What shoes are you running in?

Because the right shoe may have 4 minutes in it.

Go for it. It may a stretch, but based on your 1/2 splits, I think you are faster than a 1:27 and a 3:00 is reasonable. If your race has a 3:00 pace group, shut off your head and just latch on.

The easist way is to loose weight. 4-5 kgs will help a lot

Assuming conditions and your equipment are identical between the half and full, I don't think you're going to gain 4 minutes. I've always found the 2xHM time+10 minutes formula being a little aggressive for me, but I know that formula works for a lot of people.

You're probably in the 3:02 - 3:10 category depending on how well you can handle the last 10k of the race. I would guess closer to 3:10 given it's your first marathon. I'd probably go out at 7:02 and try to hold 7:02-7:05 for the first 18 miles. If I was feeling good, I'd start trying to run at 6:50-7:00, and if I'm feeling bad, just try to hold that pace.

You are asking if you can go 4 minutes faster than a projected finish time? Not a PR that you have completed in the past? If this is your first marathon I wouldn't assume you can finish in X time just because a calculator says so. Your half marathon proves you are on a great track. Finishing with a lot left in the tank is an even better indicator for a marathon.

What does your training plan call for on these coming long runs? Easy zone 2 pace or including faster running at goal pace? I would use those as a gauge of what you can do on race day. You are on the right track, just drop the focus on projected race times from a calculator. Instead look at your completed long runs in training combined with the half marathon result. Good luck!

The best thing you could do, I think, is not overcook your training and get injured in the next 6 weeks.

The next best thing I'd suggest would be nutrition. When I was young, I had really fast 1/2 marathons; I didn't get break-through marathon times and run what I was capable of until I nailed my nutrition. For me, that meant practicing 6-milers at goal marathon pace, practicing by trial and error eating as much as my digestion could handle, which for me was 1/2 a clif blok gummie every 15 minutes starting 10 seconds before the gun. Getting my nutrition right meant I avoided a bonk, which was a problem for me in my first couple marathons. It sucks to be on PR time through mile 21 and then hit the wall. Practice nutrition so you can hold pace the last 10k. That could easily be a 4-minute difference.

X2. Some folks are diesel engines and can hold HMx2+ 5-7 minutes, some struggle with +10 minutes.

Another great benchmark workout done on untapered legs and in the middle of a training block: 10 miles easy but on the high end of easy, then 4 miles at target marathon pace, 2 miles easy, 4 miles again at target marathon pace, workout should be done continuously without any breaks. If you can hold pace during the last section after 16 miles on your feet, you have a reasonable chance to aim for that after a good taper. If you struggle with the pace, then you might want to consider dialing in an easier pace on race day. A variation is (riskier if you are injury prone) 4 miles easy, 10 miles at pace, 4 miles easy, 2 miles at pace.

Not even that much weight.
For a small 50 kgs person, 1 kgs is about 2 minutes.

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Kevin

What do the courses look like in elevation and weather? If you're in the northern hemisphere it's probably going to be a fair bit cooler in 6 weeks than it it now. Could be 4+ min there depending on specifics. Likewise for hills.

When you do you long runs they should end up being about the same total time as your marathon. Take stock of how you're feeling at the end of those and how your HR is behaving. Toss in a couple miles at and faster than MP at the end of those and see how it feels.

The VDOT numbers are tough to put a ton of stock in. A guy running 25mpw is going to drop off a lot more than someone running 100mpw even if they have the same HM.

First this is not 'gaining' 4 minutes: it's choosing to aim for 4 minutes faster than the time predicted from your half.
Second, I'd say 'yes': go for it: at 6:50 pace, and try to team up with others heading for sub 3.
Finally, ditch all but one run more than 15 miles in the 30 day run up. You're gaining nothing and risk wearing yourself down to the detriment of the runs on preceding and succeeding days, and general wear and tear. Confident, fresh and eager at the line.
I appreciate that there are other schools of thought on this.

nike vaporfly 2

not sure i can healthily lose 10 lbs in 6 weeks.

5 lbs maybe

The half marathon weather was nearly perfect. It got warm later in the day but we were done running by then.

Half was in chicago area, full is in Indianapolis, so hopefully weather will be right at end of October. (likely cooler then the half even)

Forgot to mention that the full is even flatter than the half. Nearly the same amount of elevation in both.

Do your 5k/10k PBs indicate sub-3 shape? 1:27-flat is about the upper limit for a sub-3 attempt. A lot of first timers need something closer to 1:25 to get it done, sometimes even a touch faster. But I tend to think doubling your half & adding 6 minutes should be the marathon A goal for most people. You're really not going to gain much more fitness in the next 6 weeks. You don't have time to improve your speed. But you can continue to log good mileage and get in some good long runs w./ GMP mixed in. No reason not to target 6:45-6:50 pace in those workouts and see how you're feeling. In that 3-5 weeks out range I would do something like 22 miles, going 10 E, 10 @ GMP (6:45-6:50), 2 E. If you do that in a normal training week (no taper going in) & it doesn't feel like a race effort you can take some confidence heading into the marathon. As far as the race goes, mile 1 should be a few seconds slower than 3hr pace and then settle into 3hr pace by 5k. It could be a big mistake to get carried away with some 6:30s/40s too early in the race. It could turn a 2:59-3:02 into a 3:10. & this is if you have a good weather day. Just be sensible if race day conditions are less than ideal. It's very likely that a 3:05ish could be worth a 2:59 if you get a dew point around 60 or higher.

Upcoming long runs:

19 miles as 9 easy, 8 at marathon pace, 2 easy

22 miles easy - just getting to 3:10-3:15 total run time

20 miles as 9 easy, 9 at marathon pace, 2 easy

workouts just listed as you typed your response.

What do you mean by the below statement?

It's very likely that a 3:05ish could be worth a 2:59 if you get a dew point around 60 or higher.

The easiest thing to do, lose some weight !

I’ll go ahead and say don’t just do 22 miles easy in that long run. You’ll learn nothing from it with how your body responds to running at MP tired and how you feel doing those miles at your goal pace. I’d say keep your structure of the other long runs and do 10 miles at goal pace with your race shoes and see what your pace is. If 10 miles feels good at that pace then you should be good in the race.

I’ve learned after many marathons that the pace I run in my long runs at MP is similar to the actual race because you’ll be fresh so those paces should feel easy. But the first marathon is a good mental test too. But assuming you’re averaging 50+ miles and doing some tempo work I bet you’ll be good.

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Why not over the next 2 long runs try a 7:00 pace and work down to 6:55 or start at 6:55 and work your way down to a 6:50ish? Throw in a few midweek tempos at 6:40ish and see how you feel. If all is good, go for it on race day.

BQ goal?

Thats intersting because I've heard from a few people that its good to run total time you anticipate running marathon in. I assume the learning is running for that length of time.

22 at 8:30-8:45 gets me 3:10 on my feet. so easy pace but not super easy.

Yes, those are definitely part of the plan. Trying those paces in the long runs. Tomorrow's run is 2 wu, 5x1 mile at 10K, 2 cd.

I also have a 2 wu, 8 at MP (but faster each 2 miles), 2 cd.

BQ time for my age group is 3:20 so unless I overcook it, I should get there.

Thanks!

It's why I asked the question.

I recently bought a super shoe (well almost super shoe, on sale) and it made a better than 2 min difference in a 10k. And I'm on the downhill side of life.
I'm not a fast runner and neither is the OP, although 3 hours is way better than anything I can do, there are 70 year old's that go sub 3 (and some don't cheat).
But that 2 mins plus would be an easy 8 minutes in a marathon and the bonus is supposed to be that they give a lot more back to the runners legs at the end, so "the wall" may be just over the finish line now.

Keeping my fingers crossed. Trying to break 3 hours in your marathon debut is ballsy and probably a little silly. It's also exactly what I'm thinking of doing, although I have a long way to go before it makes sense to even try (89' in a super flat half under near-ideal conditions so far).

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"FTP is a bit 2015, don't you think?" - Gustav Iden