40k TT - Who would win?

Mar 1, 18 2:46

Post #1 of 50 (4114 views)

If your would line up all of triathlons best bikers for a 40k TT, who would win and what time? No swimming or running involved.
Wurf did 55 min at Australia ITT which was 40.9k, not sure if the course was flat or anything. Wurf is prob around 420W for a 40k and not sure any of the current bikers can match those pure watts, though I believe a few may be more aero.
Kienle did 34 min for a 22k at Rad am Ring which is quite hilly with 517m of elevation and previously has gone sub 55 though that was a long time ago.
Who else would be contending? I can see Alistair putting out good watts and he is passes the eyeball aero test.
Lionel would put up watts a bit under Wurf, but I think Wurf has a better position anyhow as well as w/cda.
Starky has also gone sub 55 though that was years ago.

My top 3 would be
1. Wurf 48:xx
2. Starky 49:xx
3. Alistair : 49:xx

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Last edited by: oscaro: Mar 1, 18 20:15

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 2:54

Post #2 of 50 (4098 views)

I would say with tunnel testing with Wurf he would be a considerable amount more aerodynamic than when he rode the AUS National TT, maybe drop a minute or two off comparing now.

Lucas Hoffman

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [Hoffy] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 2:58

Post #3 of 50 (4088 views)

Yes you’re right, and 55:09 44,9 is more equal to high 53 anyway so changing my prediction

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 3:09

Post #4 of 50 (4075 views)

It's not a totally flat course, but it's no mountain course either.
From memory (I've not been to Ballarat for a few years) the road surface is not great though, and it's usually hideously windy. Margins can be blown out year to year - Sean Lake was 90 secs behind Dennis in 16 and then 4 and a bit the year after (referenced as he like Wurf is a former rower, and knocked off Wurf by 5 seconds)

http://src.media.cyclingnews.com/2015/12/23/1/cycling_australia_national_championships_tt_profile.jpg gives the course profile.

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [Hoffy] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 3:09

Post #5 of 50 (4074 views)

I thought Wurf had done extensive tunnel testing with Faster. The trick to a 40k could be using a more radical position. Sub-50 minutes versus 4 hours allows for a more compact fit. Kienle wouldn't see much of a difference in my estimation because he already looks really good, with little room to improve. Plus he descends well with his low position and he would lose that advantage on a flat 40k.

Got to stil pick Wurf I guess.

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [grumpier.mike] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 3:17

Post #6 of 50 (4051 views)

I meant that I don't think he had done tunnel testing before that nationals. I do remember him being at the FASTER tunnel. Who else would be able to put out a decent 40k TT?

Lucas Hoffman

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 3:46

Post #7 of 50 (4005 views)

oscaro wrote:

If your would line up all of triathlons best bikers for a 40k TT, who would win and what time? No swimming or running involved.
Wurf did 55 min at Australia ITT which was 40.9k, not sure if the course was flat or anything. Wurf is prob around 420W for a 40k and not sure any of the current bikers can match those pure watts, though I believe a few may be more aero.
Kienle did 34 min for a 22k at Rad am Ring which is quite hilly with 517m of elevation and previously has gone sub 55 though that was a long time ago.
Who else would be contending? I can see Alistair putting out good watts and he is passes the eyeball aero test.
Lionel would put up watts a bit under Wurf, but I think Wurf has a better position anyhow as well as w/cda.
Starky has also gone sub 55 though that was years ago.

My top 3 would be
1. Wurf 53:xx
2. Starky 54:xx
3. Alistair : 55:xx

Philip Graves was the first name that came to mind. A quick search for his TT times last year show him going sub 52 minutes for one 25 mile course and sub 53 for another. https://www.cyclingtimetrials.org.uk/rider-results/1134

It's worth noting that Cameron Wurf did put over 20 minutes into Philip Graves on the bike at Ironman Wales last year over the longer distance and on a hilly course (for an IM brand race). Graves made up time on the run and finished 2minutes 30 seconds behind Wurf at the end though so maybe Graves paced it better or Wurf may have eased up to do what he needed to do to win and save something for Kona.

Does anyone know what kind of TT rider Andrew Talansky is?

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 3:51

Post #8 of 50 (3994 views)

On a reasonable fast flat course Dreitz would go below 50 minutes!

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [Ian A] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 3:56

Post #9 of 50 (3983 views)

Ian A wrote:

Does anyone know what kind of TT rider Andrew Talansky is?

hes ok i guess

https://www.procyclingstats.com/...is-nice/2015/stage-7
https://www.procyclingstats.com/...espana/2016/stage-19
https://www.procyclingstats.com/...ifornia/2017/stage-6
https://www.procyclingstats.com/...ifornia/2016/stage-6
https://www.procyclingstats.com/...usa-itt/2015/stage-1
https://www.procyclingstats.com/...auphine/2014/stage-1

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [Ian A] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 4:04

Post #10 of 50 (3961 views)

Yeah I thought about Graves at first, he put a min on Alistair over a hilly 50 mile tt, though it is worth noting it was Alistairs first tt and he hasn’t had too much adaption to the tt position.
I was simply hesitant on including him as I don’t see him as a pure triathlete, more like a time trialer who dabs in triathlon.
Talansky is not a triathlete yet.so I think it would be unfair to use his previous results as a comparison.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [Ian A] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 4:07

Post #11 of 50 (3956 views)

Ian A wrote:

oscaro wrote:

If your would line up all of triathlons best bikers for a 40k TT, who would win and what time? No swimming or running involved.
Wurf did 55 min at Australia ITT which was 40.9k, not sure if the course was flat or anything. Wurf is prob around 420W for a 40k and not sure any of the current bikers can match those pure watts, though I believe a few may be more aero.
Kienle did 34 min for a 22k at Rad am Ring which is quite hilly with 517m of elevation and previously has gone sub 55 though that was a long time ago.
Who else would be contending? I can see Alistair putting out good watts and he is passes the eyeball aero test.
Lionel would put up watts a bit under Wurf, but I think Wurf has a better position anyhow as well as w/cda.
Starky has also gone sub 55 though that was years ago.

My top 3 would be
1. Wurf 53:xx
2. Starky 54:xx
3. Alistair : 55:xx

Philip Graves was the first name that came to mind. A quick search for his TT times last year show him going sub 52 minutes for one 25 mile course and sub 53 for another. https://www.cyclingtimetrials.org.uk/rider-results/1134

It's worth noting that Cameron Wurf did put over 20 minutes into Philip Graves on the bike at Ironman Wales last year over the longer distance and on a hilly course (for an IM brand race). Graves made up time on the run and finished 2minutes 30 seconds behind Wurf at the end though so maybe Graves paced it better or Wurf may have eased up to do what he needed to do to win and save something for Kona.

Does anyone know what kind of TT rider Andrew Talansky is?

It might also be a question of the course - if it's one of the 'fast' courses in the UK with dual carriageway and traffic coming past setting up a draft, the times might not quite be as insanely quick as they seem.

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [buzz] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 4:08

Post #12 of 50 (3954 views)

Thanks for the links. That Vuelta stage 19 TT result is something special.

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [altayloraus] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 4:20

Post #13 of 50 (3935 views)

That's true. The Otley course looks like an out and back up the A1(M) and probably plenty of traffic drag assistance. The sub 52 was on what looks like normal A roads, a few junctions and roundabouts and negotiaite etc so looks legit. I don't know any of the courses first hand

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 4:46

Post #14 of 50 (3893 views)

I think Cam Dye has gone sub 53, so I'd toss him up there... Andrew Yoder as well when he's in top form. Did the WV State Championship TT a few years ago with him in the field... he won Cat1, that guy can legit fly on a bike!

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 5:29

Post #15 of 50 (3798 views)

I think some of those top triathletes could be close to 50 on a flat course. I did 59 on a 26 mile course in an Olympic last year, and that was only at 305 watts. That would translate to 56 or 57 at similar watts on a 40k course, and around FTP I'd be quicker. Someone putting out considerably more power should be much faster, although I know there gets to be a point where more power only translates into smaller increments of time.

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Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 5:29

Post #16 of 50 (3797 views)

Talansky

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 5:39

Post #17 of 50 (3778 views)

Again, Talansky isn't really a triathlete yet. He just stopped pro cycling so it would be wrong to use his previous pro times.
We will se how fast he can bike when he has two other things to train as well.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 5:45

Post #18 of 50 (3758 views)

You are way way off I'm afraid. You need to rethink.

Not disagreeing that Wurf might be the fastest but it will a lot (LOT) quicker than 55.

This chap had the fastest bike split at IM Wales and won his AG.

https://www.cyclingtimetrials.org.uk/rider/580

His fastest 40km is 49.57

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 5:51

Post #19 of 50 (3741 views)

Patrick Lange needed last year in the olympic distance in Erding (Germany) 57:07 for 41,3 km, that is 55 minutes for 40 km. I guess he would have been faster without swimming and running involved.

However, air temperature and air pressure have influence.

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [tuckandgo] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 5:56

Post #20 of 50 (3730 views)

Agreed not sure of the order but it would be a hell of lot quicker than 55 mins.

Here is a result from last year - 24 going under 50 mins, my 52:49 netted 59th (I'm no uber biker even in M50-54) and the top 100 all under 55. Fast course though....

https://www.cyclingtimetrials.org.uk/race-results/14720

IIRC you needed a time around 55 mins to get a place on the start line.

The guys in the top 10 would be 50 mins or thereabouts even on pretty slow courses from what I've seen.

Remember also you can utterly bury yourself on a TT, no need to save the legs.

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [tuckandgo] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 6:01

Post #21 of 50 (3707 views)

If its a pancake flat course, then yeah they will prob be a lot faster and Wurf may go under 50, but I wouldn't say it was certain.
How fast do you think they would go?

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [TRO Saracen] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 6:04

Post #22 of 50 (3701 views)

TRO Saracen wrote:

my 52:49 netted 59th (I'm no uber biker even in M50-54)

Well, are you sure you're no uber biker in M50-54?

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 6:22

Post #23 of 50 (3649 views)

Wurf did triathlon the year after retiring from pro cycling, what’s the difference?

Btw, sub-50 for a 40k isn’t crazy fast for a flat course, best triathletes should best that. This is at elevation— Justin posts on here and took up triathlon shortly after. http://www.strava.com/segments/639856

Last edited by: Carl Spackler: Mar 1, 18 6:30

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [Carl Spackler] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 6:29

Post #24 of 50 (3633 views)

Maybe they should do that, but I still haven't found any that have.

Terrible Tuesday’s Triathlon

Re: 40k TT - Who would win? [oscaro] [ In reply to ]

Mar 1, 18 6:32

Post #25 of 50 (3623 views)

See the link I added. To put some context around it, Nate English was a domestic pro and absolute beast on bike. At the Tour of Cali in 2013 he finished 23rd in ITT, 3:30 back. Last year Talanaky finished 2nd by a few seconds.

Probably can’t find because few do a timed, all-out stand-alone 40k. It’s not fun.

Last edited by: Carl Spackler: Mar 1, 18 15:27

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