Zimzala1 wrote:
Is he holding back and moving into form ?
This line of reasoning/questioning/thinking seems to come up a lot with regards to Lance. So let me try to offer some insight.
EVERYONE is moving into form. Nobody starts the year ready to win Kona. Even Crowie, who would have certainly peaked for Melbourne (followed by some recovery and now I'm sure he's back on his steady build to peak for Vegas & Kona), was almost certainly not at his very best for Melbourne. No one is holding back at these races. But they are certainly not racing as fast now as they will in a few months (depending on how they structure their seasons).
As a further aside, strong cyclists ALWAYS take their time in the back half (or 1/3) of the race. Chris Lieto took FOUR minutes out of the field in Vegas - at a championship race - after mile 40. Especially at St. Croix, where you do the mini loop of the course twice - once to start and once to finish - it's the logical place to take time out of people and it's also when, typically, the folks that have been pushing the pace start to slow down. That race really starts at the Beast. And it's not really a good risk:reward to push the pace in the middle section of the course. You can take your 1:50 out at the beginning if you want - like Bjorn used to do - but it usually take a lot more power to do so.
Basically, Lance is doing what every other pro does. He's getting fitter, honing his race tactics, and getting a feel for how he balances his output on the bike and how that affects the run (swim output is generally pretty constant). While I am certain it will not put an end to the speculation, Lance is preparing how any smart pro - which is what he is - prepares for a big race on a known date. Crowie also had cards to play on the bike that you didn't see until Kona, and Jacobs had matches on the run, and Bockel on bike and run, and Raelert and...
It'd be a very risky and, IMO, idiotic strategy to sandbag all of your races in hopes of surprising people at your second ever Ironman during a race that will play out completely different tactically and on a dramatically different course topographically and against a field several orders of magnitude deeper than your first ever Ironman. Lance is a master strategist, but he's also a 40 year old who's been away from the sport for 25 years. If you honestly believe he is that confident in his poker face, be my guest to speculate that there is something more than the obvious.
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