Of course that wasn't a complete field but you can't ask any more of someone than to have beaten EVERYONE else who has shown up to the first 2 races. I agree that anyone with legit medal hopes will be in Rio and we will get a much better sense of how good the American women are there. We already know that Gwen has stepped up the bike because she never has been able to ride the 4th fastest bike split on a hard bike course until now. Hopefully in Rio we will see what happens when the women ride even harder on an even harder bike course.

It is a long season and most are aiming to peak in August/September. So I think the fields we are seeing now, as well as the relative strengths of athletes, is deceiving. Sarah True is currently a shadow of the athlete she was last year but then again, I suspect her goals are to be at her best then, not now. And with all due to respect to Katie Zaferes, I think her results flatter her. So your comparison with Kenyan steeplechasers is a bit exaggerated. On the other hand, if I was American, I'd probably be feeling very upbeat about things. On the other hand, I'd still say that Helen Jenkins, Jodie Stimpson, Non Stanford and Vicky Holland are, when fit, even better as a "crop" than the USA top women.

The trouble is, past form is not a good predictor of future form in women triathletes: Barbara Riveros, Paula Finlay, Emma Moffat etc. very variable.

Non Stanford on Jorgensen in a BBC 5live interview:

"what she's done is phenomenal, absolutely incredible at the minute and I think the million dollar question is how do you beat her? from watching some of the races I feel the girls are just giving up and handing the win. and it's very easy to say that watching from the sidelines but I think you have to look at her weaknesses and try and expose them a bit more"

"it's not a running race, it's a triathlon so you have to expose her earlier on in the race and that's the only way to do it. but all credit to her, she's still swimming and biking well too so at the minute so she's definitely the favourite"

she's back for Cape Town tentatively but aiming to peak for Rio

 
Lots of interesting points since I last chimed in. (Glad it seems we've put to bed the whole complete triathlete nonsense)

Two points;

- The Olympics is the Olympics :) Far too far out to talk favourites, it does something special to campaigns. Lots of time for a new 'favourite' yet, and lots of time for the current favourite to meet a roadblock or two.

- Monty you call it mediocrity to even consider sending the top 3 US girls (I think thats how you framed it? correct me if I've misread/misinterpreted you) and I agree. At the Olympics you put all your eggs in one basket for Gold. But I don't see that happening, far too political at that level. Ultimately it will come down to American culture - they'll take the top 3 girls.

Ultimately it will come down to American culture - they'll take the top 3 girls.//

I disagree, they cannot be that myopic. Of course I have been proven wrong again and again when it comes to USAT and their willingness to do the wrong thing. But in this case they have spent so much money and effort on getting a medal, and now they have the favorite position on the gold(as of this moment), that only morons would throw that away, or put it in jeopardy.


But like you say, it is far enough out right now that things will certainly change a bit. But barring something really bad happening to Gwen, she would have to be our odds on favorite for a medal. Others could usurp her, but they would be from other countries, not ours. Just not enough time for someone to come out of the woodwork and close the huge gap she has on all our girls. Others in the world are a lot better, and I would guess they will form teams just to have a chance to beat Gwen. And I can even see many countries forming alliances against her too, it would be the smart thing to do. So if we just leave her out there all alone to burn alone, well then we will get what we deserve i guess.

I agree. USAT didn't add the domestique section to the qualification process just for kicks. It's very seriously on the table.

I looked quickly for open 1ok times. For gwen I found about 32:20. For Non Stanford 32:40.
So maybenot quite able to give up 3 minutes to everybody?

Correct me if I'm wrong but don't the athletes qualify for the Olympics during the ITU circuit, so it's not like the U.S. can send anyone to be a domestique, they have send athletes who've qualified.

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I ride:
Cervelo - P-Series/R3
GT - Sensor Carbon Expert

Supporters - Flo Cycling, Mount Bikes

 
Federations set their own qualification criteria.

So in effect what you could have is a country such as the US with some really great athletes, say 3 in the top 20 of the world, so they qualify the country 3 slots at the Olympics. But then the federation gets to decide (via their own previously determined qualification criteria) who gets those 3 slots.

What is the longest (number of seasons) a woman has dominated ITU for? At which stage in the typical cycle will Gwen be for Rio?

With the global rule that anyone in the Olympics has to be ranked in the top 140 in the world.

I think Zafares has looked really impressive physiologically so far. In Abu dabi she made a late jump to the break away out of the front group. She then got popped off of that group (unable to hold speed through the winding course?) but still had enough left to out run all the other front pack bike girls. In Auckland she was frequently seen at the front of the bike and again ran well. Compare this to somebody like True who tended to hide a little more (tactics or tired?) and still didn't have the run speed.

I personally think we haven't seen this sort of dominance before in the women's.

If we're looking at the WTS/WCS years then certainly not.

Even if we look at the World Cup era, certainly Snowsill and Fernandes were dominant when they raced, but with more races per season they could avoid each other in all but the big events like Worlds / Olympic / Hamburg / Ishigaki etc, there were a lot more opportunities to be dominant against the field assembled.

But you'd have to agree most fields are now A class in the era of the WTS.

Not particularly relevant (as prior to Olympics anyway) but you'd be hard pressed to argue that Gwen is more 'dominant' just yet than Emma Carney, 94 - 98 beaten 3 times?! If you're looking for your 'complete athlete' (And that isn't a term I particularly like in the new WTS context :




But I think the demands on the athletes in the current context are far more, the pressure is higher, the competition is higher, and with that comes the risk of things going wrong so I don't think we can look at Emma's domination and draw any valuable conclusions?

What are your thoughts Mr B?

The other thing to consider is that the reported hills of Rio may favour lean rather than buoyant.

Also, the Olympics is a once in a lifetime event and the pressures are huge. Some people can enjoy being the favourite (Alistair Brownlee springs to mind, Emma Snowsill), others crumble under the pressure (Lessing, Gomez in 2008?). Some step up their game (Whitfield, even the young Brownlee in 2008, Frodeno). Others freeze. And it is not a given that Gwen will be able to race with the effortlessness we see on the flat dull courses of the world series.

One prediction though: Gwen will win in Australia by a huge margin. It is a flat, totally uninspiring course...

My thought is that if Gwen is still one of the major contenders by Rio then the most amazing thing will be, not her speed, but her durability.
3, maybe 4 years seems to be the max for being a dominant female, regardless of the style of racing at the time. Particularly for an athlete that relies on the run as that usually means having one of the lowest BF%.

Also that in the last couple of years there is a massive difference in the early season womens racing vs the last few races. Whereas the boys are BAU. So race tactics will change as the field strengthens.

Talking about durability, Javier Gomez is remarkable, one of the oldest in the field, he races more frequently than almost anyone else, in many different formats and has been the outstanding athlete over the last 10 years. Possibly helped by pure talent and enforced delay in starting to race due to heart issues? His physical and mental toughness is amazing. Hats off to the bloke. p.s. FeketeBlob Gomez had achilles issues at the 2008 olympics, not sure you can speculate he bottled it.

Perhaps I was being unfair to Gomez. But he was sufficient fit to be in the top 4 with the finish line approaching.

The real issue with the men is, can Alistair Brownlee line up at Rio fully fit? If yes, then I think he is unbeatable on that course. But the odds are probably against him.

And will Gwen avoid injury for the next 16 months?

Do you say odds are against him because of durability issues with the short course training? He seems pretty hard to stop when preparing for one race...especially if the bike is as tough as you're indicating. I just hope we see him healthy. Then let him have a crack at the longer stuff!

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Aaron Bales
Lansing Triathlon Team

The last time Alistair looked good on the run was San DIego 2013. He then picked up an achilles issue and did only two run training sessions the rest of the year. He broke down completely in London and spent a month in a boot! He was not run fit in 2014 until June, ran reasonably well at the Commonwealtlh Games, only to get injured again before Edmonton .. When you add to that the stress fracture that spoiled 2010, other issues in early 2011 and the Achilles injury in 2012 (and after the Olympics, he then got appendicitis and couldn't run), I would say that the odds are stacked against him being totally run fit in Rio. On the other hand, he has proven he can win by being bold on the bike (Stockholm 2013, Edmonton 2014).

So far, he has managed to be fit when it matters. And hopefully, he will be again for Rio. But as I say, I think it is less than 50-50...

AB seems to be his own worst enemy. I suspect he trains too hard and too much. When on form, and especially on a hilly course, is only racing himself. However, he is Olympic Champion and my best result was 2nd in a local sprint!

Did you hear JB say he was riding 20 hours a week during his interview?

Any idea of how much swimming and running?

jaretj

I can't talk about volume but a chap that trains with us used to train on the same track as their group. The AB/JB track run sessions are old school full out sessions!

You can only get appendix once and his timing was impeccable. Didn't he win Edmonton ?