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Re: Puts and Calls; help me understand [windywave] [ In reply to ]
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windywave wrote:
kjurka wrote:
So, forget Arista. What’s the best way to short the DJT SPAC without losing everything if the market continues to be irrational? Long term puts seem outrageously expensive for the limited upside.


Piss off fucking wanker...this is an apolitical thread



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Re: Puts and Calls; help me understand [windywave] [ In reply to ]
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windywave wrote:
kjurka wrote:
So, forget Arista. What’s the best way to short the DJT SPAC without losing everything if the market continues to be irrational? Long term puts seem outrageously expensive for the limited upside.


Piss off fucking wanker...this is an apolitical thread

Certainly there are aspects of politics here, but that's not my question. From a purely fundamentals analysis the DJT SPAC is not worth anywhere near its current market cap, which is virtually undisputed. The political considerations are:
  • How much do you believe Trump fans will pump and hold the stock solely because of the association?
  • How much do you believe Trump will win the election and promote Truth Social and expand its user base using that position? If the election is 50/50 at this point and he can convert lots of users by using Truth Social as his primary platform, that's a lot of potential upside possibly making the valuation sane.

So you have to answers those valuation questions for yourself (as with any stock pick), but if you still don't believe the current valuation, how do you take the opposite side? I see (post-election) 1/17/25 puts at a strike of 20 for 9.33. So from the current price of 66.22 it would have to fall to 11.67 just to break even which seems insane. I'm not taking a shot at Trump, I just think the current price is ridiculous and want a piece of it.
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Re: Puts and Calls; help me understand [kjurka] [ In reply to ]
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kjurka wrote:
windywave wrote:
kjurka wrote:
So, forget Arista. What’s the best way to short the DJT SPAC without losing everything if the market continues to be irrational? Long term puts seem outrageously expensive for the limited upside.


Piss off fucking wanker...this is an apolitical thread


Certainly there are aspects of politics here, but that's not my question. From a purely fundamentals analysis the DJT SPAC is not worth anywhere near its current market cap, which is virtually undisputed. The political considerations are:
  • How much do you believe Trump fans will pump and hold the stock solely because of the association?
  • How much do you believe Trump will win the election and promote Truth Social and expand its user base using that position? If the election is 50/50 at this point and he can convert lots of users by using Truth Social as his primary platform, that's a lot of potential upside possibly making the valuation sane.

So you have to answers those valuation questions for yourself (as with any stock pick), but if you still don't believe the current valuation, how do you take the opposite side? I see (post-election) 1/17/25 puts at a strike of 20 for 9.33. So from the current price of 66.22 it would have to fall to 11.67 just to break even which seems insane. I'm not taking a shot at Trump, I just think the current price is ridiculous and want a piece of it.

Its a meme stock.. buyer beware. If you really think its overvalued, short it...

Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.
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Re: Puts and Calls; help me understand [DavHamm] [ In reply to ]
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DavHamm wrote:
Its a meme stock.. buyer beware. If you really think its overvalued, short it...

That's my concern exactly, to short directly exposes unlimited downside. If big Trump fans (or market manipulators) continue to pump it, I've got to continue to back the short at my expense. I'd love to see a reasonable priced put or other option play, but I haven't found one. I'm a rank amateur, so was just wondering if others saw something else that had potential.
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Re: Puts and Calls; help me understand [kjurka] [ In reply to ]
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kjurka wrote:
DavHamm wrote:
Its a meme stock.. buyer beware. If you really think its overvalued, short it...


That's my concern exactly, to short directly exposes unlimited downside. If big Trump fans (or market manipulators) continue to pump it, I've got to continue to back the short at my expense. I'd love to see a reasonable priced put or other option play, but I haven't found one. I'm a rank amateur, so was just wondering if others saw something else that had potential.

Then stay out.

Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.
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Re: Puts and Calls; help me understand [windywave] [ In reply to ]
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windywave wrote:
kjurka wrote:
So, forget Arista. What’s the best way to short the DJT SPAC without losing everything if the market continues to be irrational? Long term puts seem outrageously expensive for the limited upside.


Piss off fucking wanker...this is an apolitical thread

Windy, just cause people want to play with DJT doesn't make it political. Reddit is alive (sorry forgot the subthread) with talk of buying it up, and then dumping, either before the 6 months or sooner if they change when the Donald can sell. There could be money to be had here, its a legit question.

But its your typical meme stock. Price does not have anything to do with corporate valuation.

Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.
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Re: Puts and Calls; help me understand [DavHamm] [ In reply to ]
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DavHamm wrote:
windywave wrote:
kjurka wrote:
So, forget Arista. What’s the best way to short the DJT SPAC without losing everything if the market continues to be irrational? Long term puts seem outrageously expensive for the limited upside.


Piss off fucking wanker...this is an apolitical thread

Windy, just cause people want to play with DJT doesn't make it political. Reddit is alive (sorry forgot the subthread) with talk of buying it up, and then dumping, either before the 6 months or sooner if they change when the Donald can sell. There could be money to be had here, its a legit question.

But its your typical meme stock. Price does not have anything to do with corporate valuation.

It belongs in a different thread to keep this unsullied
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Re: Puts and Calls; help me understand [windywave] [ In reply to ]
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windywave wrote:
DavHamm wrote:
windywave wrote:
kjurka wrote:
So, forget Arista. What’s the best way to short the DJT SPAC without losing everything if the market continues to be irrational? Long term puts seem outrageously expensive for the limited upside.


Piss off fucking wanker...this is an apolitical thread


Windy, just cause people want to play with DJT doesn't make it political. Reddit is alive (sorry forgot the subthread) with talk of buying it up, and then dumping, either before the 6 months or sooner if they change when the Donald can sell. There could be money to be had here, its a legit question.

But its your typical meme stock. Price does not have anything to do with corporate valuation.


It belongs in a different thread to keep this unsullied


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Re: Puts and Calls; help me understand [windywave] [ In reply to ]
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windywave wrote:
DavHamm wrote:
windywave wrote:
kjurka wrote:
So, forget Arista. What’s the best way to short the DJT SPAC without losing everything if the market continues to be irrational? Long term puts seem outrageously expensive for the limited upside.


Piss off fucking wanker...this is an apolitical thread


Windy, just cause people want to play with DJT doesn't make it political. Reddit is alive (sorry forgot the subthread) with talk of buying it up, and then dumping, either before the 6 months or sooner if they change when the Donald can sell. There could be money to be had here, its a legit question.

But its your typical meme stock. Price does not have anything to do with corporate valuation.


It belongs in a different thread to keep this unsullied

Well the subject line is Puts and Calls help me understand, the post seems in line with that, actually OP could do some bracketing to limit his downside also. But I am not going through that for a meme stock

Just Triing
Triathlete since 9:56:39 AM EST Aug 20, 2006.
Be kind English is my 2nd language. My primary language is Dave it's a unique evolution of English.
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Re: Puts and Calls; help me understand [Sweeney] [ In reply to ]
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Sorry - I don't log in too frequently, and didn't see this. At this point you might have already met with them. I am not familiar with the firm at all and don't know their fee structure. In theory, yes, the collar pays for itself. Although you mentioned something about only selling calls on 1/3 of the shares - does that mean the puts will only be for 1/3 of the shares too? Or are you selling calls barely out of the money and buying puts that are WAY out of the money to make up the ratio?

In terms of this being a good idea... I am not an advisor. I was a trader years ago, and have been in the business. I would say that your advisor has two responsibilities here. The first is to provide you with an objective view of risk, reward, and uncertainty, and that will likely steer you to a conversation around allocation and diversification. Barring some significant information you haven't mentioned, I am guessing that you are likely already very equity heavy for someone your age, and that your equity has a lot of exposure to just this stock. I think you know this too. But it is tough to sell a position that has been so rewarding thus far, and one in which you have a sentimental attachment since your son works there. I mean, if you already set for all your future living plus discretionary expenses and are playing the inheritance game, there is some benefit to holding those forever, and giving your fortunate heirs a stepped up cost basis in your taxable accounts upon your demise. ;)

In your position, I would likely skip the collar and just commit to reducing my exposure to Arista by dollar cost average selling at least a healthy portion over the next few years - ideally scaling out the position with a price continuing to rise. But, I also don't have the ability to "value" the sentimental attachment you have to the stock. Ideally, your view of the investment would be dispassionate and objective. But that isn't realistic here, at least at the moment. If selling out of the position brings you more sadness than the potential risk of losing a significant portion of your assets, then I think you need to recognize that and take it into consideration. Also, to be clear, I am not lobbing that as a criticism against you. This is a legitimate question that I think you need to process. (Minimally related anecdote: I have ridden the same bike for the past 13 years despite there being SIGNIFICANTLY better options for me out there for the kind of riding I do. But I derive value from riding the same bike today that I did over a decade ago.) Now maybe the advisor will be able to counsel you in a way that you can see the stock more objectively. But at the end of the day, it is your call.

And that takes me to the second responsibility the advisor has - given your objectives as an investor and whatever direction you go, they need to translate that into an investment strategy that accomplishes what you seek. As you are likely picking up from the resistance you have seen so far, collars are a bit unconventional, and at least in my experience seen by newbie investors as a magic bullet to eliminating all risk at no cost. Hence, I am often skeptical when I see someone who doesn't know how they work asking about them. Given the limited information we have about you though, I think it might make sense in this circumstance. It will give you some peace of mind about the bottom falling out and if your call options are exercised, you will be out of the position, but you might feel a little more positive since that means it would have exceeded your strike price. It is more acceptable to end on a high note for many people.

Good luck!
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