the swim can change the finish time by a good 5'
(please make it not choppy...I hate that...small dudes are like corks in choppy waters)

the winds can affect the bike quite a bit. But overall, I think the winner always rode just below 4.40 (4.39
for Shortis, 4.36 for Smith)...

with guys of that caliber winning time is below 8h30' and the weather decides for how much below it is...

It looked like this year's start list has alot IM Canada folks. Do you think that Tissink/Evans/MacFadyen are the main three contenders?

add to those three, Francois :-), and perhaps some who had bad races at Hawaii who frequently come to Florida. Would be interesting if Larsen showed up. Wonder what he would do to that bike course?

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Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks

not sure about Garret...
if the water is rough, he is going to be way back after the swim. on a flat course, I am not sure you can make a huge difference on the bike (unless you are Steve Larsen in great shape)...
if the water is rough, I wouldn't be surprised that he gives 15' to the best swimmers.

One you forgot (not a good swimmer, but a bit better than Garrett) is Stefan Riesen. the guy can definitely bike and run and is more consistent than Garrett. However I was told he is very good over the hills, but not that good on the flat (all relative however).

my picks would be Tissink/Evans/Riesen/+ probably one from kona as Frank said.

[reply]It looked like this year's start list has alot IM Canada folks. Do you think that Tissink/Evans/MacFadyen are the main three contenders?[/reply]

Stefan Riesen who won Powerman Zofingen and was second in IM France and Switzerland will also race in Florida. If he had a better swim (normally aroud 56min) he would be a main contender. But he is good for at least top 5.

Felix

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http://www.weilenmann.ch.vu

Fellow Swedish triathlete Jonas Colting is also in the race. He has had a rough year so far but if he survives the cold october weather in Sweden he´ll be right up there.

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BA coaching http://www.bjornandersson.se

Hey, Bjorn, didn't Jonas spend some time in Mallorca recently? Although, not knowing anything about the place, I looked it over a bit and saw that the average temperature in September/October is only about 20C. (A little better than what you're getting at 60 degrees latitude in Sweden at the moment.)

Reading some of your exchanges with Gordo has inspired me to fix up my old beater road bike over the winter and do some road riding come spring before the upstate New York salt has totally left the roads. (Our white Christmas is sometimes due more to road salt than snow.) Having a Computrainer has made me faint of heart to take my good bike out in crappy weather, but a little UV light would probably do me good.

Cheers,

Dan

According to IMNA, they're not letting anyone else in the race, even pros (including me), all Hawaii drop outs, etc.

If they let Larsen,etc in, I think they're opening themselves up for trouble, if you know what I mean, and I think you do...

Anyway, lately I find it silly to ever bet against Tissink, he's figured out these Ironmans, and he's solid all around. It should be a good race though.

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"What's good for me ain't necessarily good for the weak-minded."

I'd agree that Raynard is doing great...
Not sure what problems bjorn was talking about for Jonas C. but the dude finished couple of minutes behind C Brown on his home turf...
if he is fit he will give Raynard something to hurt for...
that said, not sure how the transition from cold Sweden to humid Florida will do for him.

funny you say that...Nicole Leder's name just appeared on the participant list.

oh and wingnut too...

Raynard didn't have the best of races there last year - out to make ammends and doing some huge milage down Boulder way. I wouldn't be betting against him on this one!!

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http://www.endurancesports.ca
Coaching and Training Camps

PNF just e-mailed me that they're letting any former IM winner in, so there's a chance Larsen could show and go. Or stink it up, and tell everybody he has SARs or Herpes Simplex 10 or something.

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"What's good for me ain't necessarily good for the weak-minded."

If Evans and Tissink come into this race like they did in Canada it could be another great race. From what I have heard, I would expect both of them to have even better potential than in Canada. Anyone else will have to have a great day to beat either one of them, if they are on.

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Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks

["...they're letting any former IM winner in, so there's a chance Larsen could show and go. Or stink it up, and tell everybody he has SARs or Herpes Simplex 10 or something."]

Wow, that seems a little harsh...what gives?

Sour grapes Bobo.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

bobo's a long-time Larsen thrasher, Garth.

Do you still have that "Top Larsen Excuses" survey on your site, bobo?

"The cops shot out my tires!" was my favorite.

BTW -- I'm still a Larsen fan and hope he puts together the race he's capable of.

Does anyone besides Frank or me actually know Larsen?

He's not a bad person, and he has very cute kids. It's his style of which I'm not a fan.

It's just my personal opinion that the only acceptable (public) excuse for for a bad race is "I just got my ass whupped" or "Today, I stunk up the joint". Steve or his apologists like my old compadre Iron seem to stay up into the wee-hours brain-storming (blame-storming?) new excuses to cover any possible contingency.

So take those sour grapes, wad them up carefully so there are no sharp edges, and sh

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"What's good for me ain't necessarily good for the weak-minded."

I'll answer for Garth -- yes, Garth is a personal friend and training mate of Steve's, so I (and we all) should understand why Garth might be miffed at seeing his friend slagged on a message board.

Damn, all those TDB lame Hawaii excuses are wasted on Bobo. OK TDB just got his ass whupped. You are tough, Bobo, really tough.

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Frank,
An original Ironman and the Inventor of PowerCranks

TDB=No consistent pattern

The fact that TDB is 2xIMH champ, and a guy I personally get along well with of course tempers any slack I cut him. I have cracked on him in the past for his tendency to ride too close to the guy in front of him, though.

As I said earlier, it's a matter of opinion on personal style, not intrinsic worth as a human being.

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"What's good for me ain't necessarily good for the weak-minded."

>>Does anyone besides Frank or me actually know Larsen?<<

Yes, I know Steve and Carrie and the kids, and, after last weekend, his brother Mike. So keep your grapes pal.

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clm
Nashville, TN
https://twitter.com/ironclm | http://ironclm.typepad.com

You're right, I have no idea who this Larsen guy is. I get along really well with his dog Major, though; we went running at Shevlin Park a couple of weeks ago when I was up in Bend for a few days. Oh, and on occasion I have been known to take splits on Mossi's lap times around the block on his Razor, but I have never met, talked to, had dinner with, driven to races with, hung out with, rode/swam/or run with Steve Larsen. I am sure you are much better acquainted with Steve than I am, and thus much more informed in your opinion of his public and private persona.

But of course your critique is restricted strictly to Steve's public demeanor - you certainly bear no personal animus toward him. In this regard, does your criticism of his post-race comments stem from your belief that his claim of illness was a fabricated excuse or a genuine explanation that should not have been shared? If the former, please cite your evidence, truth being an accepted defense to slander. If the later, and you simply bear a deep-seated moral belief in the stoic acceptance of failure to achieve one's goals as stemming solely from withing oneself, why do you care if someone else does not subscribe to this? Perhaps, in your experience, there is no reason for losing a race other than the fact that you simply weren't fast enough/didn't train enough/shouldn't-have-been-racing-as-a-pro-when-you-are-unlikely-to-win-your-own-age-group-at-a-major-race (gosh, I don't know where that last one came from!). But maybe other people actually have the ability/potential to win a race but "bad things happen." Why isn't it perfectly reasonable that those folks get to explain what bad thing happened? Personally, as a fan, I find it much more interesting and newsworthy that TDB passed a kidney stone in his race and so dropped out than that he "had a bad day out there."

Anyway, as to SL particularly, I could better see your point if you had more examples, particualraly from races where he performed well but did not win (e.g. 1/2 Vineman, Xterra USA Champs). I think in those circumstance, ones that beg for an excuse as to the result, you would find that Steve is more than happy to say that he raced hard and got beat. Damn, I'm turning into one of those pesky apologists, aren't I? Of course, maybe if you ever said any of this to Steve's face, I wouldn't have to post in reply? But thats probably not your "style," huh?

[BTW, bebe, I think we hit on why there are so few post-race interviews featuring you; the press simply does not flock to that humble, self-effacing attitude that you so obviously embody and practice (you are such a great guy!). Or maybe its just that no one cares how you did or why you didn't.]

Finally, I guess I just don't get why you would dis a guy for simply having a different "style" than yours. And why just Steve; presumably there are others who do not meet your rigorous moral standards. Its good of you to explain that you comments are not intended to imply anything about his intrinsic worth; you obviously run backward as well as you run forward. I assume you will understand that anything written above, despite its seemingly obvious intent to attack you as an individual, is likewise addressed only toward your style and not toward your intrinsic worth. Whew, glad I got that off my chest! I need to spend more time running and less typing.

"TDB=No consistent pattern "

For cripessake, bobo, nobody is "consistent" anymore.

Leder has an outstanding race at Roth and disappears in Kona. Macca ditto. Garrett McF tears up CA in '02 and does nothing of note since. Spencer Smith; Peter Reid; etc., etc.

Barb Lindquisdt is the only consistent triathlete around right now. Don't single out Deboom.

I meant a consistent pattern of excuses. I think Tim is a very consistent athlete, as well as magnanimous in victory and defeat.

As for Garth: Sorry I desecrated your alter. Keep telling yourself, "In with the good air, out with the bad... in with the good air, out with the bad..." before you vapor-lock. When you top-10 an Ironman on 12 hours/week training, be sure and let me know, okay?

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"What's good for me ain't necessarily good for the weak-minded."