Obviously, it's not part of a sustainable business model but a reaction to a difficult situation. Forecasting is not an exact science and unforeseeable events sometime conspire to build more than they can sell in year.

So, my buddy and I went to our lbs store this morning to order our P2s. After much discussion about the program and the fact that it was sort of "in limbo", he said the best we could do was give it a shot. The bikes are paid for and the order will be placed tomorrow morning. I left there feeling about 75% on the side that it wasn't going to work out (from Cervelo and not necessarily the lbs side of things), but then a Twitter exchange happened...

I said "Me and my friend ordered 2 Cervelo P2s. Just have to wait and see if they will honer the Share the Ride deal. Come on @cervelo! #nervous

SECONDS later I got a response - "If you and your dealer followed the guidelines, don't be nervous - just excited! Enjoy your new rides."

Interesting. After that simple Tweet, I'm 75% it will happen. I won't feel good about this until I have that sucker home. ;-)

We had kind of the same thing from our LBS, we got home and found what we wanted for almost $800 less than our LBS had told us. a P2 & P3 $4100 ish for both.

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#WeAreTheForge #BlackGunsMatter

"Look, will you guys at leats accept that you are a bunch of dumb asses and just trust me on this one? Please?" BarryP 7/30/2012

P2 should be $1,800 and p3 should be $2,350. Smokin for those prices!

This firesale also puts extreme downward pressure on the resale value of every existing Cervelo owner that paid at full retail or even anything above wholesale. It's similar to an identical house to yours being foreclosed on your street- your new appraisal and what someone is willing to offer you for your home has declined substantially- not fun when you want or need to sell. Anyway- the program appears good for Cervelo equity holders that want to monetize their business and those consumers actually taking advantage of the sale. Existing C bike owners (and my household owns 3 Cervelos)- has just lost equity, a lot of equity. Thank you Cervelo (actually it is no thank you Cervelo)- I really don't appreciate the Christmas present of nearly another 3k being sucked from my wallet, even though I didn't even walk into one of your dealers to 'give away' that money. Why pay a fellow ST $2000 or ebayer for a slightly used P2 without warranty, when you can get a new one for $1400... so will those slightly used P2s now be worth sub $1k? Business decisions always have unintended consequences, that sometimes are never thought about or thought thoroughly through.

Companies have sales all the time that does not impact their day-to-day value on products. It does not affect the long-term values in the resale market. The sale is not the new pricing, so once it ends, the market will return to "normal", or something close to it.

Sales do not affect long term value, other than potentially increasing market supply at a later date. But that impact is a long way from being felt, if at all.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

apparently folks in the classifieds do not all think so, case in point, a brand new R3 with Rival is currently msrp 3150 on cervelo site, before 1k discount with buddy. a slightly used one is listed for 4k????

Indeed.

In the fall of 2012, what will a used R3 be worth?



On the flip side though, prices could go back up. Think about this: if the cost for a cervelo goes down resulting in a larger saturation of the market, then basic economics would suggest that the supply is high and demand is low thus driving used prices lower. However, is it possible that more cervelos on the market could in the long run be good for used resale? If there is greater saturation in a quickly expanding market, then it is possible that the demand for a cervelo could continue to rise exponentially as more people are exposed to the product. In the tri world, cervelos rule (as we've seen at kona). Not so much in the road bike world. It seems Trek and Spec have that on lock in the US. What if cervelo's became more of a household brand, thus keeping the used prices at the same levels they were a few months ago? After all, prices aren't going to remain this low for retail. Everything resets Feb 1.

Thats my hopeful theory. We'll see what actually happens...

I modified my post that you quoted based on looking more thoroughly at pricing history of successful ebay sales in the used market. Time will tell how much this will truly impact the C brand and their resale value- which is what I care about, when I'd like to upgrade to something new.

I also think that buying a bike based on potential resale value is kinda silly. Buy the bike that is right for you (fit, appeal, etc) and use it as what it is - a tool. Resale has never once been a consideration for me.

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Chicago Cubs - 2016 WORLD SERIES Champions!!!!

"If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced patriots to prevent its ruin." - Samuel Adams

those classifieds will sit unsold. if you do a ebay search of p2 or p3 and check out completed listings- you will see a lot of bikes that went unsold with zero bids. when they go to relist the bikes- they will be in for a rude awakening that their bike might have fetched 1k more 3 weeks ago on ebay.

Since we happen to own multiple C bikes that spec out to 10k plus at msrp- I definitely consider resale value at the point of purchase. Frankly, most hobby items that we've purchased, resale value is thought about at the purchase point.

picked up a P3 Dura Ace for $2375 and S3 Ultegra for $2500....ridiculous!

Nice.

Yesterday I got confirmation from our LBS that we WILL get 2 P2s as part of the "share the ride" deal and they won't even be delivered to the store until the first week of Feb (after the 1/31 deadline). I was told that they were ordered and would be in the first week of Feb... my heart dropped a bit... and then he said that we would still get the $2K off. Sweet.

They will be rewarded with much more of our business over the following years than if they wouldn't have participated!

I still won't believe it until I'm sitting on it getting fitted. ;-)

While it appears to do the same thing, it would likely cause Cervelo some cash flow issues. They're not "rebating" the shop with cash, they're reimbursing with inventory that has a sunk cost already. The actual cash discount ends being the dealer, not Cervelo, which may explain the sliding scale of reactions in different shops.

Retrospectively, Cervelo could have done a better job in prepping the dealers (IMO). The timing of the PON deal and this deal seems more "firesale" than goodwill. Time will tell. If a dealer was sitting on extra inventory this time of year, it could be a good thing.

IMHO, this is the biggest problem with this deal.

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Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.