Yes. This exactly. This is my understanding of the course as well. Which plays right in Sam's strengths.

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Mcnamee is out--not happy with form/physical state. I'm a big fan of his and thought he would do better at St. G but seems like he's on it and maybe pivoting to a Kona focus...

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Randy Christofferson(http://www.rcmioga.blogspot.com

Insert Doubt. Erase Hope. Crush Dreams.

Can confirm. Drove the course today and the roads (and bike course as a whole) are terrible. Like dangerously terrible, especially on some of the back-road descents and I have no idea how they're going to handle the traffic control. The course crosses a lot of major intersections but also a ton of blind countryside intersections. Heard rumors that some of the pros are actually pulling out since it's so bad. Hope the pros come out OK.

Heard rumors that some of the pros are actually pulling out since it's so bad. //

More like you are starting one. I guarantee you that no pro is dropping this race because of the roads. They may have other reasons, and they might not like the roads and course, but no one will be DNS because of this. And I have ridden way worse roads in races, dozens fo times, and with 100's of fellow pros. Not once did it ever even occur to anyone to pull out from such a small thing. Now swimming through 10ft surf might actually scare a few into thinking that, but even then the professionals do their jobs, and at least attempt the race they entered and trained for, all other things on track...


And I know a lot of you are big Long fans, I am too. But given that both he and Lange on on their game, he has a tall order to beat the multiple world champion at his distance, and in the heat if it presents itself. I would say Sam needs at least 5 minutes out of T2 to have a chance, more like 7 or 8 to be able to run his marathon, rather than running scared from the chasing rabbit.


Lange is a front pack swimmer, so if there are good guys to push the pace, it will put a lot of pressure on Sam in the early bike miles, losing 3 to 6 minutes. Depending on how long and hard it is for him to catch, then break whatever group has formed and build that 5 minutes, that will determine what legs he will have to hold off a guy that routinely runs sub 2;40 on the hottest courses in the world. Lange just does not die on his good days, actually has enough to run 5;45 miles in the last k's. Now before you all jump in here and give me your made up scenarios, I said both guys on their day. I think we all know what that means, so no need to extrapolate too many what ifs...

READ: Heard. Not starting. Never said it was fact. But since you're so wise to know exactly what these roads are like and have apparently ridden it all...you are so amazing. My apologies for presenting a perspective that is so beneath you.

You missed my point, doesnt matter "at all" what the roads are like. They could be dirt with a 1000 pot holes. No pro is not going to race because of road condition that has been there forever(who has already entered the race to begin with). You can talk all you want about the conditions, but I know the mind of a pro, and to be frank, cannot even imagine any age groupers dropping the race because of roads..

Anybody worried that Long isn’t fully recovered from St. G? I know it was just a 70.3 and he’s a young guy but he went DEEP and that run course is brutal on the legs.

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Let food be thy medicine...

Anybody worried that Long isn’t fully recovered from St. G?//

There is not one iota of fatigue from that race left for him to deal with, it has long passed. Now that is not to say he has not trained himself into some extra fatigue he cannot shed, but that would be self inflicted, not from that race so long ago. Most pros of his caliber would be good to go in 5 or 6 days, week at most after a hard 70.3. Unless it caused an injury or illness, that would be the normal recovery time physically..

I guess I rode a different course than you drove or maybe I am used to something different. There are some rough sections but I didn’t even remotely see what you are describing. Again, could be just that we are used to different riding surfaces. I saw nothing though that would cause someone, much less a pro, to pull out of the race.

Spot on! Long will 100% have to put more than 5min going into T2. Long can run and maybe that's not fully appreciated yet, but he does not want to go head to head with Lange! Going to be so so so good! The reason for the anticipation is that if Long does beat Lange, if Lange is ON, it's a huge deal. Here's to hoping for a huge deal.

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

No mention of B Aernout. I see no reason that Aernout cannot win this race. And Lange same. I put Long in third place.
Sam will be still somewhat fatigued from St George. The vibe and hype will run dry during the run and he will fade. But as always its just conjecture.
I hope its hot and humid. all the potential winners want Kona so hopefully we will see how they handle the conditions.

Just stop, if Lange is ON he's not getting beat by anyone in this field.

And so, if/when Sam beats him by 4min, how would you rank/rate Sam then, in that hypothetical scenario?

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

I knew nothing about this race, so looked up the course and went to Google street view and was kind of shocked how bad the roads were.
The course looked quite beautiful though and I doubt a few bumps and cracks will matter much.

Lange only needs to finish to validate his 2018 win.
He has not been a barnburner when having to validate. A 3rd and 6th in Frankfurt.

I grew up in Denver as a Denver Broncos fan. I phased out of that in my 20's because I found the other Broncos fans I was surrounded by to be absolutely unbearable (don't know that this is unique to Denver, just my personal experience). Now I actively root against them just to try and shut those people up.

Starting to feel the same way about Sam Long.

Yeah, that is what happened to Prefontaine as well, and also why someone jumped out of a crowd and punched Merckx
#winning

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

Yup, my thinking as well. I'm sure he wants to compete but highly doubt he'll really put himself into a hole for it.

Do we know if Lange has any other races on his calendar right now?

IM has waived validating for auto-qualifiers this year. He doesn't have to race. I would hope he's gunning for the win. He could do a training day anywhere.

https://www.trirating.com/kona-2021/

We just saw recently that Lange was in pretty good form for a short race, not far off from Jan. So I would suspect that he is in fact in great shape, and moving to his real dominant distance, we should see a more competitive race at the front for him. I think the one thing that will shape this race more than anything, is the weather. Turn up the heat and Lange floats to the top, turn it down, and many others are going to crowd that front group, where it becomes more of a crapshoot who wins on the day.

If he is indeed already validated, I dont see this race as anything but an A race for him to get his mojo back. And he will need all of it to best this deep field of veterans and new comers, figure a 1/3 of the field will be having great days. So few races to be had, so probably some big tapers going on after very long build ups for most...

I agree about Aernouts. I would even favor him over Lang.

As for Long, - good you tube videos and an American accent shouldn't make you the favorite.

I'd think all, as in 100%, of his performances in 2020 and so far in 2021 are the evidence for him being in contention for likelihood to win

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

Jesus Christ, is the secret to making him a custom bike seat to shove your nose so far up his arse that it blocks out any form of common sense?

You've crossed a line into ad hominem attacks and I'd like to think that this isn't the community for that. I'd suggest taking a different tack, but that's your call.

I'm asking a sincere and objective question: If Sam wins by 4min over an ON Lange, what does that mean for Sam?

There is endless praise for Sanders and Frodeno on these messageboards, and rightfully so. This is a race thread and Sam is in this race, talking about Sam's chances in this race is not [insert your crude indicative-of-your-character phrase here]; it's speculation and fun. There's been zero speculation of my saddles contributing to Sam's performances on these messageboards: Zero. You made that connection and I prefer to leave those two things separate.

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wovebike.com | Wove on instagram

You must root against Lionel a bunch.

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