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Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona....
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Frodo might just "out Macca" Macca, not by any sly fox tricks at Kona itself, but by virtue of everything he did this year and the fact he can just attack all legs or play poker all he wants on any leg. All his key rivals have weaknesses at some point.

  • You want to swim with Frodo...good luck...him and Josh Amberger will lift the Kona swim pace to jettison Sanders-Kienle-Wurf and crew as early as possible. Everyone knows this is going to happen and everyone is waiting for that bomb to drop. He can attack on the swim and will to put his competition at a disadvantage.
  • Onto the bike, everyone is waiting for the Uberbiker train, but Frodo will be charging with his own Uberbiker train. Amberger is no slouch and they should have Starky to work with very soon. Frodo will be highly motivated to jettison Gomez and Lange as early as possible if the swim pace calms and others are able to get to T2 with him. And he has strong bikers to do it with. Everyone knows that Frodo will not want to let Gomez hang around pushing less watts than he needs to. Frodo and Brownlee and Kanute were able to hammer at the front at 70.3 Worlds. it seemed like Gomez was hanging on the ropes. Frodo's going to want to soften Gomez early and make sure that the Wurf-Sanders-Kienle train is as fried as possible by T2. He just needs this train to be fried enough that Sebi nor Sander can do a decent run. He's going to also want the pace of their train to be fast enough that they can't tow Gomez and Lange anywhere close. If Frodo wants to play the uberbiker game he can do like Oceanside. If he wants to play the uber runner game he can do like Frankfurt. If he wants to soften up the competition he can just ride surgy and put the faster runners in the red zone without going into that zone himself
  • Onto the run, Frodo can jog if his entry to T2 is early enough and win. If he soft pedals then he can put the run hammer down like Frankfurt

He's looking unbeatable in all three sports. Barring a flat or other mechanical, the fact that he can attack on every leg or just sit in and play everyone's games gives him every card to play. He can be like Geriant Thomas at the TdF and just mark everyone, and just burn a few matches at the most opportune times only....otherwise he can just stay low octane, and save the jet fuel for speficic times. Others don't have that luxury...they have to play their stengths and minimize weaknesses....Frodo is as strong as everyone on each leg and has zero weakness.

They better hope that Frodo who pulled off two uber runs in 2 months just used up his 2 high octane run sessions for the season and used his last one today before Kona rather than at Kona. But this guy is so strong he does not need an A+ run to win Kona.

But there is Lange. That guy did not run a quad shedding run at Frankfurt. If he is close enough and Frodo used his last A+ run today, then its not over till its over. We did not see a fast run YET from Lange this year.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Again (twice today) I agree with your big points. Curious to see whether Gomez hangs on the bike group or does his own thing and hopes they explode.

Very curious to hear Fitter Radio tomorrow to get perspective on Braden’s race. He still is a podium candidate in my mind.

Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I like how at the finish of Frankfurt after hugging a buckled Lange he went and got him a towel or water to help cool him off. To me the message was clear. Are you ok? Did I break you little fella? I'm feeling fine ;) I think everyone will have to try and dictate the race to him and he can choose to react.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I'll give it to you that Jan is the favorite, but it will not be 65 and raining in Hawaii.
Jan is 6'4" and visably suffers late in the run in Hawaii (you could see the same suffering on the feed yesterday). Sure, he has had a lead and doesn't need to go faster, but he is beatable and all the top guys think they can beat him.

I'd imagine that Kienle, Lange, Sanders, McNamee, Hoffman, ect watched the race and were happy that he had to dig that deep and that the race is 2x as long in significantly harder conditions.

All those guys are a good bit shorter than Jan. Jan is super lean, but at some point, he's still 6'4". and the heat has to dissipate somewhere.

I guess I'm agreeing with you that Jan is the favorite, but disagreeing that his main competition watched the race and was psyched out.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [MI_Mumps] [ In reply to ]
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MI_Mumps wrote:
Again (twice today) I agree with your big points. Curious to see whether Gomez hangs on the bike group or does his own thing and hopes they explode.

Very curious to hear Fitter Radio tomorrow to get perspective on Braden’s race. He still is a podium candidate in my mind.

How is Braden in the heat over a long race. His race at Cairns was awesome.

As a fan, I would actually like to see Frodo and Gomez get to T2 in Kona together like they did today. But I don't think that will happen.

Also in Kona if they get to T2 together, Gomez is 6 kilos smaller....in the Kona heat this is a huge advantage in terms of heat generation (that another reason Lange is so fast running at Kona at 62 kilos). Jan is yet to run low 2:40's in Kona. But he has not needed to. But if he has to, at 75 kilos "can he"?

On the one hand I THINK Jan can run with Gomez out of T2....but if they are head to head coming out of the energy lab and all those uphills to the top of Palani the advantage flips to Gomez just because of carrying less weight and generating less heat.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Rumor has it Lionel has discovered a new diet that may give him the edge. Supposed to drop 10 pounds between now and Kona....
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [oprfcc] [ In reply to ]
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Looks like we posted at the same time about Jan's heat disadvantage....but I don't think his competition will be thinking about his single genetic kona disadvantage. I thing they are largely psyched out by his season so far.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Fair enough. You have to remember that a lot of guys on that list have beaten him before. And recent hard races take away from Jan, they don't build him up stronger. Or at least, that's how a guy who has beaten him looks at it.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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There are too many In Kona that will prevent Gomez at T2 with Jan. Jan himself, Wurf, Sanders, Kienle. All those guys are going to fry Gomez on the bike and he’ll have to play catch up. Jan is the clear favorite showing no weakness right now.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Other than today, with Gomez slowed from the GI issues and some walking, you can count on one hand how many times Frodo out ran Gomez. Expecting him to do so gives little respect to a guy who has won at every level and discipline in the sport save Kona (to which he has yet to compete in). People said he could not possibly win Maui in '12 as he was just a roadie, and he proved them wrong with a bike split that was only 3min slower then the technical legend Stoltz and Middaugh (one of the best all around MTB riders on other XTERRA circuit).

The real advantage Frodo has is his experience in Kona, and how much that plays into the race will determine the outcome with Gomez than any perceived power advantage you suggest on the bike. Very few guys go to Kona and do well on the first visit, as any one who has watched the sport for the last 10-20 years knows (or has raced there themselves), so I would be terribly surprised if Gomez had a similar struggle. His past suggests not, but Kona is one tough place.



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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Counter-point: Sebi finally has some guys that can ride with him on their way to T2.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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But what about Jan's diet and thin frame. Joke.
Those guys are quite today.

What we are going to see is the winner will have this bike and run combo in time.
7:05.
Past winners 7:10, 7:15,7:20,7: 15. 2011 7:08 ( fastest combo?)

Which ever athlete can add there bike and run for a 7:05 will win

Jan maybe 4:25+2:40
Gomez, Lange, Currie 4:30 + 2:35

Seib and Sanders 4:20+ 2:45

Stark 4:15 + 2:50.

Wurf 4:05 +3 ??? It could happen.

Winner 7:57-7:59.

Others that could hit that number too.

Vacuum number weather can plan into a longer day but similar number ratios

They should really focus on that sinaro not worried about the swim.

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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [oprfcc] [ In reply to ]
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oprfcc wrote:
I'll give it to you that Jan is the favorite, but it will not be 65 and raining in Hawaii.
Jan is 6'4" and visably suffers late in the run in Hawaii (you could see the same suffering on the feed yesterday). Sure, he has had a lead and doesn't need to go faster, but he is beatable and all the top guys think they can beat him.

I'd imagine that Kienle, Lange, Sanders, McNamee, Hoffman, ect watched the race and were happy that he had to dig that deep and that the race is 2x as long in significantly harder conditions.

All those guys are a good bit shorter than Jan. Jan is super lean, but at some point, he's still 6'4". and the heat has to dissipate somewhere.

I guess I'm agreeing with you that Jan is the favorite, but disagreeing that his main competition watched the race and was psyched out.

I am sure they were rather thinking: F*#* I could never run that fast at a 70.3. Kienle and Sanders certainly can’t. And Lange can’t swim as fast. The fact that Frodeno was pretty exhausted at the end does not mean anything. You can be exhausted at the end of a 3k if you use all you have got in you. Does not mean he will be weak at the end of a marathon at all. He will run at a slower pace anyways. Do you do a sport? A couple of seconds/k can make a world of a difference in long distance running.

He can only beat himself or have mechanical problems to lose it, if he keeps the shape he has had all year. That should be pretty obvious by now.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [oprfcc] [ In reply to ]
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Uhh... Not sure if you can be happy that he was suffering because while he was suffering, he made Alistair and Javier hurt even more, dropped a couple of 2:53 min/kms, and dropped them in the process

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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [ChasingPB] [ In reply to ]
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Two aspects here:
  1. Frodo prefers hot conditions. Physiologically 75kg vs. 62kg certainly make a difference on the run, especially in the heat. But Frodeno won't be scared if it gets hot.
  2. Kienle and "his train" will take long time and hard efforts to close the gap to Frodo/Amberger/Gomez. I would not be surprised if Kienle would not be able to make the train with Wurf and Sanders while these guys will be 5 min. or more behind Frodo/Amberger/Gomez. In other words: Kienle's swim does not seem to have improved. He raced Challenge Walchsee/Austria (a half IM-distance) yesterday and l had a pretty weak swim. In the end a solid win, fastest bike and run splits. And he arrived from high-altitude training camp. But has not even been first in T2...

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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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I think you just described Mark Allen at his (Kona) prime; not sure Frodeno is quite there.

29 years and counting
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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While Frodo may be in a few guys heads still one also gets the notion that some pros like Lionel seem to have already come to terms with Frodo likely being unbeatable this year. Barring some really extraordinary happening I think its not really a question who will win the men's and the women's race this year but by how much and who will come in second or third.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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Re the bodyweight/dissipate heat thing - it's not just the actual weight itself that matters. It's the surface area of the body compared to overall weight, skin being the heat exchange interface - being lean also helps as muscles are less thick and it's easier to get the heat away.

Frodo's 5kg more than Gomez spread across his tall lean frame may well be more optimal than Gomez body composition. Gomez looked a little bulked up to me - maybe just a 'compared to everyone else' thing, but I'd be interested to know his weight compared to his optimal ITU weight. Ditto Frodo - has he dropped weight transitioning to the superb LC athlete he is today from his best ITU form.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]
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gomez cracked because of the pressure jan put him under. if he'd been able to run his pace, controlling the race at the front, he wouldn't have had the issues he had (a stitch, not gi issues).

jan has been serving warning all year to everyone counting him out after kona - oceanside, kraichgau, frankfurt. and you all fell for the brownlee gomez hype based on previous years performances.

jan will win with the first sub 8hr kona performance in october, absolutely no doubt.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [TRO Saracen] [ In reply to ]
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TRO Saracen wrote:
Re the bodyweight/dissipate heat thing - it's not just the actual weight itself that matters. It's the surface area of the body compared to overall weight, skin being the heat exchange interface - being lean also helps as muscles are less thick and it's easier to get the heat away.

Frodo's 5kg more than Gomez spread across his tall lean frame may well be more optimal than Gomez body composition. Gomez looked a little bulked up to me - maybe just a 'compared to everyone else' thing, but I'd be interested to know his weight compared to his optimal ITU weight. Ditto Frodo - has he dropped weight transitioning to the superb LC athlete he is today from his best ITU form.

You are correct. It's surface to volume that really counts for heat dissipation. I think Gomez can put down a 2:42 in Kona. I would think that Frodo CAN if he needs to. I think Gomez CAN go 2:40 even if he has to in the heat which is what he may NEED to if he is 5 min back of Frodo at T2.

At T2 if we get "this spread at T2" the race is on

Wurf with Kienle + Sanders at 00
Frodo at +3
Gomez-Lange at +7

This only happens if Frodo decides that the Wurf group pace is "too hot" and he could be relegated to walking and then Gomez+Lange can pass him. Kienle and Sanders have no other cards to play. They need a big lead on Frodo at T2. Frodo likely thinks he can choose to come even into T2 with Lange and Gomez and outrun them, but he would probably feel more comfortable with a small buffer.

Then there is dark horse Braden Currie. What if he comes to T2 with Frodo. That guy ran 2:39 at Cairns and outran Gomez
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [Chad] [ In reply to ]
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Was it Jan surging that caused Javier to get the stitch? Or was Javier getting a stitch, and it looked like Jan surged? I suspect the later.

I would expect Javier to employ the same tactic in Kona he's done with all his 70.3s: swim front pack, but not lead the pack - bike front pack, but not lead the pack.

In Kona I'd predict he stays with Jan - whatever Jan does if / when Sebi, Lionel, Cameron come, Javier does the same. If Jan goes with them, so does Javier.

His tactic has been to conserve energy and wait for the run.

I expect the same in Kona. And hoping he takes the win.

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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [Scotttriguy] [ In reply to ]
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Just look at the pace Jan went at around 15th k which was sub 3 Min/km. Certainly a pace Gomez is not comfortable running for such a long time. He looked pretty spent already a couple of k’s before. People on FB were actually calling it out minutes before he slowed. He tried to stat with Jan, couldn’t keep the pace and had to recover from the stitch. A stitch happens when you breath incorrectly which does not happen to an elite athlete unless they are in trouble. No matter who slice it, he was not running in his comfort zone.
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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [Chad] [ In reply to ]
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You have no clue as to why he had a 'stitch'. He was running a pace that would be a pedestrian one in an ITU race so it was definitely not something that he was not accustomed. The likely cause was more likely a fueling or salt water issue than a pace issue. He could also had other things go wrong, we will never know what slowed him up.

He is a faster runner than Frodo, that has been proven time and time again.



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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]
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If you recall, Dev, JG nearly bonked in Cairns because he took in too few calories. I doubt he ran anywhere near his potential there.



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Re: Frodo inside everyone's head before Kona.... [CPT Chaos] [ In reply to ]
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CPT Chaos wrote:
Other than today, with Gomez slowed from the GI issues and some walking, you can count on one hand how many times Frodo out ran Gomez. Expecting him to do so gives little respect to a guy who has won at every level and discipline in the sport save Kona (to which he has yet to compete in). People said he could not possibly win Maui in '12 as he was just a roadie, and he proved them wrong with a bike split that was only 3min slower then the technical legend Stoltz and Middaugh (one of the best all around MTB riders on other XTERRA circuit).

Kind of a bummer when two of those times Jan outran Gomez were for Olympic gold and yesterday's 70.3 Worlds. Big Gomez fan here, but... On a TT bike, Jan seems to have found his element.

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