Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data?

Aug 4, 14 5:45

Post #1 of 37 (6463 views)

I think I might have an outside shot of KQing but I think it really depends on who shows up, race conditions, etc. IM Maryland has 30 slots and IM Louisville at 50 slots.
Here is my latest data as of this AM:
6'2" 180lbs 5th year in the sport. Age Group: 35-39 male 6 HIMs (PB=4:42), 2 IMs but completed 3 years ago not going in fit or trained properly (PB=10:35).
Open Marathon: 2:57
5k=17:59
FTP=295
2.4mile open water swim (no wetsuit):1:10 with wetsuit 1:00
CTL (training peaks): 139(just bike and run)
Last week training: 28:30 hrs (Bike=350 miles Swim=12000y run=53.5mi)
Averages last 8 weeks: Bike=295 miles, Swim=12,000yards, run=52miles

I'm kind of leaning towards Louisville just because it has more slots and less people show up for this race to KQ. But the heat and hilly bike is my limiter. IM Maryland seems like a good race because its flat but there are less slots. Thoughts?

Last edited by: trimac2: Aug 4, 14 6:01

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [trimac2] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 5:59

Post #2 of 37 (6436 views)

Which AG?

Pink? Maybe. Maybe not. You decide.

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [japarker24] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 6:00

Post #3 of 37 (6431 views)

japarker24 wrote:

Which AG?

Sorry this would help: 35-39 male

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [trimac2] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 6:07

Post #4 of 37 (6410 views)

What were you doing volume-wise when you weren't fit/training properly? 10:35 isn't anything to sneeze at. 4:42 doesn't suggest an ability to go a lot faster though if you did that 4:42 with current fitness

Me: https://carnivoreendurance.blogspot.com/...ever-comes-next.html

Latest: Colorectal Cancer is in the News Again. Don't Blame Red Meat
https://carnivoreendurance.blogspot.com/...news-again-dont.html

Last edited by: Birdmantris: Aug 4, 14 6:09

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [Birdmantris] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 6:08

Post #5 of 37 (6404 views)

Birdmantris wrote:

What were you doing volume-wise when you weren't fit/training properly? 10:35 isn't anything to sneeze at.

Probably average 16 hrs a week....all zone 2 and hardly any running because I was injured going in.

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [trimac2] [ In reply to ]

blueraider_mike

Aug 4, 14 6:10

Post #6 of 37 (6395 views)

I am not a KQ so take my advice with a grain of salt....I would think Maryland would be the better option because you could manage your output easier on the bike and then use your run strength to make it. But keep in mind it could be hot, it could be very windy in MD. Regardless you have solid volume in the bank, I think you would have a good shot at either course.

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [trimac2] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 6:13

Post #7 of 37 (6385 views)

Edited the above post but not in time....was the 4:42 done with fairly current fitness? You'd probably need faster half speed than that.

Piece of advice in regards to the heat (from someone who exploded at Eagleman). Start getting in the sauna if you have access. I couldn't do 10 minutes in there when i started but can hit 45 now and it honestly takes a LOT of heat/humidity for me to notice anymore.

Me: https://carnivoreendurance.blogspot.com/...ever-comes-next.html

Latest: Colorectal Cancer is in the News Again. Don't Blame Red Meat
https://carnivoreendurance.blogspot.com/...news-again-dont.html

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [trimac2] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 6:19

Post #8 of 37 (6355 views)

At a 4:42 HIM, unless you get a lot stronger going longer, you're on the outside looking in. If I was to give KQ for 35-39 a minimum 70.3 qualifying time, it would be around 4:30 on a faster course. You'll need a lot of luck if your not under 10 hours at Louisville. I'm don't know the Maryland course and it's the first year and only 30 slots, so it's a huge gamble in my mind. I would want to be closer to 9:50 to be "safe" at Louisville. 4th through 6th were only 3 minutes apart last year... not that any of them probably knew that since it's a rolling start. If you're on the bubble, I think if your a strong swimmer, a rolling start is much better. IF your a strong runner, it's worse....you want a wave or mass start so can literally run them down. That's easier than chasing a clock if you only 2-4 minutes apart.

TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [trimac2] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 6:23

Post #9 of 37 (6344 views)

There are 50 spots for Kona 2014 at Louisville 2300+ athletes

There are 30 spots for Kona 2015 at Maryland 1500+ athletes

All I Wanted Was A Pepsi, Just One Pepsi

Team Zoot, Team Zoot Mid-Atlantic

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [motoguy128] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 6:42

Post #10 of 37 (6290 views)

motoguy128 wrote:

At a 4:42 HIM, unless you get a lot stronger going longer, you're on the outside looking in. If I was to give KQ for 35-39 a minimum 70.3 qualifying time, it would be around 4:30 on a faster course. You'll need a lot of luck if your not under 10 hours at Louisville. I'm don't know the Maryland course and it's the first year and only 30 slots, so it's a huge gamble in my mind. I would want to be closer to 9:50 to be "safe" at Louisville. 4th through 6th were only 3 minutes apart last year... not that any of them probably knew that since it's a rolling start. If you're on the bubble, I think if your a strong swimmer, a rolling start is much better. IF your a strong runner, it's worse....you want a wave or mass start so can literally run them down. That's easier than chasing a clock if you only 2-4 minutes apart.

4:42 is from April HIM. My FTP has gone up from 260 to 295 now. And volume/intensity has gone up.

Last edited by: trimac2: Aug 4, 14 6:59

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [trimac2] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 7:31

Post #11 of 37 (6198 views)

Doesn't matter. You're only as fast as your last race. My vote is for IMLOU if you can perform well in the heat.

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [Billabong] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 7:37

Post #12 of 37 (6177 views)

Billabong wrote:

There are 50 spots for Kona 2014 at Louisville 2300+ athletes

There are 30 spots for Kona 2015 at Maryland 1500+ athletes

Since every age group gets 1 slot, that means percentage wise, 35-39 will be even harder Maryland than at Louisville. 2-3 fast guys will grab the slots at Maryland. At Louisville, he has a long shot at least at 6th-7th place rolldown.

TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

Last edited by: motoguy128: Aug 4, 14 7:40

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [nickwhite] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 7:41

Post #13 of 37 (6162 views)

Evaluate each course against your strength and weakness compared to your competitors.Do you do better flat course, rolling course, hot, humid, ect.

Do something like this
Swim: non wetsuit mostly down stream vs wetsuit, brackish, can get choppy, sea nettles, current
Bike: KY vs totally flat course, great for even power, advantage heavier higher power guys,
Run:

Can you athlink those registered to see who is racing in your AG?

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [Billabong] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 7:46

Post #14 of 37 (6153 views)

Billabong wrote:

There are 50 spots for Kona 2014 at Louisville 2300+ athletes

There are 30 spots for Kona 2015 at Maryland 1500+ athletes

This is a good point for consideration if you want to think about possible rolldowns. IMMD is early in the qualification season for 2015 and the likelihood of a rolldown is going to be much lower than it would be for an end-of-season qualification for 2014 at IMKY.

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [trimac2] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 8:41

Post #15 of 37 (6065 views)

trimac2 wrote:

motoguy128 wrote:

At a 4:42 HIM, unless you get a lot stronger going longer, you're on the outside looking in. If I was to give KQ for 35-39 a minimum 70.3 qualifying time, it would be around 4:30 on a faster course. You'll need a lot of luck if your not under 10 hours at Louisville. I'm don't know the Maryland course and it's the first year and only 30 slots, so it's a huge gamble in my mind. I would want to be closer to 9:50 to be "safe" at Louisville. 4th through 6th were only 3 minutes apart last year... not that any of them probably knew that since it's a rolling start. If you're on the bubble, I think if your a strong swimmer, a rolling start is much better. IF your a strong runner, it's worse....you want a wave or mass start so can literally run them down. That's easier than chasing a clock if you only 2-4 minutes apart.

4:42 is from April HIM. My FTP has gone up from 260 to 295 now. And volume/intensity has gone up.

That helps, but tell me maybe you go 4:35 now. So it might get you on the bubble. Really hard to say. That's a big jump in FTP. But at your height, your still 10-15 short of you direct competition so unless your aero is really, really good (4:42 doesn't say it is ) you're still a little behind the curve.

Either way Louisville is your best bet. Just be really sure about your pacing and very, very disciplined on the hills.

Also consider that if you season started in lets say Dec. or Jan. You may be pushing it trying to hold peak fitness until Maryland. The timing for IMLou is better. I started my IM training in mid Dec and feel like Sept is pushing it for me already and having wished I took a little more recovery after my first A race in June.

TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [trimac2] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 10:29

Post #16 of 37 (5923 views)

trimac2 wrote:

I think I might have an outside shot of KQing but I think it really depends on who shows up, race conditions, etc. IM Maryland has 30 slots and IM Louisville at 50 slots.

Isnt this 1000% dependant on who shows up?

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [noofus] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 10:52

Post #17 of 37 (5871 views)

noofus wrote:

Billabong wrote:

There are 50 spots for Kona 2014 at Louisville 2300+ athletes

There are 30 spots for Kona 2015 at Maryland 1500+ athletes

This is a good point for consideration if you want to think about possible rolldowns. IMMD is early in the qualification season for 2015 and the likelihood of a rolldown is going to be much lower than it would be for an end-of-season qualification for 2014 at IMKY.

Oh crap, I was hoping it was 2014...oh well, so I no roll down at all. I'm guessing you'd have to win your AG to qualify at IMMD which is gonna come from a super fast bike time. It will be similar to IMFL. IMMD is also rolling start as stated in their current FAQ so you really won't know where you're at til post race.

I suspect sub 9:30 will win the competitive 35-39.

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [masterslacker] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 11:08

Post #18 of 37 (5826 views)

Bike times are relative with the same TSS score. I think 4:33 at IMFL is about a 5:00 at IMWI or 5:14 at Whistler or 5:16 at CDA. Heck I was really shocked that Boulder showed a 4:35, or nearly as easy as IMFL. I think the climb there is long, but not steep or the descent is shallow so you get your energy back somewhat effciently.

The important thing is that a flat course favors a weaker cyclist and stronger runner since you spend less time riding, so less time to be gained or lost. A strong cyclist wants a slow hard course to make up more time. A strong swimmer/weak runner, might want thsi as well as it potentially neutralizes the run somewhat for strong runners as they burn energy on the bike.

TrainingBible Coaching
http://www.trainingbible.com

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [motoguy128] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 11:16

Post #19 of 37 (5811 views)

motoguy128 wrote:

Bike times are relative with the same TSS score. I think 4:33 at IMFL is about a 5:00 at IMWI or 5:14 at Whistler or 5:16 at CDA. Heck I was really shocked that Boulder showed a 4:35, or nearly as easy as IMFL. I think the climb there is long, but not steep or the descent is shallow so you get your energy back somewhat effciently.

The important thing is that a flat course favors a weaker cyclist and stronger runner since you spend less time riding, so less time to be gained or lost. A strong cyclist wants a slow hard course to make up more time. A strong swimmer/weak runner, might want thsi as well as it potentially neutralizes the run somewhat for strong runners as they burn energy on the bike.

Altitude helps a lot with this. Thats really a runner's course - probably the best combo of easy bike/hard run

Me: https://carnivoreendurance.blogspot.com/...ever-comes-next.html

Latest: Colorectal Cancer is in the News Again. Don't Blame Red Meat
https://carnivoreendurance.blogspot.com/...news-again-dont.html

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [motoguy128] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 11:27

Post #20 of 37 (5780 views)

So maybe IM Louisville is a better course for me after all. I've put a ton a miles into my biking this summer and I can ride 100+miles no problem and run really well off of it. I do pretty well in hot weather. Obviously, I would race better in colder temperature but so will most of the field. I plugged my numbers in bestbikesplit and I come out with a 5:20 on the bike for Lousiville. I'm pretty sure I can run sub 3:30 off of this.

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [trimac2] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 11:33

Post #21 of 37 (5767 views)

My other option is IM Wisconsin. Endurance travel still has spots. But I always thought this would be hard for a bigger athlete but based on BBS my times are similar to IM Louisville.

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [trimac2] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 11:50

Post #22 of 37 (5739 views)

50 slot race should have double the slots in your age group over a 30 slot race. You're already on the bubble based on your stats. Better go to the 50 slot race. Almost zero chance at a 30 slot race. You have to podium at the 30 slot race.

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [trimac2] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 12:03

Post #23 of 37 (5711 views)

trimac2 wrote:

I think I might have an outside shot of KQing but I think it really depends on who shows up, race conditions, etc. IM Maryland has 30 slots and IM Louisville at 50 slots.
Here is my latest data as of this AM:
6'2" 180lbs 5th year in the sport. Age Group: 35-39 male 6 HIMs (PB=4:42), 2 IMs but completed 3 years ago not going in fit or trained properly (PB=10:35).
Open Marathon: 2:57
5k=17:59
FTP=295
2.4mile open water swim (no wetsuit):1:10 with wetsuit 1:00
CTL (training peaks): 139(just bike and run)
Last week training: 28:30 hrs (Bike=350 miles Swim=12000y run=53.5mi)
Averages last 8 weeks: Bike=295 miles, Swim=12,000yards, run=52miles

I'm kind of leaning towards Louisville just because it has more slots and less people show up for this race to KQ. But the heat and hilly bike is my limiter. IM Maryland seems like a good race because its flat but there are less slots. Thoughts?

I agree with others that you should find the flattest course you possibly can. Your Power/Weight ratio is low for a KQ guy, but your run is good.

Currently you are at 3.6 W/Kg, which is sketchy for a KQ attempt, so the greatest way to reduce that weakness is to ride as flat a course as you can and work on your 'aeroness'.

I think Lousiville is hillier than people are suggesting from what I've heard.

Good luck, regardless.

To be honest, I have an FTP higher than yours and weigh 25 lbs less and *I* think I'm at best a very fringe kind of guy for Kona... but it's not all about numbers in the end, except race time and finishing place ;-)

Founder of THE TRIATHLON COLLECTIVE (Closed Facebook Group). A SBR discussion group without the white noise/trolling!

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [devashish_paul] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 12:04

Post #24 of 37 (5708 views)

Is there a list somewhere of what races will be 50 slots and which ones 30 for 2015?

devashish_paul wrote:

50 slot race should have double the slots in your age group over a 30 slot race. You're already on the bubble based on your stats. Better go to the 50 slot race. Almost zero chance at a 30 slot race. You have to podium at the 30 slot race.

Founder of THE TRIATHLON COLLECTIVE (Closed Facebook Group). A SBR discussion group without the white noise/trolling!

Re: Better chances of KQing at IM Maryland or Louisville based off my data? [Fred D] [ In reply to ]

Aug 4, 14 12:17

Post #25 of 37 (5680 views)

Fred D wrote:

Is there a list somewhere of what races will be 50 slots and which ones 30 for 2015?

devashish_paul wrote:

50 slot race should have double the slots in your age group over a 30 slot race. You're already on the bubble based on your stats. Better go to the 50 slot race. Almost zero chance at a 30 slot race. You have to podium at the 30 slot race.

I don't know of a list. You have to go to each individual race website off ironman.com and look it up. For example, the new IM Taiwan is 25 slots. IM Texas which is North America championship is 50 slots...should be 75-100 slots based on past practice. New races added for this fall IM Malaysia has 40 slots, IM Mallorca has 50 slots, IM Barcelona has 50 slots, IM Tahoe remains at 50 slots. For example, the website lists 50 slots for Whistler, however, that is the text from the race that just passed,so not sure the number it will have next year. Muskoka will have 50 for kona 2015.

Dev

Our Partners

transition-DOT-area-AT-slowtwitch-DOT-com

Advertise with us

©1999-2024 Slowtwitch, Inc., and Slowtwitch.com
Reproduction of material from any Slowtwitch.com page
without written permission is strictly prohibited.