r0bh wrote:
Brownlees are not the favourites in the men's race IMHO, I'd be looking to Murray, Schoeman or one of the young Aussies.
The Bs will need to (and of course are perfectly capable of!) get away on the bike and have a bit of a lead at T2 to be in with a shout IMHO
I think the sprint might be a good choice for the CWG until more countries have developed their Tri programs. Historically the CWG (like the olympics for that matter) have had some of the highest lap out percentages of any ITU Elite races (on one hand you have the Brownlee, Duffy, Snowsill types, and on the other hand, you have countries who's team would compare to front-middle of the pack age groupers from the stronger countries, so many got lapped out on the bike and never made it to the run)... With the sprint, there's a better chance that more of those athletes will survive the bike without getting lapped and be able to complete the run...
I like Richard Murray, but I suspect that it'll be tough in this format for him to have a solid shot at the podium. Unless he nails the swim and gets out within 10seconds of the Brownlees, I suspect you'll have a lead group with the likes of the Brownlees, Schoeman, Matt Hauser, and possibly Mislawchuk or Sharpe. If that group gets a gap, I'm not sure there's enough firepower with enough motivation in the chase pack to help Murray bring back the gap, and if the gap is over 30sec at T2, I can't see him running down the Brownlees... He'd have a good battle with Birtwhistle to maybe have a shot at the bronze trying to nab Schoeman or the Canadians (I suspect they will be able to chase down Hauser).
In the ladies race, I suspect we'll have a Duffy/Learmonth/Coldwell lead group off the swim, and I'd guess the podium to have some combo of Duffy, Gentle, Learmonth (wildcards being Jo Brown, if she's recovered from the broken shoulder in Abu Dhabi, Non Stanford and Charlotte McShane)