Maybe I had an outlier school but middle of the road JV was 19-20 on a XC course. Which is 18's-19's on the road. The fastest guys on a cross country course went 15-16. All of these times were at altitude. Slowest kids were 25's.

For giggles, I looked up the NY State Cross Country Championships for 2013.

The fastest guy in the entire state went 15:06. The boy who won the Class B was 15:16. C and D runners were in the 15:40s. So, what I hear you saying is that the fast guys on your team were as good as or better than the top runners in the entire state of NY.

You might think all those MOPer M30-40 guys in the local HIM triathlons are just terrible at training, but it's not true. I've seen quite a few of them now with coaches, regular attendance at the weekly speedwork sessions where they run all-out, and keep solid logs of their 12+hr per week training. These guys still run 23+ minute open 5ks, and many (most) of them will NEVER run 18:xx 5ks, even with professional volume, even if some of them will be able to with that kind of training.

My average heart rate for a mid 36 10k averaged 174 bpm with a max of 182 at the age of 41.

I get some of the swim and bike estimates, but some of the run ones have me scratching my head.

I don't mean to call you out by quoting you, this just happened to cover me.

I ran under 200miles all 2013 which included 2 70.3s.. I'm 33, hate running, 209lbs as of this morning and can do a sub 23min stand alone 5k if uncared to try. I've done a 23.xx 5k as part of a personal 10k as well as a few times after a 2+ mile swim.

It is really hard for me to imagine that someone doing 30mpw, is my age, and 180lbs would struggle to beat that. I mean I also personally know I'll never do a 16min 5k (just don't care enough about running to put that effort in) but I also saw no reason I couldn't get down to an 18.xx at 180lbs and even a halfassed attempt at getting some miles in.

I can do a 6:30 500yards, probably meter if I tried don't feel like estimating.
I don't know my actual w/kg since I have no real power source. I don't see why once down to 180 I won't be over 3.75.


Granted maybe I'm not thinking about the majority in the same way, I took this to mean the limits of the majority of people who put in the effort not the limits of the genrsl majority of people.

I don't think I have seen much higher than 185-187 and my resting HR is about 45-48 bpm.

I'd bet that for most men on the bubble for KQ between 35-44 are at between 4-4.5 watts/kg

Your opinions merely reflect your self-biased view of the world. YOUR view of it given your isolated results are essentially meaningless to draw conclusions from.

Go to any triclub, just as I have, and take a look at who's doing what and how fast. There will be more than a handful of serious triathletes, complete with hired coaches writing their workouts, who are very dedicated to training, yet are nowhere near those 'easy' times you suggest. And yes, in the M30-40 division where there's no physical limiter otherwise.

There are TWO halves of the bell curve for genetics for sports. It's easy and erroneous to think everyone can do what you can do when you're in the upper part of the curve. I made the same mistake with music - for nearly 12 years, I mistakenly assumed everyone around me could do what I was doing in violin, and just wasn't practicing enough. Then I hit the level of what would be considered a competent professional violinist in my later youth and saw how insanely hard some of my peers were working - for markedly less results. This was at a top music conservatory as well, so no slacking there.

Have you done an all-out sprint at end of say a hard 2-mi run to see where you come out??? And I mean all, all-out to where you are absolutely gasping for breath at end. Also, you need to be fairly rested to be able to truly hit your "top end". Sorry, I'm sure I'm preaching to the choir with you, but just in case:)

Not any time recently so it could be higher but not a lot higher.

I'l take that bet, how much do you want to lose?

No kidding. It is a bad estimate but an FTP of 4.0 w/kg is going to put you well under 58:00 in an Oly triathlon (flattish, accuritishly measured). In other words - basically 1/1000 age grouper.

I have heard in the past (sorry can't find citation) that the average male cyclist is capable of an FTP of 250 watts, and I think this seems reasonable. Without training most people would work hard to hold over 150 (mostly due to having a hard time riding for an hour straight) and they rapidly progress over 200, but 250 is a ceiling for many. Among competitive people you have a slice of the population who have self selected for their innate ability, so you tend to hear of averages closer to the 275-325 area.