You stand a highly likely chance of getting it if you're sub 4:40 in my opinion based on the roll downs I've seen.

I imagine you probably have good chance coming top 5-10, with a 4:30-40 depending on course.
In Oceania you need to be top 3 in the AG and ~4:15. 1 roll-down in the entire men's field at 70.3 Busselton the other week.

70.3 world slots are a total crap shoot in my experience. That’s a late season race nowhere near the race, so you have a decent shot that it will roll down. Best advice is to not think about it (beyond motivation) and just go race the best race you can race and hope the chips land in your favor :) I have seen races where in some age groups spots have rolled to a different age group while others haven’t rolled at all. Just comes down to who races that day. Do the work and come ready to race hard.

Yeah I think you're right looking at previous results but weather/any small on-course changes can result in a small swing year to year. If you get warm weather & you're fixated on 4:30, you might go 4:40 when 4:35 = 4:30 & you needed that 4:35 to qualify. Other years, it could be a 4:25 that = that 4:30 because conditions are perfect. While not perfect, I think looking at USAT score ratings would be helpful for you. See the score rating for the slots given out at those races. Look at that over the last couple of years. Then see where you typically score. But I think you're generally in the ballpark M35-39. Sub-4:30 usually gets it done or has you very close. Sub-4:40 & top-10 or so AG gives you a chance with roll downs. Worth it for you to go to the awards if you end up being really close.

I'd say the better question is if you are putting out a 13:14 in IMWI and a 14:09 in IMAZ, what is your training plan to get to a 4:30 in Lou or Chat. That's the equivalent of chopping of 3-4hrs in an IM.

Not sure where you're currently at but you should have a good chance if you're in range of top 5 of your age group. Slots rolled deep at Waco for all age groups under 40. It's not a bucket list race like Kona and a huge expense for people starting out or still raising kids. Slots didn't roll down much or at all over 50.

Honestly, if you can go sub 4:30 on faster courses reliably, you're pretty much a shoe-in for 70.3 worlds, the way roll-downs have been going the last several years and the larger number of slots often a available now. I've qualified with 4:26 and I've qualified with 4:4x on the same course when I f-ed up nutrition or pacing and plodded around the run course a couple years later. So if 4:2x is within your capability on any full length (non current aided swim) course, you will qualify, probably even if you have a bad race.

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Ed O'Malley
www.VeloVetta.com
Founder of VeloVetta Cycling Shoes
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Oh nice. I'm a physician and we had a baby that's now a toddler. IM AZ was straight out of fellowship and done on 3 months of training, then IM WI this past September was actually just done as a bonus race a couple weeks after the Leadville 100 MTB in CO (my goal race of the season), and my training was geared toward that. Now my work and family schedule is sorted, so I'm training consistently, using a Trainer Road mid volume program I modify. I have a swim and run background so for Olympic my swim split will be ~23min swim, my bike FTP will be 3.8 W/kg (maybe 63 min bike leg), and my Oly 10km will be ~40min (was 43min last year on minimal run training; I have a 36min open 10km PR), so with transitions I'm shooting for ~2:10 Olympic time and a 4:30 - 4:40 half iron time (30min Swim+T1, ~2:30 bike, ~1:30 - 1:35 run).

Hey thanks for the reply; it sounds like if I'm in 4:30 - 4:40 shape I could get lucky with roll downs.

Thanks very much for the reply; yeah it seems like for competitive races or AG podium it's more like that 4:15 timing, but maybe could get lucky with roll downs at other races.

Thanks for the reply, great advice.

Thanks very much; seems like my plan to just do the best I can, and I could be in the zone of getting a roll down (if I'm like 4:25 - 4:40), with racing often enough I could get a spot eventually.

Awesome, thanks for the reply. We have some family in the area so that could be a fun destination race for us.

Awesome, thanks very much, that's great to hear.

Okay, okay… can you teach the rest of us how to “plod around” a 4:4x 70.3? 😎

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Not a coach. Not a FOP Tri/swimmer/biker/runner. Barely a MOP AGer.
But I'm learning and making progress.

"Well, it all starts with these special bike shoes..." :)

I was 4:45 at Chattanooga and not even top 15 in 35-39, and I was doing Olympics around 2:15 at the time.

Top 5 were all sub 4:20. 9th place was 4:27.

The run is near interminable.

Thanks for the reply; yeah it's impressive how fast people are. I don't see myself going much faster than 4:30 based off the amount of training time I have so I think if a future goal is qualifying I'll just be consistent and maybe snag a rolldown slot.

Hey also, I don't see that I have my name in my profile and I haven't linked my blog, so I appreciate you took the time to look into my racing to help inform your thoughts but how'd you grab my name? Prior post?

I heard doing track sessions in the lightning with EK highly up the chances :)

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IG: NCGregory8778

If you're ok going to Waco, it should only take a top 10 AG finish to snag a spot in that AG. Timewise you'll only have to be 4:40 to 4:50.

Yeah thank you, that's the second recommendation for Waco being a good candidate race for qualifying. I would happily travel to a race for a higher chance at a slot, thanks for the tip!

What he tried to say is that is that the guys that race 2:10 Oly and 4:30 HIM are way faster than the guys that race 13-14 IM. So if that's where you are you have a long way to go. Sub 5 might be a more realistic goal for now. Swim/run fitness is good but ultimately is not running off the bike after 3 hours of swim/bike tempo effort. But hey, if you can get there..go for it.

Keep in mind that the course has changed quite a bit over the years, so it's hard to compare times. In 2023 the race had a new bike course, but it was extremely windy the last 20 miles. Bike times were slower because of that. The run course still has one legit section of hills but otherwise it's pretty flat, so the times can be fast. You barely had to go under 5:00 in my AG to get a rolldown slot.