What's your swim / run combo? Not just IM, but 500SCY and 5K?

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24 Hour World TT Champs-American record holder
Fat Bike Worlds - Race Director
Insta: chris.s.apex

I don't have data from last year for those distances. I didn't run an open 5k and I did a couple of 500 TT's in the pool but I swim in a SCM pool.

In my qualifying IM I swam 59 and ran 3:22.

I can give estimates. I think 5k I could go 17:30 and I think that I could swim 5:30 when in peak condition. But I actually kind of suck at long distance.

Wow....impressively balanced age grouper that can swim very well!

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24 Hour World TT Champs-American record holder
Fat Bike Worlds - Race Director
Insta: chris.s.apex

Thanks for the compliment.

It kind of sucks spending the next 5+ hours after T1 being passed, but I guess that is where one needs to implement some mental resiliency and thank goodness that it is a triathlon.

from my attendance at HS XC meets I'd agree with Eric.. 'most' are running over 20min, not 18min. Certainly I didn't break 20min for 5k until after HS, although did get down to 15:50 eventually.

I don't know what OP means by 'engine size'. I used to to think that endurance sports were entirely trainable, but since then research has showed that just as some people have innate gifts for endurance sports, others have innate training responsiveness, and some people do not respond to training at all.

http://www.sportsscientists.com/...hours-and-the-genes/
" is success genetics or training? It’s both. In fact, it’s 100% genetic, and 100% training."

also
http://www.setantacollege.com/...e%20to%20regular.pdf
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19691366

Running 15:50 is smoking in my opinion.

Out of 5A schools in Colorado 489 males went under 19 minutes (18:XX). This is out of 1000 runners listed. That seems to be close to 50th percentile. In 2A 80/200 went under 19 minutes.

http://www.athletic.net/...ist.aspx?DivID=23672

In NY 2187 kids ran under 19 minutes.

http://www.athletic.net/...ist.aspx?DivID=24706

So what is the definition of mediocre?

But how many total kids ran XC in NY and CO??? We need those numbers to put the sub-19 numbers in perspective:)

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

interesting list of x-c results.. for 4A 50th percentile is 19:47. I guess 5A is faster than the meets I see..
Also, it looks like the lists are curtailed after 10 pages. For the US as a whole, the slowest time shown is 15:54..
http://www.athletic.net/...ist.aspx?DivID=23342
So we can't say much about the slower runners from these results.

You would also need to know how many were training to their maximal potential.

They do continue after 10 pages you just have to keep hitting next.

1624 males athletes went under 20 minutes in Colorado in 2013 in the 5A Division.

They have 2900 athletes listed for 5A so I guess 18 minutes is top 15% and sub 20 is top 56%, but I'll stand by my assertion that a number of these athletes were not training to their maximal potential. Imagine what the times would have been if all they did in their life is focus on running, nutrition, and recovery.

Now imagine if you took every 30-50 year old triathlete and they focused on nothing but training, nutrition, and recovery. I think that the majority would be pretty damn quick. Unfortunately life gets in the way. I am dedicated as hell and there is no way I could hit over 800 hours a year for 5-7 years with my current life balance. I put in 613 hours in 2013 and it was a struggle.

Definitely agree. I personally did a lot of volume from age 14-25. Other than a few periods of downtime due to injuries I've been pretty consistent with maintaining at least a decent level of fitness into my early 40s. That allows me to ramp up a couple months before an event and do relatively well. I carry a little more weight than before and don't look particularly fast but usually can be relatively competitive at small local events.

A few guys I occasionally ride with get frustrated that they put up slower splits when they know I don't train much. They weren't around 15-25 yrs ago when I was building that base. It's hard to catch up if you start in your late 30s.


Experience in racing is huge too. More than once I've won my age group or been on the podium due to smart equipment choices, pacing and fast transitions. In fact two years ago I won my age group in a sprint tri with slower splits in all three disciplines than 2nd/3rd but had a total transition time more than 1:30 faster.

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Formerly DrD

True, prob very few were were close to their true potential. I think that, IF the average male in his 20s dedicated his life to running, he prob could run under 19 for 5K, maybe 18:40 which is right at 6:00/mi avg. Similarly, I think that same guy could prob get down to 2:10-ish for an accurately measured Oly dist tri. I'd put those two numbers out there as what say 80% of the male population could do if they set their full attention to it.

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

4.5 w/kg and sub 18 are easier than a KQ? Huh....guess I screwed the pooch on that one.

Depends on the age group.

I know 2x folks in the 45+ age range who are AG winners at qualifiers who don't come close to those.


I know several guys in the 25-39 age range, who range from AG winners to just barely qualified. Some exceed those by a lot, others (myself included) not so much.

I would be very surprised if that were true. To be clear, that strikes me as high, not low.

ETA: Sorry.. looks like many already addressed this.

I am glad you brought it back up because I still maintain that to be true. Most on the bubble have to ride around 5:20 to 5:30 and probably faster (unless they are going to run a sub 3:20 of the bike). That seems like 200 watts for a typically aero 150 lbs.

At a 268 watts FTP 200 watts would be 75%. 268watts/68kg = 3.94 watts

So how am I way off on the FTP numbers?

Edit: I just looked at Couer d Alene and Lake Placid, 2 course that are not speed fests, and no one in the top 8 rode slower than a 5:25.

Keep in mind that races with hilly bike courses are self selecting towards athletes with higher W/kg versus heavier athletes with a higher top end FTP.

If you look at flatter races, I suspect you'll see more people with 3.5/3.8 W/kg averages because of overall power output being less impacted by climbing efficiency. I'd also be willing to go along with DD(since I'm guessing this is how he feels) and assume that the average for KQ bubble athletes is closer to that 3.5 W/kg range overall. Remember, there are a lot of Fast running Fish out there who have just enough power on the bike (and are light enough) to hold their early swim advantage until they can get back to the run and start working again.

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Proud member of the GUCrew
Twitter: @tripigeon Blog: Ironpigeon.com
Thoughts on AG sponsorships / community involvement: http://bit.ly/1dQlVDy

You guys posting XC results also realize that XC courses are not always accurate.

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24 Hour World TT Champs-American record holder
Fat Bike Worlds - Race Director
Insta: chris.s.apex

I've followed this thread with some intrigue over the last day or two, if I'm honest, mostly to establish what I might be able to realistically achieve in the world of triathlon and the personal targets which I have sent myself. Within the community, there is (understandably) a train of thought that those 'lifetime' endurance athletes, will achieve more / have bigger numbers / KQ over the rest of us. I am not one of these (Lifetime athletes that is). This could prove disheartening for a lot of us 'adult onset' triathletes... however.... based on the little (or lot?) that I have learnt in the last 3 years, hard work goes along way in this sport, not being a natural at sport I do alright. Some as mentioned above, got a lot of that hard work done early doors, but us adult onsetters can see steep improvements in performance in the first few years, which is extremely rewarding, volume accounted for a lot of my improvement in 2013. There are a couple of races I continually go back too to see how I have improved, and if I have reached my ceiling, not happened yet and I hope with the knowledge I gain, hard work I put in, some luck with injuries, an understanding family I can reach the goals I have set myself...

Anyhow, this year, I'm hoping my ceiling wont stop me from hitting 4w/kg, sub 19 5k & swim 400m in.... (ummm, well, this one might need some work).... (Just for the record pushing 34yo, 2014 will be 4th year doing tris,154lbs last season, 178cm tall, FTP of 252 last season, no notable running, cycling and swimming throughout 20s only regular football [soccer])

Good debate... carry on... :)

Thanks for looking that up, you're not nearly as lazy as me. Generally I'd guess FTP for these riders would be in the mid to high 3s which, to me, is a long way away from low to mid 4s in terms of the training required to get there. I'd also guess (a total guess) that most of these racers are heavier than 150 lbs as guys at the top end tend to be on the tall side.

My FTP last year was 4.315 watts/kg. My biking was top 20 in my AG by holding 75% of my FTP. Therefore, there were 19 guys that could ride faster than me. I was fortunate enough that I had a swim/run combo that put me in front of 12 of them at the end of the day. I will also assure you that while I may not be the most aero I am by no means a slouch.

Do you know what your CdA is?

I'm 53 year old. I never swam in school and really only got into swimming, for tris, when I was early 30's. I focussed almost entirely on techique and endurance, as I am pretty IM focussed. That said, about 4 years ago, when being more focussed on speed, I got my 400m time down to 5:31. Yeah, I was pretty shot at the end of that, but could routinely got sub 5:40 without too much distress at the end.

500yards is 457.2 metres. So, my 500scy time would be about 6:08 or so. Even in my current fatness/fitness, I could come pretty close to 6:30/500m scy.

You don't have to be an ex-collegiate swimmer to go sub 6:30. You DO have to stop being self limiting tho' :-)

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TriDork

"Happiness is a myth. All you can hope for is to get laid once in a while, drunk once in a while and to eat chocolate every day"

Well, I don't think you are way off, but you do seem a bit pessimistic about what kind of power is needed to go 5:20. For comparison, I went 2:28 at timberman (certainly not pancake flat) on about 190W. I'm about 143 lbs and that course is about 1 mile short, but still.

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When I channel my hate to productive, I don't find it hard to impress

Are your 400 m times SCM or LCM???

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"Anyone can be who they want to be IF they have the HUNGER and the DRIVE."

I swim in a 25metre pool. That's SCM right? While the pool makes a difference, it doesn't make 22 seconds difference over that sort of distance. Besides, all I was trying to illustrate was that 6:30 per 500yards (457.2 metres) isn't actually that fast, and it certainly isn't necessary to be a 'swimmer'. Yeah, it's reasonable, but not fast.
I just wish I could maintain that speed for the bike or the run. I run SO badly, that recently in the Rotorua 1/2 IM, I seriously considered running down to the lake from the lookout, and swimming back to the finish line, rather than running the last 3km. At that point, I could certainly swim faster than I was walking! LOL

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TriDork

"Happiness is a myth. All you can hope for is to get laid once in a while, drunk once in a while and to eat chocolate every day"