Hahaha, they just project production = vaccination.

They're gonna be in for a rude awakening, if the vaccines get distributed.
And I predict many will receive a shot that is no longer active or expired either due to storage or distribution problems.

But we can dream....

Thanks. Nice to see some of the detail underlying a relatively optimistic forecast. It’s notable how much some countries are dependent upon the AZ vaccine.

It doesn't look like that to me. It looks like they're basing the demand lines in the US and Canada charts off the "when would you get the shot survey" in the top right no? So in the US, because we're more shot-averse there isn't a time when "useable supply" goes unused, because the demand starts lower. In Canada by contrast the start point is almost 40% so there's a time where the dashed line is on its own which I'm interpreting to mean a 2 month window where there are Canadians who want the vaccine, there’s vaccine to give them but distribution is behind. At least that's what I think I'm seeing.

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"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

But his point is they aren’t taking into account logistics. Unless that hand that over to Walmart they are being highly optimistic.

First I heard they don’t expect the youth vaccine to be available until next Fall. Does that mean no international travel with kids without quarantine?

Are you sure? I read the fact the green line and the light blue production lines start off in sync as meaning that they expect to be able to distribute everything they can produce out of the gate. Maybe that's optimistic I've no idea (literally none), but it seems to fit. On your read where they're not accounting for logistics at all why does the green line diverge from the production one in Canada for a couple of months? My explanation / guess was in the prior post.

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"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

...and re. international travel, has there been any indication there'll be an international accord on resuming flights for vaccinated folks? I've seen some airlines saying it'll be a requirement when they're allowed to resume but nothing from governments indicating when that'll be. Also, random thought, are we going to get religious discrimination lawsuits is US airlines enforce a "proof of vaccine" requirement?

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"Are you sure we're going fast enough?" - Emil Zatopek

I had the same interpretation as you.

Haha, quick the Lavender Room needs to go teach Goldman Sachs how to do proper analysis of a logistics problem. :)

I'm pretty sure you're reading that wrong.

And I don't understand why so many people are throwing their hands up at the storage temperature issue as if it's like this really amazingly hard problem that we somehow just won't be able to handle. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine can be stored for 6 months in full cryo-storage state, and up to 20 days in a garden variety freezer. (2-8C). Though 15 of those 20 days are typically budgeted for shipping. Though I imagine most shipping won't take that long in the days of FedEx.

It's not *that* hard. There's nearly 3 full weeks from leaving the factory. You ship to places with known demand. I imagine by the time we (the U.S.) get to a stage where supply starts to outstrip demand over those 20 days we'll be in a pretty happy place overall. I'll be at my local hospital within 10 minutes of being notified there's a shot waiting for me.

And Pfizer has GPS tracking on each shipment. There are smart logistics people all over this. They'll know in real-time exactly where each batch is, and exactly how long it's been since it left cyro storage. And I imagine they'll have Walmart/Amazon grade logistics systems modelling demand, so they know exactly when-and-where to ship.

There are still smart people in the U.S., despite all the evidence to the contrary.

Well said.

The rate limiter here was always going to be the development of the vaccine. Supply chain/logistics/distribution won't be a problem.

I am far less concerned with the physical logistics of getting the vaccine distributed (and stored) and far more concerned about the final step. I have not seen anything from my state or county about basic logistics for a process that is supposed to begin in less than 3 weeks, or thereabouts. As one example: are we doing this on the honor system where the individual self-reports their age, job, BMI, health status, etc., or are we going to need to prove this to someone’s satisfaction to qualify for an early phase? Perhaps it’s all been thought out and is ready to roll.

My local public radio station just had a lengthy interview with the people in charge of that for my area.

They sounded generally like they were "on it." They've identified where the vaccine will be stored, and how they're going to "apply" to receive shipments from Operation Warp Speed/Pfizer/Moderna, et al.

They didn't answer specific questions about how to verify claims about pre-existing conditions, etc (nor were they asked), but they sure sounded like they understand the breadth of the issue.

Just a sheer guess about my own situation, but as a Kaiser member, I kind of presume that I'm waiting for them to contact me. My wife gets a lot of care from the VA, and has multiple pre-existing conditions that are part of her care there (MS and a chronic lung disease). So I kind of presume the VA may be her avenue, and she'd be pretty high on the list once the VA gets a batch, maybe just after the VA healthcare workers and the super old veterans.

This I think is the rub. When I went to the H1N1 clinic ten years ago with my kids just for fun to see how it is done in that setting. (Large public health immunizatiom) it took a long time to process people. Nurses inputting into computers names, health card numbers, dob etc. Then the consents, questions about allergies etc. Add in some sort of verification about if you are essential or high risk (unless under honor system) it could be slow. Doctors and nurses and pts in care homes should be able to do that fairly quickly.

The other issue is getting the last twenty percent of people vaccinated will be very important. If we have 60-70 percent of population immunized you still have possibility of virus circulating alot. People will want to have everything open and public health will have a hard time convincing need for any precautions. Hopefully immunity is long lasting. Although I think once you get to early summer we will have an even better summer than this year for sure.

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

It would appear UPS at the very least is on the case: https://www.marketwatch.com/...e-storage-2020-11-25

Yeah, if my doc’s office has a supply for its patients, that is easy. If I am getting the shot at CVS, then it’s not apparent whether someone will determine my eligibility.

There is alot of talk right now that the Canadian gov't may have fumbled the ball. Early on they partnered with a Chinese company who then wouldn't share the vaccine for a trial. Then they got on the Pfizer, Moderna trail late. At least that is what the talk is. There is no talk about when we may get the vaccine, more talk about how, "It is more important when we complete getting everyone the vaccine."

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They constantly try to escape from the darkness outside and within
Dreaming of systems so perfect that no one will need to be good T.S. Eliot

people want to know all the details of the plan so they can whine and complain about how stupid it is and how they’re smarter than the people implementing the plan