And unless you're on the bike business, that makes me question your mental sanity.

Show me a big graph with wind tunnel tests of all of these bikes and I will get back to you

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Kat Hunter reports on the San Dimas Stage Race from inside the GC winning team
Aeroweenie.com -Compendium of Aero Data and Knowledge
Freelance sports & outdoors writer Kathryn Hunter

The competitiveness of Cervelo (or any other brand) in the TTs or any other stage of the TdF has nothing to do with the bike, but rather has all to do with the rider(s) sitting on the bike.

At the top level, ALL of the bikes used are of sufficient quality as to not hinder their riders.

many are asking the same question and despite all the cervelo marketing hype i do think with the exception of a few cubicle rats (paula and jackie) the cervelo perception is going downhill

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Latest Duct tape QR Superfull fashion model

It is in my mind. I was telling someone the other day that I thought the Soloist was still a pretty cool bike, but all the other companies had caught/passed Cervelo in the tri bike market.

   
There's only so much you can do with a double diamond style frame and the aero technology has probably more or less peaked with this type of frame. Cervelo came out with some very good ideas that have been more or less copied by some other companies. It's probably going to be tough to improve aerodynamics to any significant degree on the current line up of high end tri/TT bikes. Maybe Cervelo will have surprises when the P4 comes out, but it's as difficult for them to improve on the current designs as it is for anybody else.

that's only impressive if you know how many watts they were putting out and how fast they would have gone on another frame. i.e. maybe they would have won by a lot more if they were riding a p3c. Or maybe csc's drug testing is working, etc.

Dan
www.aiatriathlon.com

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http://www.aiatriathlon.com

The answer is "that depends". Cervelo has grown up significantly over the past 3 - 5 years, from a boutique bike company with great science and engineering to more of a mass market appeal model. In its early incarnations there was a cult appeal and you could get the Cervelo boys to respond to your posts over here. However, now its gotten to the scale where it's now a significant business. They supply a TdF team and then have major retail supply commitments. So the company may have peaked if you think it jumps the shark when you start referring to it in the same breadth as Trek, Specialized, etc., but the company clearly has plenty of more room to expand their market position and make great bikes. I'm not a Cervelo fan, but I appreciate them as a company. This isn't about did their bikes win TdF time trials, that's not what this is really about.

If you use more objective measures than the perception that "other people have cutouts now too" you would see that Cervelo needn't worry too much on the design/technology front.

What they do have to worry about is consumers thinking that they can get most of the performance for a fraction of the cost - therefore they will certainly come out with something new at some point. If they come out with nothing new henceforth then we could look back in 5 years and say "cervelo peaked in 2007" - the bikes will still be among the best in 5 years though so it would be a relative statement.

Most of the "newer and more innovative design features" are recycled old ideas and mostly they are different rather than better.

"Cervelo has grown up significantly over the past 3 - 5 years"

You're right on the money. Cervelo is the "little bike company that grew". Consider that the first Cervelos where made in Phil's apartment. It's amazing that Gerard still finds time to post here once in awhile.

Focusing too much on tech development and weight is a fool's errand.

As with many things, the RIDE, feel, and stability and handling of the bike can be important factors in the overall balance of the equation. Obviously, the design and execution of a good road bike is much different than a TT bike. There's a huge difference in my mind between Pinarello's carbon fiber bike and Time's. And my all aluminum DeRosa is lighter, and rides better and more stable, than a few all carbon fiber bikes that I've ridden.

That's not even talking about fit, which is one of the most important factors. Some people fit better on a more traditional geometry than a sloping top tube geometry...

Finally, just because a bike is more aero in a wind tunnel, - doesn't mean that it's going to ride well descending through sharp curves on steep grades..

All manufactuers have peaks and valleys - that's the business. Cervelo has been enjoying a great run, has done a good job of marketing, R&D, and damage control when their manufacturer let them down a bit. There's no way they, or anyone, can ride the wave for too long, but I doubt there's been much downswing in sales - just grassroots hype.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, when the big boys look over their shoulders, I think Felt is the "small" company they worry about the most - a company only eight years old and coming on as quickly as they are is worrying, I'm sure. Maybe not losing sleep, but watching carefully, no doubt. Plus, Felt offers an ever-widening range of products, which cuts into sales at virtually all price points. Dang, sounds like I've drank too much Koolaid lately...:-)

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Jim Manton / ERO Sports

It did have a little help from the Canadian government somewhere in that timeframe. Not to be discounted in the acceleration of the company's evolution.

Rascal,

"Peaked" to me implies that they have reached the top and can go no higher. Perhaps they have reached a plateau, but I don't think they've peaked, either in terms of design or market share.

In a short period of time they have managed to create an incredible and revolutionary line of bikes. Topping that will be tough. As others have mentioned, a) you can only do so much in the limitations of a double-diamond frame, and b) their designs have now been well-duplicated. Another revolution may be difficult to produce anytime soon; evolution, on the other hand, is ongoing. Their designs will likely continue to evolve and improve, and people will still want to purchase their bikes.

mm

Cervelo is a great brand indeed but no matter how great a brand is it will eventually peak.
Along those lines I have noticed that the sub line of Cervelo was changed to "enjoy.engineering" versus the older "vroomen / white design".

Does that mean Cervelo is possibly for sale? And I do understand that everything is for sale at the right price.
So that is not what I am talking about.

Herbert

I'm still waiting for the Cervelo mountain bike line...

I agree with you; however, from a marketing perspective winning this time trials, etc. has a huge impact on marketing and advertising. Moreover, from public perception perspective if your bikes aren't making the telecast in the TdF then you aren't do as well. Cancellara holding the yellow and winning the prologue certainly helps; however, there are plenty of other bikes with cut outs and "look" aero. Also for the other TT Cervelo didn't win. Sure it has to do with the rider, but look at all sports advertising from Gatorade (Michael Jordan), Nike (Jordan and Tiger, etc.), You think that those guys were successful because of the equipment or drinks they used or because they are awesome athletes. Certainly it is because of their athletic talent however that didn't stop Nike from building a huge market share on top of Jordan's success or Tiger's success in golf.

For the wind tunnel question. No company that I know of provides this sort of data in their advertising materials. Thus it makes it more important IMO to have your bikes win stages in the TdF and overall. Let's see Trek has won the last 8-9 TdF and multiple Time trials. That doesn't hurt. When other bike companies are making "cosmetically" similar products and doing as well or better then maybe Cervelo has peaked.

[reply]
I'm still waiting for the Cervelo mountain bike line...[/reply]

Based on what Gerard has said I hope you aren't holding your breath while you wait.

I guess it really depends on how you define peak. It seems they have pretty well saturated the North American market; however, what is their penetration Europe or Australia? I have a feeling they have a pretty good grasp of what markets they are doing well in and which markets they can continue to grow in. I have a feeling if you ask Gerard if they have "peaked" he will tell you no. In the end all that matters is that they have a good plan to continue to grow and that they execute that plan.

Speaking completely as an observer, I'd say no. They have stuck to their guns and consistently made good bikes. If you consider they are in the small high end road/tri arena, I'd say they've got a long way to go.

They have about 6 version/models and of course several options within those models:

Dual
P2 SL (& Track)
P2C
P3C (& Track)
R3 (& SL)
Soloist
Soloist Carbon (& SL)

Now when you consider their other unique bikes like the steel Prodigy, the value oriented One, and the proto-only R3-cross it seems they've got other options to go (back) to already developed.

You've also got undeveloped markets for them to enter, like hardtail euro style MTBs, flat bar road bikes, women's specific products, non-UCI Tri bikes, and additional versions of their current product priced up and down market.

I can envision Cervelo broadening their offering and sustaining their current growth or refocus their intense engineering development on projects like the P3C-SL and R3 - Cross. They've built a reputable image in a tough industry in a timeframe that has leapfrogged cycling standouts like Fuji, Jamis, Lemond, Quintana Roo, and well respected brands like Kona trying to enter the road market.

I think they are controlling their own peak right now, and I'd like to thank them for helping to raise the bar.


-SD

I'm sure they have something huge comming! they always do.

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Formely stef32

Who offers a better bike than the P2C at a better price?

I think the comparable frames on the market are...
TTX
Felt B2(close in price)

As someone who speaks to/works with companies in the industry, I can assure you that Cervelo has not lost their peak. Their sales strategies are aggressive, and depending upon where you are located, I don't think any face time their CSC riders had in the TdF will out promote the vast quantity of Cervelo commercials on Versus :-) (although I miss Phil's goofy little commercials from last year - those were classic). Their engineering is WELL NOTED throughout the industry, and many companies that some Slowtwitters would like to believe are "high end" or "cutting edge" because of historical perspectives have actually asked me "this is the same stuff Cervelo is using?". Of course, I can't really tell them anything other than they have purchased software that we develop :-)

When it comes to composite bike design, it really is a different realm (as mentioned on many previous posts). Cervelo has been doing it longer, and dare I say better than many other companies (including those who are just getting into the composite bike arena). There is more to a composite bike than just aerodynamics, and their methodology at mixing the structural component with aerodynamics is why many companies aspire to be Cervelo.

Of course, SuperDave may refute it, but as mentioned, I think Felt can continue to grow, and it gives Felt that hope that it too can break through the ranks. I know that the history of both engineering departments has crossed paths in the past (perhaps at GT?), and I look forward to seeing how these companies push each other.

...and from a rider's perception: when I moved to So.Cal 7 years ago, I was amazed at the predominance of eurotrash bikes on the road (we didn't see that many in the midwest). Now, every week, I am amazed by the vast numbers of Cervelo's on the road. Others I know have also made the same comments.

So the short answer to the original questions would be: no. It doesn't appear as though Cervelo has peaked.

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Craig Preston - President / Preston Presentations
Saving the world with more professional, powerful, and persuasive presentations - one audience at a time.

Gerard and his CFO are probably the only ones that can accurately answer this question, my guess is the answer is no. Because of the FIST clinics that Dan puts on here, I get to meet a lot of the dealers around the country. Their main complaint is that they cannot get enough bikes(mostly because they didn't order enough in the beginning). Other complaints are that they cannot get the line( because of proximity to another dealer), or that they have to order too many bikes to become a dealer( they are trying to go with the bigger hitters). All of these tell me that they have not peaked, and are the line to get if you can. There is a lot of negative comments, but those are from dealers that do not have, or cannot get the line, that is to be expected.

Because of this situation, other smaller companies like Felt, Kuota, ect., are getting a lot of new business. There will always be a niche for an up and coming company, in a small to medium shop. When a company grows our of suppllying this niche, someone else gets a chance to fill it. You can bet that tall these other companies would love to be where Cervelo is now. I see Felt's in the TDF now, so I expect them to peak soo too....