I think if they start canceling a string of races they may try to kick the season off with one of the bigger or more scenic events to have more hoopla around it. If I had to guess it would be 70.3 Mont Tremblant (overly hopefull), or 70.3 Muskoka since that race is already sold out.

I just really wish they would give more direction further out. It would be nice if we could officially start changing our training and travel plans sooner than later, especially for those of us with races that are on the edge (70.3 Madison June 14th).

I'm hoping Musselman is still on for July 19th in upstate NY. Was really looking forward to that one this year.

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Strava

Hopefully Santa Rosa is run. Being the last year and all. That's a great race.

I think everyone needs to start realizing we are probably not having a 2020 season. Certainly not anything before September or October if at all.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I don’t disagree at all and think you are correct (opinion based on my limited perception). If you are correct, shouldn’t Ironman/ the rd’s be canceling the races? In other words, shouldn’t cooler heads prevail and the early summer race directors just come out and say.

“ At best, we may be able to put this race on. However even if the race is on, it is likely that you all will be emerging from restrictions at the same time and not prepared to race. To the end of keeping things in perspective we will see you (in the late fall / next year).”

Sorry- a little venting on my end.

That’s exactly what should be happening.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

I have been speaking with some of the world’s leading public health and health policy experts over last few days (as part of my job). Most seem to think infections will plateau over next 8-10 weeks and thing should gradually return to “a new normal” thereafter. Given the data that’s been shared with me, I think we will see late summer races happening. I actually think we’re more likely to get some races in July/Aug but a second wave of cancellations in Oct/Nov as a second wave of COVID is likely to occur. But who knows.... this situation is unprecedented in our lifetimes.

I was planning on signing up for Santa Rosa but am holding off on registering until I know if it's going to take place. Anyone know if it's likely to sell out?

What? IM website says you can still register for FL 70.3 April 19th! :-)

Ill agree with Sept or so as next 3 months are a wreck. IM will have to decide how to deal with some people still not likely able to get to races or will that change peoples minds doing a 70.3 or 140.6 with smaller number of racers?

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Banger

I'm really hoping my mid July XTERRA doesn't get cancelled. I feel like it's right on the bubble

Wanda is too concerned about paying off their debt payments than communicating to their athletes.

I have still yet to hear directly from RNR that RNR DC Marathon has been cancelled. I had to go to the webage to find out on my own, no email, no social, nothing.

At the same point, under CDC current 'rules' IMSTG will 100% be cancelled/ post poined; yet IM has not communciating anything.

IM needs to work on their communication to ALL of its atheltes. A joke.

That’s sort of my point. Assuming a midimay or early June return to relatively normal life, it does not seem realistic to hold an Ironman (or half) two weeks later. Just one example would be swim fitness.

Hopefully by Oct-Dec enough people have gotten exposes and developed immunity to low grade attacks of this during the summer that the transmission rate drops even if it continues to be just as deadly (whatever that mean, I still think my car is way more deadly based on numbers). What are you expert colleagues thinking?

Holding onto the slightest hope that Augusta 70.3 will still happen at the end of September. I wouldn’t bet any money on it though as I fear you are ultimately correct.

Add in the likelihood of a vaccine to be out in late spring-ish, and that brings much of the second half of the season back into play.

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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
Sponsors: SciCon | | Every Man Jack

Vaccine is 12-18 months away. So if you’re referring to second half of 2021 then I agree with you.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Are you a scientist who works in the CDC or WHO? If not, I suggest you step back a bit.

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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
Sponsors: SciCon | | Every Man Jack

Yeah I’ve already signed up for the race, paid for the hotel, and am just hoping for the chance to compete for an AG 70.3 WC Utah slot at Augusta!

I just had a 26.2 cancelled the Thursday before the 3/15 race and Augusta is next on my calendar.

Late September seems possible!! Fingers crossed ....

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https://www.strava.com/...tes/zachary_mckinney

I can read a fucking article with statements from folks at the CDC, NIH, and WHO. Not a one mentions a tested, vetted, approved and commercially available vaccine coming in less than 12 months.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Wow, a bit angry huh. No one said you could not read, but your absolute perfect knowledge of the future belies an expert, hence my question. Anyone who has thinks they know the duration or who things will turn out with this pandemic are really kidding themselves. Please consider this when you make your claims.

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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
Sponsors: SciCon | | Every Man Jack

Huh? I didn’t make any claims. I was simply referring to what I’ve read coming from respected infectious disease experts. You’re the one making wild ass claims that a vaccine is coming out any day now. So Google “coronavirus vaccine” and then go fuck yourself.

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Favorite Gear: Dimond | Cadex | Desoto Sport | Hoka One One

Seriously, would actually say that to my face? I don't understand the vitriol. Nothing you said was quoted from any known source, you just stated absolute knowledge, like most other social media experts. If you are reading CDC/WHO updates, that is fantastic and I am glad for it, but your position here on this thread does not suggest that. I am happy to leave this here, and go back to theorising about what races will run and what will not...

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"Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go." T.S. Elliot | Cycle2Tri.com
Sponsors: SciCon | | Every Man Jack

US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) director Dr Anthony Fauci told the US House of Representatives’ Oversight and Reform Committee on 11 March: “With regard to vaccines, we were able to go very quickly from understanding the virus and its genetic sequence… to actually develop a vaccine. However, in the next four weeks or so, we will go into Phase I trials – getting it into Phase I in a month is the quickest that anyone has ever done in the history of vaccinology.
“So we go into Phase I, it will take around three months to determine if it is safe, then you go into…Phase II to determine if it works. Since this is vaccine, you don’t want to give it to normal healthy people with the possibility that it will hurt them or that it will not work. So [this] phase is critical [and] will take another eight months or so.”
“So when you’ve heard me say that we would not have a vaccine that will be ready to start to deploy for a year to a year and half; that is the time frame. Anyone who thinks they can move more quickly than that, I believe would be cutting corners that would be detrimental.”

To be fair, you are pretty consistent on every single thread about coronavirus claiming what's going to happen - no races in 2020. You may be right. You could very well be wrong.

Here's what no one on this board can really say - that they know what's going to happen. Because none of the respected disease experts you're reading know what the hell's going to happen. They know models and history of pandemics. But they don't know what society is going to do in the next 3-9 months.

Best of luck to you all.