kg or better ftp’s

https://olympics.nbcsports.com/...cs-swimming-peloton/

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Matt

I think if he trained for cycling like 10,000km to 12,000km per year, that guy could easily be 5W per kilo guy for FTP. Hey if Cam Wurf is north of 5W per kilo, I'd think Phelps can be. But he does not need to be that high for FTP to ride 4:45. Hey Lucy Charles rides that fast!!! (4:38 last year, 4:58 the year before)

OK, well, I was thinking more along the lines of the previous thread on "how fast could MP swim at Kona", and there was discussion of relays at Silverman. Since we are talking "could", I think using the 46:34 5000 scy time is reasonable, espec if we picture him doing just the swim as relay. If OW swimming were a big dollar sport, I'd bet that MP would be swimming in it right now and would be able to compete at the very top up until age 40, if he had "the hunger and the drive". :)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

I'd be more interested to guess what Kipchoge could do on a bike given 3 years of training.

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808 > NYC > PDX > YVR
2024 Races: Taupo

I'm going to throw an oddball out there: I think he can push 4:20 on the bike in fair weather given a couple year's worth of training. He already has an enormous engine (and given how much he used to swim there's plenty of aerobic engine there) and he actually has a decent build from an aero perspective: legs are short relative to his torso (good), shoulder mobility allows for a good shrug (good), big shoulders (bad), long arms (potentially bad).

I'd argue that mass is actually a good thing for the purposes of an endurance TT with a relatively flat profile. I follow the British TT scene and the guys you see doing 100 mile TTs <3:30 all have pretty muscular builds. Look at pictures of Richard Bideau after he went 3:18(!). Definitely not a "climber" or "runner" build.

Kipchoge would barely beat the FOP age groupers. He's 5'5 and 123 lbs. A bit lighter than Lucy Charles, but shorter. I'd say at best he goes a bit faster than her.

Damn theory threads. Has he done an OWS race ever? Forget Kona, there is that Kona prediction race 2 weeks before that Josh/Lucy do, which he can try.