In Reply To:
So from your postings above, it would seem they definitely beat you because they had better equipment. How many did you beat at Nationals just because you're a better rider?
The relative importance of an "aero" bike versus a round-tube standard road bike ... significant.
The relative difference between "aero" bikes ... not very significant.
The biggest difference comes from getting the body into the aero position. It's the body that's responsible for most of the drag.
I've been racing the P3C for 18 months now and I still haven't beat the times I did previously on my P3sl. But I'm not getting any younger, either. OK, but I'm not even sure I think the round tubes make *that* much difference either. My best 40K ever was on a Panasonic DX2000 road frame converted to a TT bike with Syntace bullhorn bars and C2 clip ons. I raced it with Nimble Crosswinds and turned in a 56:56 (The marshall swears she didn't make up the number!) The fit was mostly done instinctively over that season, but I must have had a good position. That was in '99.
I'll believe an aero frame makes some difference since I traded in the Panasonic on a P2C, but I've still never beaten that time either. But comparatively speaking, the drag difference between the P3 and P2 has got to be tiny compared to the Panasonic and the difference of the P4 even smaller still.
Same as you, I'm getting older and I took a few years off. My best 40K time on the P2C is 58:31 with a wheelbuilder cover on the rear and still running a Nimble Crosswind on the front. (I can't afford that Zipp bling.)
I don't honestly believe the P3 or P4 would make me any faster on any given day. I do believe if I train my ass off, I might be able to break 56:00 next year.