I kinda like Rigoberto at 30-1. He has the tools, and EF has had a really good year overall. Woods just missed the rainbow jersey. TJ is good enough to pull the necessary weight to keep him up in the hunt. The Italian kid was a nice find. And the rest of the cast is solid. They ride well as a team. Did a great job to pace him up last year when he bit it early.

I’ll take Bernal at 11/2 all day long. He and Thomas will be very close going into the last week and team will let them decide it in the last mountain stages. I don’t think Thomas will be able to stay with Bernal in the last stages. don’t think Enios cares whether Bernal or Thomas wins, just as long as one of them does.

I'd definitely like to see Rigo or someone from EF win it. I'm not going to be displeased of Thomas repeats or Bernal wins it either.

And they're easy to see

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"What's your claim?" - Ben Gravy
"Your best work is the work you're excited about" - Rick Rubin

He’s a little like Cadel who couldn’t close the deal... until he did. Cadel was more consistent and had bigger GT results, though Richie has bagged some big non-GT wins too. Fuglsang sort of fits that mold as well though appears to have the form of his life this year, like Thomas last.

Porte races more robotically than Bardet but I hope they’re all in good form and have good luck.

If Quintana had panache, or maybe just emote, I'd think he'd be better than 16-1. Nobody likes the guy, and yet he's got 2 GT wins and 5 GT stages. He rides smart, and has a strong team support. He's only 29. Prime time.

Porte could surprise. Stars have to really align to get it all right in a GT. Hell, even just to have a solid career.

Same with Uran. Luck, team, and other guys' bad luck, all necessary. Or, alternatively, just have a team of studs who systematically dope and rip the legs off of everyone else. Aka, The Bruneel method. It's one way to get it done.

Thomas I like a lot but I don't think he's the super stud talent to win it again. Remember, he's been around a while, no young phenom he. He could be one and done.

I'm not on the Thomas GC bandwagon. Thinking he could be like a more likable Wiggo--had form of his life and bagged the big one.

That early, stone-faced killer Quintana throwing body blows high in the mountains... where's he hiding out? Still devoid of expression but also the panache and aggression that made him look so good. His GT wins weren't exactly dominating--if memory serves one was by sort of a hanky move when race was neutralized--but he seems to just follow wheels and not animate race. Easy to say "just follow wheels" when Sky rides tempo with enough power to blend frozen margaritas, but he's not gonna win by relying on TT prowess.

Agree. This is best EF team that I can remember. Is Jonathan Vaughter's due or what? I would not be disappointed if they came away with a win or podium. Preferably a win.

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Indoor Triathlete - I thought I was right, until I realized I was wrong.

Sports books aren't in the business of listing actual odds of winning. Their ultimate goal is to balance the amount of bets so that once the book is closed, no matter the outcome, they will turn a profit. Factoring in public perception of riders plays a role in that, and Thomas and Porte will be popular bets among the casual betting fan.

If sports books did allow you to fade an individual athlete to "not win" an event, then you could better see what the actual odds they feel they have of winning are. But doing so would show the bettor how much "house advantage" they are giving up, and probably dissuade them from betting.

The problem with Porte is his trek cast. They have been horrible this year. Mollema will help. Julian Bernard a little. Styven on the flats. But he needs more help I think

I completely agree. And this is why a rider like Uran has good odds IMO - although he has a proven record and a good team, he's lacking in appeal to most of the betting crowd.

Would love to see Rigo win. EF has a great team this year.

Astute observation. Betting does reflect popularity and bookies balancing. Yet, from sports books we can get a feel for what the general public thinks will happen which gives us the advantage of thousands and thousands of opinions on the outcome all rolled up into odds.

If you think you know the sport and it's dark horses, then this could be one of the better years to bet on someone.

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Indoor Triathlete - I thought I was right, until I realized I was wrong.

well i'll take a flyer on some dark horses
Pinot
Porte
Uran

polka dot - Bardet
green - Sagan
white - Bernal

Nah...I don't think this year is any better than others. Probably worse for bettors this year. In the past Froome has basically been an even money favorite. This year is much more wide open, so your typical dark horses are not going to see a very good price as they have a legit chance to win. I think the books will be pretty happy this year as money will be spread around fairly evenly considering, and they don't have to give 2nd tier riders very "good odds" to dissuade bettors from piling on the one favorite...since there really is no one favorite this year.

Saw an article where Porte mentions how sick he's been this year and his form if off. If it's like Cavendish, it won't matter how good or bad a team.

We would like to see good domestiques change teams and win grand tours. Who has that happened to - I can't recall?

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Indoor Triathlete - I thought I was right, until I realized I was wrong.

They didn’t change teams but Sky/Ineos might see a third domestique with a GT this year.

Horndog is the other recent one who comes to mind.

Haha While technically true their stable contains "domestiques" better than many other team's GC threats

Or Ryder Hesjedel. Rabobank/USPS/Phonak domestique before striking gold with the EF Education predecessor team.

True. But the qualifier was not to change teams. It seems like promotion from within is the surer path to victory. Changing teams seems to be a bad career move except for more money and more pressure to win.

From Sky/Ineos we have: Wiggins, Froome, Thomas, and maybe Bernal.

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Indoor Triathlete - I thought I was right, until I realized I was wrong.

I wouldn't say *any* form. He looked OK at the ToC and Dauphine. He was climbing with the best climbers at both excepting getting gapped at the end of a few climbs. In the Dauphine TT he did quite well at 11th.

Of course *winning* the Dauphine is supposed to be the thing to do before winning the TdF, but still.

Regarding porte, ok he has shown some form, but I would still say he hasn't shown "any" form to put in the the podium conversation for this years Tour, you mention Cali, look at the 4 guys that finished ahead of him, they are guys that wont get anywhere near a tour podium, if Porte was in any kind of "real" form he should he have been able to blow those guys out of the water, and at the Dauphiné he finished well behind every GC guy.

They have Nibali next year