What a stage this is!

Best tour in almost a decade. Wide open racing, no one team destroying everyone else. Great attacks by Pinot and Thomas. Thought GT was done, but he might win this tour yet.

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Taco cat spelled backwards is....taco cat.

Well, shut my mouth. Thomas looks great going into the longer grindy climbs.
Go FDJ.

I didn't coin it, just reduced it to a usable abbreviation. Dude has serious panache.

I'm glad he's shown something, still doesn't look anything close to the form he was in last year.

Got that right. No idea who'll win this thing

No doubt, Pinot looks the strongest at moment; had he not lost time in crosswinds he’d be leading. Glad to see LFF come down to earth today, makes it all more believable.

Looks like 5 solid contenders are all fairly even right now.

Yes. Everyone had access to EPO but armstrong still won

If they work, the guys at the front will still be at the front

It's when you see riders not ordinarily at the front after 12 days of racing that it might raise some questions

Not an Ineos fan but Thomas looked good today. And Poels is coming into form. I can't see Ala hanging on but it's still a 5-way race!

Landa made his move tody, but not enough. Love his quote on Q: "It was a pity Quintana couldn't do anything else. A couple of kilometres of relief wouldn't have done me any harm."

Ouch!

That stage on Wed over Col de Vars + Izouard + Galibier down to Valloire is going to hurt Alaphillippe. The other mountain stages are much shorter where his explosiveness can keep him in the game. This one is a grinder and all of them cap out at 2100m to 2700m+ meaning you have less oxygen for your more explosive style of riding. This stage will favour the Ineos train which I hate to see dominate again but it will favour them. I think Pinot is burning a lot of matches right now. Still 3 really hard days of Alps riding. I'd love to see the French win this one though. I don't think they are pacing this race that well and it will catch up on week 3.

Dev

I understand the game theory, but that sort of rationalizing glosses over the likely case that there are guys who decided to follow the rules who are no longer at the front. My example is that without any proof I suspect that Tejay van Garderen is driven-snow clean. And yet he's vilified for being "mentally weak" because he can't consistently stay with some guys who are probably gray-area at best, full doping at worst.

Ala is like a middle distance runner that tries to win a marathon.

It is a terrific advantage when you have so much speed endurance and then extend that. It bodes well for a career in longer distances. Most great marathoners were also fast on the track. However, you need to prepare for it.

I think Ala has every chance to win the Tour but I'm not sure if it's already his year. I don't think he went in there with the sole purpose of taking yellow to Paris. Remember how he led out the sprint in stage 4. I think he would have been much more careful with his matches early on had he known that he will still be in yellow in week 3.

Would be great if he brings it to Paris but it is also possible that he cracks in one of the grueling 3 stages ahead. Nevermind with some more specific training and focus this guy could turn himself in one hell of a GC rider.

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10k - 30:48 / half - 1:06:40

GT salvaged a little something, but his attack was a pretty weak one. He was dropped by Pinot, Buchman, Bernal, and Alaphillipe, Poels paces him and they, along with Kruseship and Bala, make there way up to Alaphillipe who has cracked. Then they sit on Alaphillipe's wheel for a quite a while before GT makes a dig, dropping the cracked Alaphilippe but taking Kruseship and Bala with him.

GT gains less than thirty seconds on Alaphilippe -- who was done in by trying to stay with Pinot -- but loses time to three guys, so that now there are four behind him within 39 seconds.

Wide open Tour still. I'm picking Pinot. Only 15 seconds behind GT from now on he just needs to hold GT's wheel and use his punch to nab seconds, and maybe time bonuses at the end of stage 19 and 20 in the Alps.

Question: given that last two stages before Paris will have mountaintop finishes -- which will likely decide the Tour. Will teams be reluctant to push the pace on the long stage 18 knowing that there is 19km downhill to finish that may allow others to catch up especially others with teammate? For instance, Alaphilippe manages to stay with Kruisjwijk on the last climb, he'll have J-V help on run to the finish.

I can see stage 18 ridden conservatively -- but for the fact that five guys need Alaphilippe broken.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

I don't really buy that because I don't think anyone was sparing matches today. Bernal and Buchmann were chasing Pinot as hard as they could. Thomas, Kruiswijk, and Porte were chasing Bernal and Buchmann as hard as they could. I don't think anyone was thinking, "I'm going to give up 5 seconds right now to save for Wednesday." Pinot had more in reserve. It was actually an intelligent, measured move. A typical Sky-Froome move. Open a gap with 1-2K to go, hold it to the end.

Edit: I'm not claiming that Pinot is going to maintain his competitive advantage for another week. I just don't think he was really burning matches today. If you're racing GC and you can take 30 seconds in the last 2K, you have to take that 30 seconds.

Pinot went a lot earlier than with 2k left - maybe 5k to go? Agreed he needed to take the time, he definitely burnt some matches this weekend but didn't have a choice, we'll find out later in the week if he brought enough matches to spare!

I'm never sure how much the Sky train actually helped them in the big mountain days. Always seemed to me that if you've got the strongest climber in the race then as long as you deliver that guy to the final climb as fresh as possible (and not having had to fetch his own bottles from the team car...) then after that his form takes care of the rest. Froome was the strongest climber in the race from 2012-17 (apart from crashing out in 2014), last year it was Thomas, I think they'd have won those Tours even if they'd been on a weaker team (whether Wiggins would have won if racing against Froome instead of having him as a super-domestique is a whole different topic). This year the strongest climber so far is Pinot, and even if Poels and Kwiatkowski were on top form I don't think it would make any difference if Thomas/Bernal didn't have the legs to go with him. I think the strong team is far more useful in terms of keeping you in the right place in the peloton and out of trouble, being able to control how far the breakaways get, dealing with cobbles and crosswinds, etc.

But it was 3x 2K. According do cyclingnews he went at 6km. On TV he went when the screen showed Simon Yates had 6.1 km to go, so it was more than 6k. Does that change your thoughts?

I still agree with you. Pinot only has two more stages to get time on GT, 19 and 20. Those are short stages and he needs time when he can get it. Today he put himself in striking distance. Also his riding style is called panache. Maybe he burned matches, but you gotta burn some if you want to come from behind.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

I was starting to believe that JA might actually put this tour off, before he cracked today. He has 95 seconds but I think the next mountain stage will bury him, if not it might come down to next Saturday.

I see GT and Pinot taking 1-2 after the next mountain stage and hoping that Pinot either comes out on top or takes down GT on one of the last 2 mountain stages.

Temps are to be in the 100's for the next week, we might see complete destruction and more surprises.

If JA pulls this off it would be a great tour victory, but we the fans have already won with a great tour so far.

Well your reply to Trail beat me to it. I said similar things to you.


The advantage they had was that they discouraged longer range attacks. Any attack except on a MTF could be closed by Sky over time as they had plenty of guys to pull downhill and through the valleys. If you got the lead early, as they usually did, then the team helped you hold it.

Chris Horner on NBC said that Alaphilippe was stronger than Thomas, and that the only reason GT took time on Alaphilippe was due to Ala's errors of chasing Pinot, then Buchman, then leading Wout, Thomas, and company for several KM going 100% trying to limit loses to Pinot. Thomas had a free ride the whole time says Horner. Considering the work Ala did chasing Pinot then leading Thomas, I think he may have a point.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

Yeah, you guys are right was ~6K. Still think it's fine. There's effectively no drafting at the pitches they were at, so there was really no energy to be saved by sitting behind someone. His accelerations seemed more measured than violent - just enough to break people psychologically. And they forced equivalent attacks behind him. And once LFF fell off everyone was full gas. I think with only 3-4 "GC stages" left, Pinot can't leave time on the table by just sitting in. Plus I think Pinot has a sense of duty to his teammates. His two domestiques rode their asses off to help shred the group down to the final 7-8. He wasn't going to let Thomas and Bernal get a free ride to the finish on the backs of his teammates.

Two stages appear to have finishes at the bottom of descents which if Alaphillipe really goes for it could allow him to put time into the likes of Pinot and Thomas.

If Alaphilippe is feeling punchy after the summit of the Galibier, the GC guys have more to worry about than him eating a few seconds away at the finish.

As a practical matter there are likely only two stages left for Pinot to take time on Thomas. Here is next seven days:

- Rest day.
- Stage 16 - flat
- Stage 17 - "hilly" concludes with Cat 3 climb, 9 km downhill to finish. Attack unlikely.
- Stage 18 - 208 km in Alps, 19 km downhill finish after Galibier, unless GT cracks big time, his team will bring him back downhill, no one in top 6 will launch long range attack otherwise. Ala may get cracked on Galibier or before -- heck anyone in top six may crack.
- Stage 19 and 20, shorter stages with MTF -- this is where Pinot will have to win the Tour, 16 seconds on GT will do the trick (assuming Ala cracks and no one else can stay with Pinot).
- Paris

Pinot had to go today. But regardless of strategy, there is another reason: Pinot has panache.

Edit: Stage 18 - bonus seconds up for first to top of Galibier and also for penultimate climb d'Iseran on Stage 19. Wow. Those are going to be crucial given distance 2nd to 6th.

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It doesn't really matter what Phil is saying, the music of his voice is the appropriate soundtrack for a bicycle race. HTupolev

A big day of rain in the mountains could also put those who don't descend so well into all kinds of trouble especially if some brave descenders decide to go for it.

Good analysis of the last week.

Alaphillipe made the mistake of not staying on Thomas' wheel today. Was surprised when Alaphillipe went after Pinot when the race was with GT/Bernal. If Pinot wins the TdeF, that would not be disaster for the French. Both Alaphillipe and Pinot would be celebrated. If neither of them win, that would be a disaster when they are this close. Someone would be smart to have a talk with Alaphillipe about marking Thomas and not Pinot.

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Indoor Triathlete - I thought I was right, until I realized I was wrong.

Here to check in and take 3 big spoonfuls of crow. I may still end up being right that Alaphilippe cracks and fades far away in the GC, but there is no way I thought we would still be in yellow after today...let alone yesterday. Chapeau...that's some serious panache that had me yelling "WTF is going on" at least 30 times while watching stage 14 as GC hopeful one after another got dropped before Alaphilippe.

I believe he can be a GC threat in a grand tour. I just can't wrap my head around how he can do it while focusing on the spring classics and dominating them earlier this year...then burning all kinds of matches early on for stage glory. What he has done thus far, even if he fades off on the next mountain stage, is going to be talked about for a long time in terms of a 6 month run of results this season.

What's great about this year is that it's so wide open. Ineos doesn't look the same, and Pinot and his team looks great. So does Kruijswijk and his team. I do think that in week 3...we are going to see all of the GC contenders in trouble at some point. Having a teammate there to minimize losses is going to be critical.

So looking forward to week 3.