While it’s sad to see curtain come down in spring classics it’s a least a short rest period until best GT of year.

  

Very disappointing that Bernal is out

indeed; and he was going to have the full backing of the Sky team

there are subplots, too; i'd like to see how the strong lieutenants (Chavez, Ooman, and Pozzovivo) do. Chavez was once upon a time a contender in his own right, and i'm still not quite sure what happened. Pozzovivo may play an important role for Nibali. And then there's Ooman, upon whom Dumoulin would need to lean from time to time. It's all so fascinating

Really excited about this years Giro. I anticipate a lot of haymakers thrown and some bad days.

Lopez should be rocking a new TT bike.

About the only way I can imagine Roglic not just killing everyone is if he is peaking too early. I think he finished no better than 2nd or 3rd on any stage at Romandie. TT, sprint, hilltop finish,... the guy is on fire.

He's just inconsistent. Like van Garderen he showed immense Grand Tour promise early (2nd GC in the Giro in '16) but has had the van Garderen trademark Really Bad Day (tm) in every GT since. He's seemed to have slipped down to 4th in Mitchelton-Scott's GC pecking order, behind the Yates' and Jack Haig. And 4th means you're essentially a climbing domestique.

My thoughts exactly. He’s dominating right now, and if not too early, is going to be tough to beat.

Like has already been mentioned having Bernal gone is a big bummer because of all of the favorites he was probably the worst TT'r so he would have been really setting the hills on fire.
I think we still have 5 guys that all have a pretty equal chance to win if the chips fall right, in Yates, Roglic, Doumalin, Nibali and I am going to put Lopez in there as well, since Astana has been riding really strong this year.

An interesting sidestory will be to see how Sep Kuss does on the big stage in support of Roglic, he wasn't slated to race the Giro, but with Gesink crashing out at Liege Kuss is taking his spot as the big climbing domestique.

At the moment I am going to pick Roglic considering how tattlingly close he came to the podium a the Tour last year without even starting the race really focusing on GC, now that he has had a full winter and spring training with the focus of the Giro he should be the best, of course he will also have much more pressure so we shell see.

That is what I was thinking...he was also untouchable going back to the UAE tour...long time to hold great form when we're talking about the finish at the Verona 1 month away from now and that TT is after 4 mountain stage in 5 days after the rest day...so if you're flat after the rest day, then its two days of mountain grinding, one flat stage 2 days of mountains and a TT. Froome needed to be on fire in that last week to pull up the magic trick (we can debate what Sky magic was involved....but whatever....Yates was flat in week 3). Hopefully Roglic is not on form too early.

I'm personally hoping for Dumoulin after two second places last year in the Giro and TdF and at the World's he was 2nd in the ITT, 2nd in the TT and he came oh so close to the win in the road race briding the gap and then slipping to 4th...would have much rather seen him win than Valverde.

Dumoulin would be my sentimental pick as well

One hopes that his sport directors would be wiser this year. That whole fiasco of waiting for dropped riders really cost him. I think he actually lost 30 seconds on the descent due to waiting. Then there's the additional lack of incentive for the group to work together in the finale, with Carapaz attacking Angel Lopez and vice versa. The podium/overall seemed gone for them, so they were trying to drop each other for best young rider; however, Dumoulin would have benefited more from steady riding. This sort of riding always happens when there's too many strong riders in a race in the closing stages.

super excited for the Giro and I'm also expecting haymakers and bad days to alter this race.
hope that the big stars don't just look at each other and wait but it is the Giro so unexpected is always on tap

When you have perfect information, it's easy to come up with the perfect strategy. I didn't consider TD's strategy, given the information he had at the time, to be bad. Watching live, I didn't think Froome had a great chance at soloing for 80K, even with the chasers not having perfectly aligned interests. I would have called what I thought was Froome's bluff in the same situation, let him dangle and wear himself out, then attack him up the final climb. Just turns out it was something extroardinary, and not a bluff.

good call. Fog of (simulated) war and all that

Yates will be looking to correct his flame out from last year, but I also think Dumoulin figures he let last year's race slip away too. And Roglic sure looks good right now. One of them will win. (Or not.) Nibali might be too long in the tooth to win, but who knows? Lopez might sneak in. How many stages will Gaviria win? And with Bernal out, what's the plan for Ineos? It will be an entertaining three weeks of cycling.

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

Agreed we should all keep an eye on Kuss. He was on great form last year for California, and was ready to defend the title until he got the Giro call.

I am so bummed about Bernal being out. It was building up to be a great race for him.
I will make this prediction right now. Bernal will win the Vuelta this year!

I would have loved to see Woods or Fulsang racing but I am guessing they are both going to the TDF.

On paper it should be a Yates/TD/Roglic battle with Lopez/Nibali/Movistar keeping things interesting, but the beautiful thing about the Giro, all of it may happen or none of it may happen, its a great unpredictable race.

Maybe this is the year Dombrowski wins a stage. Seems like EF1 does not have a set GC leader.

Too many stages seem more suited for Ulissi than they are for Gaviria. I counted maybe 3 true sprinter stages. All the others seems tailored for the break.

Agree that the Giro is totally unpredictable. One bad day at the wrong time and it's something that can end your GC hopes. I just pray that a crash or mechanical isn't the deciding factor like is has been in the past.

That said, I agree it's hard to pick against Roglic the way he's running. But if I'm his team director, you learn from Yates' mistakes last year. I really think he's got to pick his spots wisely in the first 2 weeks, especially since he seems to be coming in with a peak. He's got to make it last all the way through stages 16-21. I think if Roglic gets a little too frisky, Dumoulin might be able to take advantage with his experience and pounce on him during week 3.

If he races the Giro like he did Romandie that 3rd week could be a repeat of last year. My guess is he won't considering missing the TdF podium with a haymaker that led to stage win but used too much energy. That's where Nibali is especially dangerous, and more adept at picking someone's pocket than anyone else.

One side convo to this is not seeing Kuss have leadership at ToC, in the perfect course for him. No TT and some really long, grinding climbs like those that were his personal playground at Utah last year.

If I was the Sunweb director, I would have played it how they did....count on the TTT effect with other team riders to make it happen vs a solo ITT chase of Froome. The slight miscalculation was discounting Froome's descending on the group (solo guy can beat a group), and Sky's plan with Nic portal to have the moving aid station and endless sticky bottles to slingshot Froome 'often enough'....whereas the group would not have all of that.

Viviani and DQS won't want to let breaks get away, which doesn't mean a break won't have a chance. The sprints ought to be interesting between Gaviria and Viviani, with Ewan and Demare also there.

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"Human existence is based upon two pillars: Compassion and knowledge. Compassion without knowledge is ineffective; Knowledge without compassion is inhuman." Victor Weisskopf.

Really looking forward to seeing Kuss on the big stage. Italia is not Cali.
Joe D has settled into a nice domestic groove but maybe he can get up the road one day. I'm sure they've targeted a stage. He's learned a lot since getting punked by Nibs in the break.
I'm hoping TD is riding into form now and maybe Roglic is peaking, but he's looking very beastly right now. That was a helluva TT in Romandie.
Formolo should have a good tour.

Good call re: Formolo

I, too, am hoping that Dombrowski and Kuss will do well

Another sleeper might be Richard Carapaz. He could improve on last year's 4th.